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Albertsons Companies Inc (ACI)

Undervalued
Consumer DefensiveGrocery StoresUnited States

Fundamental

54

Price

$11.61

Market Cap

$5.70B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Albertsons Companies is one of the largest food and drug retailers in the United States. At the end of fiscal 2025 (the 53 weeks ended 28 February 2026) it operated 2,244 supermarkets in 35 states and the District of Columbia under 22 local banners, including Albertsons, Safeway, Vons, Jewel-Osco and Shaw's. Inside those stores it runs 1,713 pharmacies, 1,240 coffee shops and 405 fuel centres, supported by 22 distribution centres and 19 manufacturing plants and about 280,000 employees. Customers buy in the store or order online for delivery (available from more than 2,200 locations) or Drive Up & Go curbside pickup (more than 2,100 stores), partly through Instacart, DoorDash and Uber. The company reports its operating divisions as a single reportable segment.

How it makes money

Albertsons makes money by buying goods and reselling them at a modest mark-up: almost all revenue is the till receipt of a grocery shopper, recognised at the point of sale. Fiscal 2025 net sales and other revenue were $83,172.5 million, of which $82,359.4 million came from retail sales and $813.1 million from other revenue such as wholesale, rental income and its retail media business. Because the company does not split into business segments, the only revenue breakdown it publishes is by product type: packaged groceries and general merchandise, fresh food, prescriptions filled in the in-store pharmacies, fuel, and a small residual. Own Brands — more than 14,000 private-label items under names like Signature SELECT and O Organics — generated $16.9 billion of those retail sales and carry a higher margin than national brands. Profitability rests on very thin margins across an enormous volume: in fiscal 2025 merchandise costs absorbed $58,789.1 million and employee costs $12,218.8 million, leaving income before income taxes of $267.8 million.

Revenue by segment

Non-perishables48.8%

Packaged and shelf-stable groceries plus general merchandise, health and beauty products sold to households doing their regular shop. It is the largest product category, $40,624.8 million in fiscal 2025, and its share has drifted slowly down as pharmacy has grown.

Fresh31.3%

Perishable food — produce, meat, deli, bakery, dairy — sold in store and through the digital channels. Worth $26,024.2 million in fiscal 2025, it is the part of the assortment retailers use to differentiate themselves on quality rather than price.

Pharmacy13.7%

Prescriptions, vaccinations and related services dispensed in 1,713 in-store pharmacies, largely paid by insurers and pharmacy benefit managers rather than by the patient directly. At $11,414.9 million it is the fastest-growing category, up from 10.4% of sales two years earlier.

Fuel4.6%

Petrol sold at 405 fuel centres attached to the stores, usually tied to the loyalty programme to pull shoppers into the supermarket. Revenue of $3,803.0 million in fiscal 2025 moves with the pump price and has been shrinking as a share of the total.

Other1.6%

A small residual of wholesale sales to third parties, rental income and other revenue such as the company's retail media business, worth $1,305.6 million in fiscal 2025.

Competitive moat

Scale · Narrow

What Albertsons has is local density rather than a true national advantage. With 2,244 stores, 22 distribution centres and 19 plants it can fill shelves cheaply in the regions where its banners are strong, and its 14,000-item Own Brands range ($16.9 billion of sales) earns more per unit than national brands. But the company itself describes the industry as intensely competitive and its margins as low: in fiscal 2025, $83.2 billion of sales produced $267.8 million of pre-tax income. Groceries are not a product customers are locked into — the next supermarket is usually a few minutes away — and Albertsons is smaller than Walmart and Costco, so the advantage does not extend to setting prices.

What drives demand

Defensive

People eat and fill prescriptions in every phase of the cycle, so volumes are remarkably stable: roughly 80% of sales are food and another 13.7% are pharmacy, both non-discretionary. What moves with the economy is not how much is sold but the mix and the margin — in hard times shoppers trade down to private label (helpful, since Own Brands are more profitable), buy fewer prepared and premium items, and cook at home more, which can actually raise grocery volumes. Food price inflation and deflation swing reported sales far more than recessions do, and the fuel category, 4.6% of revenue, simply follows the pump price. The offsetting pressure is competitive rather than cyclical: the risk is a rival taking the basket, not the basket disappearing.

Key risks

  • Competition in the industry is intense — The company states it competes with regional and national chains, supercentres, discounters and online retailers, that competitors have aggressively added locations and moved to multi-channel selling, and that profit margins in food retail are low — so it must keep investing in price, stores and digital capability simply to hold its share.
  • A large majority of employees are unionised — About 190,000 of roughly 280,000 associates work under collective bargaining agreements. Contracts covering 126,000 employees were renegotiated during fiscal 2025 and agreements covering a further 22,000 expire in fiscal 2026. The company warns that failing to agree acceptable terms could lead to strikes and significantly disrupt operations, and that increased wage and benefit costs flow straight through its thin margins.
  • Multiemployer pension plans — Albertsons contributed to 28 multiemployer pension plans in fiscal 2025. Poor investment performance in those plans can raise required contributions and pension expense, and withdrawing from a plan — for example by exiting a market — can trigger a substantial withdrawal liability the company does not control.
  • Changes in the healthcare industry and pharmacy reimbursement — Consolidation among insurers and pharmacy benefit managers has created counterparties with greater bargaining power over reimbursement rates, and the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program taking effect in 2026 lets the federal government negotiate prices on selected drugs. The company says these developments could reduce its pharmacy revenue and profitability — a risk that matters more now that pharmacy is 13.7% of sales.
  • General economic conditions, inflation and deflation — The company describes a double bind: food deflation can reduce sales growth and earnings, while food inflation can compress gross margin rates and push shoppers to spend less or trade down. It adds that it is difficult for food retailers to deliver positive identical-store sales growth consistently.
  • Dependence on energy and fuel — Running stores, distribution centres, manufacturing plants and a delivery fleet requires significant energy and fuel, and the company lists volatility or unavailability of that supply as a risk to its operations and costs.
  • Failure to keep up with changing consumer preferences — Albertsons flags the risk of not identifying or responding quickly enough to shifts in what customers want and how they want to buy it — the assortment they expect, and the growing share of orders placed digitally for delivery or curbside pickup.

Customer concentration

There is no customer concentration to report: Albertsons sells to millions of individual shoppers through 2,244 stores and its digital channels, and the 10-K discloses no major customer. The concentration that does exist is on the other side of the till — the company states that it is not dependent on any individual supplier and that only one third-party supplier represented more than 5% of its sales in fiscal 2025, which in food and drug retail is typically the wholesale drug distributor supplying the pharmacies. A separate, indirect concentration sits in pharmacy, where a handful of insurers and pharmacy benefit managers, not the patients, set the reimbursement Albertsons receives.

The case for

Buyers argue that this is a defensive, cash-generating business bought at the price of a struggling one. Sales grew 3.5% to $83.2 billion in fiscal 2025 without the company opening much, driven by pharmacy — up from 10.4% to 13.7% of sales in two years — and by digital orders, which grew far faster than the store base. They point to Own Brands at $16.9 billion, a higher-margin range the company controls end to end through its own 19 plants, and to a retail media business inside the 'Other' line that monetises shopper data at margins a supermarket cannot earn on groceries. They also note that fiscal 2025 pre-tax income of $267.8 million was struck after $802.9 million of legal and regulatory accruals and $84.1 million of merger-related costs — items they read as one-off — against retail segment EBITDA of $4,401.0 million, so the underlying cash generation is far larger than the reported bottom line suggests.

The case against

Sellers fear a business with almost no room for error. Fiscal 2025 turned $83.2 billion of sales into $267.8 million of pre-tax income: merchandise cost $58,789.1 million and employees $12,218.8 million, so a small move in either wipes out the result — and the company itself says food inflation squeezes gross margin while deflation squeezes sales. They point to 190,000 unionised associates, contracts covering 22,000 more expiring in fiscal 2026, and 28 multiemployer pension plans whose contributions and withdrawal liabilities Albertsons does not control. The growth engine is the part sellers trust least: pharmacy, now 13.7% of sales, is paid by consolidated insurers and benefit managers with rising bargaining power, and from 2026 by a federal drug price negotiation programme the company warns could hurt its revenue and profitability. Behind all of it sits an intensely competitive industry where Walmart, Costco and online grocers are larger, the customer is a few minutes from another store, and the $802.9 million of legal and regulatory accruals booked in fiscal 2025 suggests such charges are not always as exceptional as they look.

Generated on September 17, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 17, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 38.8Score: 44Market cap: $35.25B

The other large traditional US supermarket operator, running multi-banner grocery and in-store pharmacy formats that overlap with Albertsons' banners in most of the same metropolitan markets.

P/E: 37.7Score: 58Market cap: $853.59B

The largest seller of groceries in the United States, whose supercenters pull the same weekly food shop away from Albertsons stores on price.

P/E: 45.8Score: 69Market cap: $397.57B

A membership club whose food, fresh and pharmacy business takes bulk grocery spending from the same households Albertsons serves in the West.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V.AD

Its US banners — Stop & Shop, Giant, Food Lion and Hannaford — are conventional supermarkets competing store-for-store with Albertsons' ACME, Shaw's and Star Market on the East Coast.

Publix Super Markets, Inc.Not tracked

A conventional full-service supermarket chain competing for the same middle-market grocery customer in the Southeast, where Albertsons has little presence but Publix sets the service standard.

H-E-B, LPNot tracked

The dominant privately held supermarket chain in Texas, competing head-on with Albertsons' Tom Thumb, Randalls, United Supermarkets and Market Street banners.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$83.23B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/20/2026)

Net Income

$66M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/20/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$527M

Total Equity

$1.84B

Total Liabilities

$24.93B

Current Ratio

0.84

Interest Coverage

1.60

Debt/EBITDA

5.94

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$27.12

Current Price

$11.61

Margin of Safety

+57.2%

Fair Value Range

$17.63 - $36.62

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$14.19
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$84.26
Earnings multiple (P/E):$1.07
Graham growth formula:$1.20
Earnings power value (EPV):$11.55
Justified P/B:$1.30
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:$70.26
Mid-cycle earnings:$55.16
Revenue multiple:$197.92
Analyst Consensus:Hold (11B / 13H / 2S)
Last Earnings Surprise:-23.09%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

72.56

ROE

11.8%

P/B Ratio

3.49

P/FCF

9.99

Gross Margin

27.0%

ROIC

2.3%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

2.3%

WACC

3.8%

ROIC − WACC

-1.5 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (11)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 22.28%
  • P/FCF 9.99
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 35.63
  • Share Dilution -7.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Failed (15)

  • Price CAGR -6.06%
  • ROIC 2.3%
  • Gross Margin 27.0%
  • P/B Ratio 3.49
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 0.7%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 2.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 3.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 42% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 0.4%
  • Net Margin Trend 0.1% vs 1.2%

Unavailable (2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

35.63

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-7.0%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Ms. Susan D. MorrisCEO & Director56
Ms. Sharon L. McCollam CPAPresident & CFO62
Mr. Anuj Dhanda Ph.D.Executive VP and Chief Technology & Transformation Officer62
Ms. Jennifer SaenzExecutive VP & Chief Commercial Officer47
Mr. Thomas Michael Moriarty J.D.Executive Vice President of M&A and Corporate Affairs61
Mr. Robert B. LarsonSenior VP & Chief Accounting Officer54
Mr. Cody PerdueSenior Vice President of Treasury, Investor Relations and Risk Management-
Mr. Justin EwingExecutive Vice President of Corporate Development & Real Estate56
Ms. Allison PinkhamExecutive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer50
Mr. Wayne A. DenninghamExecutive Vice President of California Region63

Audit Risk

6

Board Risk

2

Compensation Risk

3

Shareholder Rights Risk

2

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-04-27

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-07-28

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-30

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ACI, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 4/14/2026NEGATIVE
    Albertsons cites slower GLP-1 growth, higher gas prices for a sales miss and downbeat outlook

    Albertsons reported a sales miss, with revenue falling short of expectations due to slower growth in GLP-1 medications and higher gas prices impacting consumer spending. The grocery chain also announced a significant $774 million settlement to resolve opioid-related claims. These combined factors have led to a downbeat outlook for the company. For investors, the miss signals potential headwinds in consumer behavior and ongoing legal liabilities, which could weigh on future performance and profitability.

  • 4/10/2026NEUTRAL
    Albertsons Gears Up For Q4 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts

    Albertsons is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on April 14, with analysts projecting revenue of $20.47 billion. The company's stock, ACI, has seen mixed analyst ratings, with an accuracy range of 60-68% for recent predictions. While specific rating changes are not detailed in this update, the mixed sentiment suggests a cautious outlook from Wall Street. Investors will be closely watching the earnings report for any significant deviations from expectations, which could influence future analyst actions and stock performance.

  • 2/20/2026NEGATIVE
    Inside a $75 Million Albertsons Stock Sale as Shares Sink 8% in a Year

    News of a $75 million Albertsons stock sale, occurring as the stock has fallen 8% in a year, suggests selling pressure or a lack of confidence from insiders or large investors. This event, coupled with the stock's decline, indicates negative sentiment.

via Markets Gazette