The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)
UndervaluedFundamental
57
Price
$39.76
Market Cap
$14.05B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Carlyle raises money from pension funds, insurers and wealthy individuals and puts it to work through investment funds it manages, buying companies, lending to them, or backing other funds. It earns fees for managing that money and, when investments are eventually sold at a profit, a cut of the gains. Its own balance sheet stays relatively small; the assets that matter belong to the funds, and Carlyle is paid for running them well.
How it makes money
Most revenue comes from management fees charged as a percentage of the capital investors have committed, which keeps coming in whether markets are up or down. On top of that, Carlyle earns performance fees only when a fund's investments are sold above an agreed return threshold, so this part of revenue swings with deal activity and market conditions. Growth depends on raising ever-larger new funds and on the pace at which existing investments can be profitably sold.
Revenue by segment
Buyout, growth, real estate and infrastructure funds that take ownership stakes in companies and assets to improve and later sell them.
Funds that lend directly to companies or buy debt, spanning direct lending, opportunistic credit, asset-backed and insurance-related strategies.
Buys stakes in existing private equity funds from other investors and co-invests alongside them, rather than running buyout deals directly.
Competitive moat
Patents and licences · NarrowCarlyle's edge is its track record and relationships with large institutional investors, built up over decades of fundraising — a reputation asset that is real but not exclusive. Rival firms with similarly long records compete for the same pool of capital, and an investor unhappy with returns can simply not commit to the next fund.
What drives demand
CyclicalBoth fundraising and the pace of profitable exits track the broader investment cycle: institutions commit more capital and deals get sold at better prices when markets are strong, and both slow when markets turn. Management fees on already-committed capital cushion the swings, but performance-related revenue moves with the cycle.
Key risks
- Dependence on senior professionals — The company states that its business depends on senior investment professionals, including its chief executive, and that losing them or a loss of investor confidence in them could materially hurt results.
- Revenue variability — Revenue, earnings and cash flow can vary materially from period to period because performance fees depend on when and at what price investments are sold, making steady quarterly growth difficult to achieve.
- Fundraising is never guaranteed — Future fee revenue depends on raising successor funds of comparable or larger size. Investors are free to reduce commitments or move to competitors if past returns or terms disappoint them.
- Priority on investor interests over near-term results — The company may reduce fees, restrain the growth of assets under management, or otherwise act in the interest of fund investors even when that works against near-term shareholder results.
The case for
Buyers argue that growing fee-related earnings and record fee-earning assets under management show the business scaling profitably, that diversification across private equity, credit and fund-of-funds smooths the cycle, and that a decades-long fundraising record gives Carlyle an edge in attracting the next round of institutional capital.
The case against
Sellers fear that performance-related revenue can swing sharply when deal markets slow, that the business leans heavily on a small group of senior professionals whose departure would be hard to replace, and that fundraising success is never assured from one fund cycle to the next.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
The largest diversified alternative asset manager, raising capital from the same pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and insurers Carlyle courts and bidding for the same buyout, credit and real estate deals worldwide.
A global buyout house of the same generation and scale as Carlyle, competing fund by fund for large leveraged buyouts, infrastructure and private credit mandates in North America, Europe and Asia.
Competes for the same institutional allocations in private equity and, above all, in private credit, where its insurance-backed platform goes after the direct-lending and asset-financing business Carlyle is also chasing.
A US buyout firm of comparable size that bids against Carlyle for control stakes in healthcare, technology and consumer companies and markets similar private equity, credit and real estate funds to the same investors.
Its direct-lending and credit franchise competes head-on with Carlyle Global Credit for the same middle-market borrowers and the same yield-seeking institutional money, alongside overlapping private equity and real assets funds.
The dominant European buyout and infrastructure manager, and Carlyle's most frequent rival in auctions for large continental European companies and in fundraising from European institutions.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$3.61B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$364M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$-3.37B
Total Equity
$7.06B
Total Liabilities
$22.06B
Current Ratio
0.56
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$73.04
Current Price
$39.76
Margin of Safety
+45.6%
Fair Value Range
$47.48 - $98.61
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
41.31
ROE
11.5%
P/B Ratio
1.96
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
12.3%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (10)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 13.72%
- Price CAGR 10.10%
- P/B Ratio 1.96
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- Revenue Growth 5Y 10.3%
- Analyst Consensus 58% Buy
- Share Dilution 0.7%
Failed (9)
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 6.6%
- Earnings Surprise avg -1.1%
- PEG Ratio 2.20
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) -10.99
- Net Margin Trend 10.1% vs 20.2%
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Unavailable (9)
- ROIC NaN%
- Gross Margin NaN%
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
Low quality: investigate accounting
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Harvey Mitchell Schwartz | Partner, CEO & Director | 60 |
| Ms. Lindsay P. Lobue | Chief Operating Officer | 50 |
| Ms. Afsaneh Mashayekhi Beschloss | Director & Member of the Board of Directors | - |
| Mr. James H. Hance Jr., CPA | Operating Executive, Director & Member of Board of Director | 81 |
| Mr. William J. Shaw | Member of Board of Directors & Director | 79 |
| Ms. Lawton Wehle Fitt | Member of Board of Directors & Director | 72 |
| Mr. Anthony Welters J.D. | Member of Board of Directors & Director | 70 |
| Mr. Derica W. Rice | Director & Member of Board of Directors | 60 |
| Ms. Linda Hefner Filler | Member of Board of Directors & Director | 65 |
| Mr. David Mark Rubenstein J.D. | Co-Founder & Co-Chairman of the Board | 76 |
Audit Risk
2
Board Risk
5
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
7
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-27
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-10
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-08-05
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CG, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 16d agoNEGATIVECarlyle’s Thomas: AI Slowdown ‘More Likely Than Not’
Jason Thomas, Carlyle's Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy, expressed concerns about the current AI investment boom, suggesting a slowdown is 'more likely than not.' This outlook, shared from the sidelines of Carlyle's Global Investor Conference, implies potential headwinds for companies heavily invested in or reliant on AI technologies. Thomas also noted significant pressure on the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis-point rate hike. Investors monitoring the technology sector and private equity valuations may need to reassess growth expectations for AI-centric businesses.
- 8/5/2026NEUTRALCarlyle Says PE Exit Market Open for Sellers of ‘Good Companies’
Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) is observing an improvement in the private equity exit market, according to CFO Justin Plouffe. The firm is noting an accelerated pace for divesting investments across various sectors, indicating a more favorable environment for sellers of well-performing companies. This suggests that capital markets are becoming more receptive to transactions, potentially leading to increased deal activity and liquidity for private equity firms and their portfolio companies. Investors in Carlyle may see this as a positive sign for future returns, though the overall market impact remains to be seen.
- 7/21/2026NEUTRALCarlyle in Talks to Hand ESG Consulting Firm Over to Bridgepoint
Carlyle Group Inc. is reportedly in negotiations to transfer its sustainability consultancy, Anthesis Group, to its private credit provider, Bridgepoint Group Plc. This potential transaction suggests a restructuring or deleveraging effort by Carlyle, aiming to offload a non-core asset or manage its debt obligations. For investors, the outcome could impact Carlyle's balance sheet and its strategic focus. The news does not provide immediate financial figures or performance indicators for either company, thus presenting a neutral outlook pending further details on the deal's terms and implications.
- 7/3/2026NEUTRALCarlyle Hires Banks for $400 Million India IPO of RCM Business
Carlyle Group Inc. is reportedly preparing for a potential initial public offering (IPO) of its India-based healthcare revenue cycle management business, aiming for a valuation of approximately $400 million. The private equity giant has enlisted JM Financial Ltd. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to manage the process. While the IPO itself is a positive step for the business unit, the news primarily concerns the strategic divestment plans of Carlyle and the preparation for a new listing, rather than an immediate impact on Carlyle's current stock performance. Investors will await further details on the IPO's progress and valuation.
- 6/22/2026NEUTRALCarlyle Rethinks Portfolio Risk to Give Weather Insurance a Bigger Role
Carlyle Group Inc. is implementing a new framework to assess portfolio risk, explicitly incorporating the financial implications of severe weather events. This strategic shift aims to better reflect the impact of climate-related shocks on asset valuations. While the specific details of the framework and its immediate impact on Carlyle's portfolio are yet to be fully disclosed, the move signals a proactive approach to managing climate-related financial risks. Investors will be watching for how this integration affects performance metrics and future investment strategies.
- 6/12/2026NEUTRALDeal Dispatch: Carlyle Buys Chung Ho Group, Second Nature Brands Acquires Tillamook Country Smoker, GoHealth Bankruptcy
Carlyle Group Inc. has announced its acquisition of Chung Ho Group, a significant move in the private equity landscape. This deal, alongside other strategic transactions like Second Nature Brands acquiring Tillamook Country Smoker and Arcline acquiring Continental, highlights active deal-making. SGMO is exploring strategic alternatives, and ZOOZ is considering complementing its Bitcoin strategy, indicating varied corporate strategies. Mill Point's acquisition of Total Safety further underscores the dynamic M&A environment. Investors should monitor Carlyle's integration strategy for Chung Ho Group and the broader implications of these diverse corporate actions.
- 6/10/2026NEUTRALCarlyle Seeks Banks for India IPO of Healthcare RCM Provider
Carlyle Group Inc. is reportedly preparing for a potential initial public offering (IPO) in India for its recently acquired healthcare billing service business. The private equity giant has invited investment banks to pitch for advisory roles. This move signals Carlyle's strategy to monetize its investments through public markets, potentially unlocking significant value for its stakeholders. The specific details of the healthcare business and its valuation are yet to be disclosed, but the intention to list in India highlights the growing attractiveness of the Indian market for global investors and healthcare services.
- 5/7/2026NEGATIVECarlyle Hit By Massive Investment Losses, Revenue Plunges Nearly 74%
Carlyle Group Inc. reported a significant revenue decline of nearly 74%, falling from $973 million in Q1 2025 to $254 million in Q1 2026. This sharp drop in revenue indicates substantial investment losses and a considerable downturn in the company's financial performance. Investors will be closely monitoring the company's strategies to address these losses and stabilize its revenue streams. The magnitude of the decline suggests potential headwinds for the private equity firm and its portfolio.
via Markets Gazette