Arm Holdings plc (ARM)
OvervaluedFundamental
48
Price
$289.66
Market Cap
$327.17B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Arm designs the instruction set architecture and processor blueprints used in nearly all smartphones and most connected devices, from watches to servers. It does not manufacture chips; it licenses its designs to chipmakers like Qualcomm, Apple and Samsung, who build and sell the physical silicon. Once a niche player in mobile CPUs, Arm's low-power architecture is now expanding into data-center servers, automotive systems and AI accelerators, chasing markets long dominated by Intel and AMD's x86 designs.
How it makes money
Arm earns money two ways: an upfront licensing fee when a chipmaker signs on to use an architecture, and a royalty paid on every chip shipped that contains an Arm design, typically a small percentage of the chip's selling price. Royalties compound over the life of a product family and now outweigh licensing fees in most years. Because Arm designs rather than fabricates, it carries almost no manufacturing cost, so each additional royalty dollar converts to profit at a very high rate.
Revenue by segment
Per-chip fees paid by licensees on every device shipped using an Arm design, across smartphones, data centers, automotive and IoT.
Upfront and milestone fees paid by chipmakers to access an Arm architecture or subsystem design, before any chip ships.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · WideChipmakers build years of software, tooling and engineering expertise around Arm's instruction set before a single chip ships. Re-architecting a product line onto a different instruction set means rewriting compilers, drivers and applications — a multi-year, high-risk undertaking most licensees avoid, which keeps them paying royalties long after the original licensing decision was made.
What drives demand
CyclicalRoyalty revenue tracks how many chips get shipped worldwide, and chip shipments follow the same boom-and-bust cycles as the smartphone and PC markets that still generate most of Arm's royalties. A slowdown in device sales shows up in Arm's results a year or more later, once the affected chip generation reaches customers.
Key risks
- Arm China and customer concentration — Arm China operates under a separate joint-venture structure that Arm does not fully control, and the top five customers together provide more than half of revenue; a dispute with any of them affects results disproportionately.
- Competition from RISC-V and x86 — Customers building chips on the open, royalty-free RISC-V architecture, or using x86 designs, could reduce over time the number of chips built on Arm's technology.
- Move into production silicon — Arm's push into building its own chips and subsystems, rather than only licensing designs, risks competing directly with the same customers who license its architecture.
- China exposure and geopolitics — A large share of revenue is tied to China, where government policy, trade restrictions and the unusual governance of Arm China create risks outside Arm's control.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 57% of revenue
In fiscal 2026 the top five customers, including SoftBank-affiliated Arm China, made up about 57% of revenue, with Arm China alone accounting for roughly 16%. A single large licensee's plans move the whole company.
The case for
Buyers argue that Arm's architecture already sits inside nearly every smartphone and now stands to gain from server and AI chips that carry a far higher royalty per unit, converting device-count growth into a lasting increase in revenue per chip.
The case against
Sellers worry that RISC-V's free licensing model erodes Arm's pricing power over time, that dependence on a handful of huge customers — several of them exploring in-house designs — leaves little room for error, and that Arm China's separate ownership structure could cut off a large slice of revenue.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on August 23, 2026 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users
Synopsys licenses processor and DesignWare IP blocks under the same license-plus-royalty model, competing with Arm for the IP budget of the same SoC design teams.
Cadence licenses Tensilica processor and DSP cores plus a broad IP catalogue to the same semiconductor customers, offering an alternative to buying the compute block from Arm.
SiFive licenses commercial RISC-V CPU cores to the same chipmakers that would otherwise license Arm cores, making it the leading alternative in the open-architecture camp Arm's own 20-F flags as a competitive threat.
Andes sells 32- and 64-bit RISC-V processor IP into embedded, microcontroller and consumer SoCs, competing head-on with Arm's Cortex-M and Cortex-A cores especially among Asian chip designers.
Imagination licenses GPU and AI accelerator IP for mobile and automotive SoCs, the same design slots Arm fills with its Mali and Immortalis graphics cores.
Ceva licenses DSP, wireless connectivity and edge-AI cores to chipmakers on a license-and-royalty basis, overlapping with Arm in the signal-processing and edge inference blocks of the same devices.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$5.16B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$1.04B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$1.33B
Total Equity
$8.63B
Total Liabilities
$485M
Current Ratio
5.25
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.46
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$210.94
Current Price
$289.66
Margin of Safety
-37.3%
Fair Value Range
$137.11 - $284.77
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
319.10
ROE
13.4%
P/B Ratio
37.91
P/FCF
245.16
Gross Margin
97.5%
ROIC
3.4%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
3.4%
WACC
18.0%
ROIC − WACC
-14.6 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (11)
- Price CAGR 64.16%
- Gross Margin 97.5%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- ROE 13.0%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 19.4%
- Analyst Consensus 60% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 8.3%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.32
Failed (8)
- ROIC 3.4%
- P/FCF 245.16
- P/B Ratio 37.91
- CapEx intensity
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- PEG Ratio 19.49
- Net Margin Trend 18.4% vs 19.8%
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Unavailable (8)
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Rene Anthony Andrada Haas | CEO & Director | 63 |
| Mr. Jason E. Child | Executive VP & CFO | 56 |
| Mr. Eric Hayes | Executive Vice President of Operations | - |
| Laura Bartels | Chief Accounting Officer | - |
| Mr. Jeffrey Thomas Kvaal | VP & Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Spencer Collins | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer, Company Secretary & Head of Corporate Development | 43 |
| Ms. Ami M. Badani | Chief Marketing Officer | 46 |
| Ms. Charlotte Eaton | Chief People Officer | 41 |
| Mr. Richard Grisenthwaite | Executive VP & Chief Architect | 56 |
| Mr. William Abbey | Executive VP & Chief Commercial Officer | 54 |
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for ARM, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 10d agoPOSITIVEPerché il titolo ARM sta salendo del 15% lunedì?
Arm Holdings plc shares surged over 15% on Monday, propelled by a broad recovery in artificial intelligence-related stocks and a broader semiconductor sector uplift. This rally is further supported by declining US Treasury yields and crude oil prices, easing pressure on growth-oriented tech stocks. The significant jump extends Arm's strong rebound, adding over 27% in the past five trading sessions. This follows a sharp decline last week attributed to concerns over a potential slowdown in AI development and spending. The positive momentum indicates renewed investor confidence in Arm's AI-driven growth prospects.
- 14d agoPOSITIVEAzioni Arm +7%: l'AD fiducioso sulla domanda di CPU da $2B
Arm Holdings plc shares surged 7% on Thursday following CEO Rene Haas's expressed confidence in meeting Wall Street's elevated revenue expectations for its new AGI CPU data center chip. Haas indicated increased certainty in achieving $2 billion in demand for the chip, surpassing previous guidance. This positive outlook comes as investors focus on Arm's capacity to secure manufacturing capabilities for its internally developed data center CPU. The strong performance suggests renewed investor optimism in Arm's growth trajectory and its competitive positioning in the high-demand data center market.
- 17d agoNEGATIVEArm -7%: svendita AI e rischi di valutazione penalizzano il designer di chip
Arm Holdings shares plunged 7% in pre-market trading Monday amid a broad risk-off sentiment impacting tech and semiconductor stocks. The sharp decline in the Nasdaq Composite exacerbated pressure on high-multiple chip design firms. This sell-off follows warnings from AI leaders about the risks of accelerated AI development, hitting AI-related stocks. Arm's valuation has been a key investor concern, and the stock remains significantly below its earlier all-time high of $452.70. An HSBC analyst's commentary further weighed on the stock, highlighting ongoing valuation worries.
- 6/10/2026NEGATIVEWhat Is Going On With Arm Stock On Wednesday?
Arm Holdings (ARM) experienced a 4.46% decline, closing at $310.79 on Wednesday. This downturn is attributed to a general profit-taking trend across the broader market, which notably impacted the semiconductor sector. Investors are observing this movement as a typical market correction rather than a company-specific issue. The semiconductor industry, having seen significant gains, is now undergoing a period of consolidation as traders adjust their positions. This broad market sentiment suggests a temporary pullback for ARM and its peers.
- 6/4/2026POSITIVEArm’s $218 Billion Leap Makes It One of Market’s Priciest Stocks
Arm Holdings Plc has experienced a dramatic surge, nearly doubling its share price in recent weeks and pushing its valuation to exceptionally high levels. This rapid ascent has made Arm one of the market's priciest stocks, with its American depositary receipts trading at a significant premium since their 2023 issuance. The stock's performance indicates strong investor enthusiasm and a potentially optimistic outlook for the company's future growth prospects, despite the elevated valuation.
- 6/2/2026NEUTRALArm CEO Warns China CPU Curbs May Be Impossible To Enforce— 'They Would Have To Limit Everything'
Arm Holdings CEO Rene Haas has expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of enforcing export restrictions on AI CPUs to China, contrasting the situation with Nvidia's GPUs. Haas indicated that such controls would necessitate limiting a vast array of technologies due to the pervasive use of Arm's architecture across numerous applications. This stance suggests that while geopolitical tensions may lead to regulatory scrutiny, the fundamental business model of Arm, which licenses its designs, may prove more resilient to broad export bans than anticipated. Investors will monitor potential impacts on Arm's China revenue stream and the company's ability to navigate complex international trade policies.
- 6/2/2026POSITIVEArm CEO Haas on Agentic AI and Taiwan's Ecosystem
Arm CEO Rene Haas highlighted Taiwan's crucial role in the AI development ecosystem, suggesting strong future partnerships. Furthermore, Haas anticipates that the rapid advancement of agentic AI will lead to substantial growth in CPU demand. This dual focus on strategic regional collaboration and the projected surge in processing power requirements for advanced AI applications positions Arm favorably. Investors should note the company's potential to benefit from both ecosystem strength and increased chip demand driven by next-generation AI technologies.
- 6/1/2026POSITIVEArm’s stock may be the biggest beneficiary of Nvidia’s new AI effort
Nvidia's latest AI effort, the RTX Spark PC chip, incorporates Arm's foundational technology. This strategic integration signifies a significant endorsement of Arm's architecture for next-generation computing, particularly in the rapidly expanding AI sector. For investors, this partnership suggests a substantial revenue stream and market share expansion for Arm, as Nvidia's chip designs are widely adopted. The news positions Arm as a key enabler of AI advancements, potentially leading to increased demand for its intellectual property and licensing agreements, thereby driving stock value.
- 5/21/2026POSITIVEA New Chipmaker Just Topped Micron's 2026 Return, Thanks To Nvidia
Arm Holdings plc experienced a significant surge, climbing 38% over three trading sessions. This impressive rally has propelled Arm past Micron in the 2026 return rankings within the SOXX semiconductor index. The primary catalyst for this upward momentum appears to be the strong performance and positive outlook stemming from Nvidia's recent earnings report, indicating robust demand and potential for Arm's chip designs in next-generation technologies.
via Markets Gazette