Back to rankings

Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG)

Overvalued
Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalUnited States

Fundamental

70

Price

$62.05

Market Cap

$27.29B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Citizens Financial Group is one of the largest regional banks in the United States, headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island. It takes deposits and makes loans through more than 1,000 branches across 14 states and the District of Columbia, and serves commercial clients nationally. At December 31, 2025 the 10-K reports total assets of $226.4 billion, total deposits of $183.3 billion and total stockholders' equity of $26.3 billion. Alongside traditional retail and commercial banking it runs Citizens Private Bank for wealthy households, with $61.9 billion of client assets ($35.9 billion under management and $26.0 billion transactional).

How it makes money

Like any bank, Citizens earns money in two ways. The larger part is net interest income — the difference between what it charges on loans and securities and what it pays on deposits and other funding — which was $5,853 million in 2025. The smaller part is noninterest income: card and service fees, mortgage banking, wealth management, capital markets and advisory work, foreign exchange and rate hedging sold to clients, which totalled $2,394 million in 2025. Together they made consolidated total revenue of $8,247 million in 2025, against $7,809 million in 2024, and net income of $1,831 million.

Revenue by segment

Consumer Bankingshare not disclosed

Serves households and small businesses with deposits, mortgages and home equity lending, credit cards, small business loans, education loans, point-of-sale finance and wealth management, and includes Citizens Private Bank for high-net-worth clients. It is by far the larger of the two reportable segments: total revenue of $6,224 million in 2025, of which $4,972 million net interest income and $1,252 million fees, and net income of $1,506 million.

Commercial Bankingshare not disclosed

Serves middle-market companies, large corporations and institutions with lending and leasing, deposit and treasury management, foreign exchange, interest rate and commodity hedging, loan syndication, corporate finance, M&A advisory and debt and equity capital markets. Total revenue was $2,773 million in 2025 — $1,778 million net interest income and $995 million fees — with net income of $865 million, so it is the smaller of the two segments and the one shrinking at the margin level.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Narrow

The durable advantage of a bank like this is its deposit base: $183.3 billion of deposits gathered from more than 1,000 branches and millions of everyday current accounts, which customers rarely move because direct debits, payroll and payment habits are tied to them. Cheap, sticky funding is what lets the bank lend profitably. But the advantage is narrow, not wide: Citizens has no pricing power over a national rival, digital banks can open an account in minutes, and the filing itself flags technological competition and the cost of keeping deposits as risks.

What drives demand

Cyclical

A regional bank's business follows the economic cycle closely, and from both ends. When growth is strong, households borrow for houses and cars, companies draw credit lines and invest, and the capital markets and advisory fees inside Commercial Banking pick up. When the cycle turns, loan demand falls, deal fees dry up, and loan losses rise at exactly the moment revenue is weakening. On top of that sits the interest rate cycle, which the filing lists as a risk in both directions: rates set by the central bank move the spread between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits, largely independently of how many customers it has.

Key risks

  • Interest rates cut both ways — The 10-K lists both rising and falling rates as separate risks: changes in rates affect profitability, and a decrease in rates can reduce net income. Net interest income is the bank's largest revenue line, so its earnings depend on a variable it does not control.
  • Borrower credit quality — The company discloses that deterioration in the credit quality of its borrowers is a principal risk, alongside the effectiveness of its risk management framework and the subjectivity of the estimates used to size loan loss reserves.
  • Liquidity and cost of funding — Access to liquidity and funding, and the cost of that funding, are disclosed risks — as is a reduction in the company's credit ratings, which would make borrowing more expensive.
  • Cybersecurity and technology dependence — The filing flags cyber threats, dependence on communications and information systems, reliance on third-party IT providers, and competition from technology-driven entrants in financial services.
  • Heavy and shifting regulation — A whole group of risk factors covers regulation: comprehensive supervision, restrictions on operations, evolving requirements, capital and liquidity standards, the obligation to act as a 'source of strength' for the subsidiary bank, regulatory enforcement actions, litigation, and anti-money-laundering compliance.
  • The holding company lives off its bank — Among the regulatory risks the company discloses that the parent's revenue depends on its subsidiary bank — dividends up from the bank can be restricted by regulators, which in turn constrains buybacks and the dividend to shareholders.
  • Economy, industry and climate — Industry-level risks disclosed include deterioration in national economic conditions, competitive pressure, physical and transition risks from climate change, and the effect the condition of other financial institutions can have on Citizens.

Customer concentration

The annual report does not disclose a share of revenue coming from the largest customers, and for a retail deposit-taking bank with $183.3 billion of deposits spread over millions of household and small-business accounts the question is largely moot. What the filing does describe is the concentration it actually manages: credit exposure to individual borrowers is governed by policy guidelines set on the perceived risk of each borrower or related group, with limits on industry sectors, asset classes and loan quality. Concentration risk for this company is a lending-portfolio matter, not a revenue-customer one.

The case for

Buyers argue that 2025 showed the turn they were waiting for: consolidated revenue rose to $8,247 million from $7,809 million and net income to $1,831 million from $1,509 million. They point to Consumer Banking, which grew revenue to $6,224 million and net income to $1,506 million, and to the Private Bank build-out, which brought client assets to $61.9 billion — a fee business that consumes little capital and is not hostage to the rate cycle. They also note that fee income grew to $2,394 million, making the bank a little less dependent on the spread on lending, and that a $183.3 billion deposit base gathered from over 1,000 branches is hard for a newcomer to replicate.

The case against

Sellers fear that the commercial half of the bank is going backwards: Commercial Banking revenue fell to $2,773 million in 2025 from $2,858 million in 2024 and $3,076 million in 2023, and its net income to $865 million from $1,153 million two years earlier, with net interest income there down to $1,778 million from $2,292 million. They also point out that the 'Other' category — treasury and community development, outside the two reportable segments — subtracted $750 million of revenue and $540 million of earnings in 2025, so the reported segment results flatter the group. Beyond the numbers, sellers note that the company itself discloses rate moves in both directions, borrower credit deterioration, funding cost and rating downgrades as principal risks, and that regulators can restrict the dividends flowing up from the bank to the holding company and therefore to shareholders.

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 11.5Score: 72Market cap: $31.84B

M&T runs a branch network across the same New England and Mid-Atlantic states, chasing the same retail deposits, small-business accounts and middle-market commercial lending relationships as Citizens.

P/E: 13.4Score: 62Market cap: $21.77B

KeyCorp is a super-regional bank of comparable size built on the same mix of consumer branch banking and middle-market commercial lending, with overlapping markets in the Northeast and the Midwest.

P/E: 12.2Score: 70Market cap: $89.23B

PNC competes head-on for the same Mid-Atlantic and Midwest households and corporate clients, offering the broader product range and larger balance sheet that Citizens' own filings cite as a competitive disadvantage against bigger banks.

P/E: 17.3Score: 66Market cap: $46.67B

Fifth Third overlaps with Citizens across the Midwest in retail deposits, mortgages and auto lending, and bids for the same middle-market commercial borrowers.

P/E: 11.7Score: 67Market cap: $31.04B

Huntington fights for the same low-cost consumer deposits and small-business relationships in the Midwest markets where Citizens' branch network is concentrated outside New England.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$8.73B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$2.13B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

-

Total Equity

$26.32B

Total Liabilities

$200.03B

Current Ratio

-

Interest Coverage

0.44

Debt/EBITDA

-

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

BankOvervalued

Fair Value

$49.73

Current Price

$62.05

Margin of Safety

-24.8%

Fair Value Range

$32.32 - $67.13

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$80.65
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):$48.62
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):Not applicable to this type of company
Justified P/B:$38.59
Dividend discount (Gordon):$32.29
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:Not applicable to this type of company
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (19B / 4H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+3.72%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

13.86

ROE

7.0%

P/B Ratio

1.03

P/FCF

-

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

-

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-

WACC

12.7%

ROIC − WACC

-

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (14)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 9.76%
  • Price CAGR 7.06%
  • P/B Ratio 1.03
  • Operating Margin 31.1%
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 8.1%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 7.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 83% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.16
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.18
  • Share Dilution -4.8%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (5)

  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg 2.2%

Unavailable (9)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Net Margin Trend (invalid data)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.18

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-4.8%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Bruce Winfield Van SaunCEO & Chairman of the Board68
Mr. Brendan CoughlinPresident and Head of Consumer, Private Banking & Wealth45
Mr. Aunoy BanerjeeExecutive VP & CFO47
Mr. Chris EmersonHead of Investor Relations-
Mr. Theodore C. SwimmerExecutive VP & Head of Commercial Banking56
Mr. Christopher J. SchnirelExecutive VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller53
Mr. Michael RuttledgeExecutive VP, Chief Information Officer and Head of Enterprise Security & Technology61
Ms. Michelle MoosallyExecutive Vice President, General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer49
Ms. Susan A. LaMonicaExecutive VP & Chief HR Officer63
Mr. Thomas M. MetzgerHead of Citizens Private Wealth Manager73

Audit Risk

3

Board Risk

5

Compensation Risk

6

Shareholder Rights Risk

7

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-12

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-03

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-07-31

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for CFG, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 22d agoNEUTRAL
    Citizens CEO Says Consumers Are Cautious, But Spending

    Citizens Financial Group CEO Bruce Van Saun indicated that while consumers are exhibiting caution, they are still spending, suggesting resilience in the US economy. He noted that customers have adapted to higher energy costs and does not anticipate imminent interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. This perspective, shared on Bloomberg, suggests a stable economic environment for financial institutions, though the cautious consumer sentiment warrants monitoring for potential shifts in spending patterns.

  • 6/3/2026POSITIVE
    Citizen CEO on How AI Is Rebuilding Banking

    Citizens Financial Group CEO Bruce Van Saun highlighted the bank's successful integration of First Republic's private banking business, now valued at over $16 billion in deposits. He also emphasized the transformative role of AI in modernizing banking operations. Van Saun expressed optimism about the resilience of consumers, businesses, and private credit markets, suggesting investor sentiment may be overly pessimistic. This strategic expansion and technological adoption position Citizens for continued growth and stability.

  • 4/16/2026NEUTRAL
    Citizens Financial Group Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

    Citizens Financial Group is scheduled to host its Q1 2026 Earnings Call on April 16, 2026, at 2:25 PM ET. While the transcript itself is not yet available, the announcement of the call date provides investors with a clear timeline for upcoming financial disclosures. This event is crucial for understanding the bank's performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook. Investors will be looking for key metrics such as net interest margin, loan growth, deposit trends, and asset quality to assess the company's financial health and profitability in the first quarter of 2026.

  • 4/15/2026POSITIVE
    Citizens Financial Likely To Report Higher Q1 Earnings; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call

    Citizens Financial Group (CFG) is poised for a strong Q1 earnings report on April 16, with analysts projecting earnings per share of $1.08 and revenue of $2.15 billion. This forecast suggests a positive trajectory for the financial institution. The stock closed at $64.87 on Tuesday, indicating current market valuation. While recent analyst ratings from early 2022 show a neutral stance from Credit Suisse and UBS, Citigroup upgraded its rating to Buy, suggesting potential upside. Investors will be watching the earnings call for confirmation of these optimistic expectations and forward guidance.

  • 3/31/2026NEUTRAL
    Citizens CEO: Private Credit Industry Growth Will Slow

    Bruce Van Saun, CEO of Citizens Financial Group, indicated that the private credit industry is likely to experience a slowdown in its growth rate. Speaking on Bloomberg's "Open Interest," Van Saun also touched upon the challenges regional banks face in a tested credit environment and highlighted the adoption of AI and cloud technologies to enhance operational efficiency. While the commentary on private credit suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, the focus on technological adoption by regional banks presents a mixed outlook for the financial sector.

via Markets Gazette