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Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE)

Fair Value
EnergyOil & Gas E&PCanada

Fundamental

57

Price

$4.53

Market Cap

$3.21B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Baytex is a Calgary-based oil and gas producer that pumps crude oil and natural gas out of the ground in Western Canada and sells it into commodity markets. After selling its U.S. Eagle Ford shale assets in December 2025, it is now a pure Canadian producer, with heavy oil fields in Peace River and Lloydminster and light oil in the growing Duvernay and Viking formations. It does not refine or retail fuel — it only extracts and sells raw hydrocarbons.

How it makes money

Baytex earns revenue by selling barrels of oil and cubic metres of natural gas at prices it does not control — set by global crude benchmarks and, for its heavy oil, by a discount to those benchmarks that reflects transport and blending costs. It books a sale the moment production is delivered to a pipeline or buyer; there are no long-term supply contracts locking in price. Profitability depends almost entirely on the gap between the market price received and the cost of extracting each barrel.

Revenue by segment

Heavy Oil74.9%

Thick, discounted crude from Peace River and Lloydminster that requires blending with lighter diluent before it can move through pipelines.

Light Oil and Condensate21.8%

Higher-value light crude, increasingly from the growing Duvernay formation, priced closer to benchmark levels than heavy oil.

Natural Gas Liquids1.8%

Natural gas liquids such as propane and butane recovered alongside oil and gas production.

Natural Gas1.6%

Natural gas produced alongside the oil, a small and stable share of total sales.

Competitive moat

No identified moat · None

Baytex sells an undifferentiated commodity at prices set by global and regional benchmarks it cannot influence. Its heavy oil assets carry no pricing power — buyers pay a standard discount to WCS regardless of who produced the barrel — and any competitor with capital and drilling rights can access the same Alberta formations.

What drives demand

Cyclical

Revenue rises and falls with global oil prices, which are set by OPEC+ supply decisions, global demand and pipeline capacity out of Western Canada. The 2025 divestiture of Eagle Ford removed exposure to U.S. shale economics but concentrated the company further on a single, cyclical commodity: Canadian heavy and light oil.

Key risks

  • Commodity price volatility — Baytex states that its financial condition is highly sensitive to prevailing crude oil and natural gas prices, which are set by factors entirely outside its control, including OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical events.
  • Need to keep replacing reserves — Oil and gas reserves deplete as they are produced, so long-term results depend on finding and developing new reserves at acceptable cost, with no assurance the company will succeed at economic prices.
  • Pipeline capacity and heavy-oil discount — Insufficient pipeline capacity to move Canadian crude to market has repeatedly forced Canadian producers to accept steep discounts to benchmark prices, and the company does not control the regulatory processes governing new pipeline capacity.
  • Climate regulation and emissions costs — Baytex is subject to evolving emissions, carbon and environmental regulation, with no assurance its capital budget will be sufficient to cover future obligations tied to greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Indigenous land and rights claims — Opposition by Indigenous groups to the company's operations or development activities could delay projects, raise legal and advisory costs, and damage its ability to explore and develop new properties.

The case for

Buyers argue that the Eagle Ford sale simplified the story into a focused, lower-decline Canadian heavy-oil and Duvernay producer with a much lighter debt load, freeing cash flow for buybacks and giving the market a cleaner read on the value of its Alberta acreage.

The case against

Sellers fear that concentrating entirely on Canadian heavy oil leaves the company more exposed to WCS price swings and pipeline bottlenecks than before, with less geographic diversification to cushion a downturn in any single basin.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.TVE

Tamarack is the largest pure-play producer in Alberta's Clearwater heavy oil fairway, drilling the same multi-lateral wells for the same heavy crude barrels that now form the core of Baytex's Canadian business.

Obsidian Energy Ltd.OBE

Obsidian develops heavy oil in the Peace River and Bluesky-Clearwater area, acreage directly adjacent to Baytex's Peavine and Peace River properties, and sells the same blended heavy barrel to the same refiners.

Rubellite Energy Corp.RBY

Rubellite is a smaller Clearwater and Mannville Stack heavy oil specialist competing with Baytex for the same undrilled land, the same drilling crews and the same heavy oil buyers in Alberta.

Strathcona Resources Ltd.SCR

Strathcona is a pure-play Canadian heavy oil producer built around Lloydminster and Cold Lake, the same Western Canadian heavy crude market where Baytex's Lloydminster assets sell their production.

Whitecap Resources Inc.WCP

Whitecap is one of the largest Western Canadian producers and the biggest Duvernay landholder, competing with Baytex both for Duvernay liquids-rich volumes and for the same Canadian energy investors and acquisition targets.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$892M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$-717M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$-226M

Total Equity

$1.52B

Total Liabilities

$149M

Current Ratio

2.82

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

0.21

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

CyclicalFairly Valued

Fair Value

$5.22

Current Price

$4.53

Margin of Safety

+13.2%

Fair Value Range

$4.96 - $5.48

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:Not enough data to compute it
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):Not enough data to compute it
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):$5.22
Justified P/B:Not applicable to this type of company
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not applicable to this type of company
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Analyst Consensus:Buy (8B / 6H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+153.03%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

32.28

ROE

-8.8%

P/B Ratio

2.12

P/FCF

-

Gross Margin

59.0%

ROIC

32.4%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

32.4%

WACC

7.7%

ROIC − WACC

+24.7 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (8)

  • ROIC 32.4%
  • Gross Margin 59.0%
  • P/B Ratio 2.12
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 12.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 57% Buy

Failed (7)

  • Price CAGR -0.63%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE 4.9%
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1502.9%
  • Net Margin Trend -18.2% vs 5.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

Unavailable (12)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-Score

2/9

Serious financial concerns

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

-

Low quality: investigate accounting

Share Dilution

-

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Chad E. LundbergPresident, CEO & Director43
Mr. Chad L. Kalmakoff C.A.Executive VP & CFO48
Mr. Kendall D. ArthurChief Operating Officer44
Mr. James R. MacleanSenior VP of Commercial & General Counsel45
Mr. Chris M.P. LessowayVP of Finance & Treasurer40

Audit Risk

7

Board Risk

10

Compensation Risk

4

Shareholder Rights Risk

1

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for BTE, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/5/2026NEUTRAL
    Baytex Energy (BTE) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript

    The Q4 2025 earnings transcript for Baytex Energy (BTE) has been released. While the detailed content is unavailable, the mere release of an earnings transcript is a standard event for publicly traded companies. This event, in itself, does not provide direct insight into the company's financial performance or future outlook. Therefore, without access to the actual earnings figures, guidance discussions, or analyst Q&A, it is impossible to determine a directional impact on the stock price. Investors will need to review the full document for implications.

via Markets Gazette