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Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA)

Undervalued
Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsChina

Fundamental

81

Price

$11.70

Market Cap

$2.23B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Chagee Holdings is a Chinese chain of teahouses selling freshly-made premium tea drinks, best known for its tea lattes made with tea leaves rather than powders. Founded in 2017 and listed on Nasdaq in 2025 through a Cayman Islands holding company over PRC operating subsidiaries, it had 7,453 teahouses at 31 December 2025, of which 6,838 were run by franchise partners and 615 were company-owned. The network covers 32 of China's 34 province-level divisions and 345 shops outside China, in markets such as Singapore, Malaysia, the United States and South Korea. Growth in 2025 came almost entirely from opening shops — 1,013 net additions — while the company itself reports falling average monthly GMV per teahouse in China and a deceleration or decline in same-store GMV growth.

How it makes money

Most of the money comes from franchise partners, not from the person buying the drink. Franchise partners pay fixed fees — franchise fees, store opening service fees, certain third-party platform subscription and promotion fees — plus variable fees calculated as a percentage of the shop's GMV: trademark licensing, promotional services, supply chain management, technology services and operations management. On top of that they are required to buy their tea leaves, ingredients, packaging and equipment from Chagee, and those goods sales are the largest single piece of the franchise revenue line. The remainder comes from company-owned teahouses, where Chagee books the full retail price of every cup sold — a much smaller share of revenue but one that grew 92.7% in 2025 as the company took direct control of its overseas openings. Note the gap between scale and reported revenue: 2025 network GMV was RMB31.58 billion while net revenues were RMB12.91 billion, because franchised shops' till receipts never pass through Chagee's income statement.

Revenue by segment

Franchised teahouses88.5%

Goods and equipment sold to the 6,838 franchise partners, plus their fixed franchise fees and the GMV-based royalties and service fees. The customer here is the franchise partner, not the drinker. Revenue from this line fell from RMB11.63 billion in 2024 to RMB11.42 billion in 2025 even as the shop count grew.

Company-owned teahouses11.5%

The 615 shops Chagee runs itself, where the full retail price paid by the consumer is booked as revenue. This line nearly doubled in 2025, from RMB773.2 million to RMB1.49 billion, driven by direct operation of overseas markets.

Competitive moat

Brand · Narrow

Chagee's advantage is brand recognition and a dense store network that makes the brand hard to avoid in Chinese cities, which in turn makes its franchise slots worth paying for. What it does not have is protection of the product itself: the company's own risk factors state that competitors can copy its unpatented recipes, that it has limited bargaining power with suppliers, and that delivery-platform price wars can force it into margin-reducing discounts. Consumers face no cost at all in buying the next cup elsewhere. A falling average GMV per shop while the network keeps growing is the kind of evidence that argues against a wide moat.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

A tea drink is a small, frequent, affordable treat, which makes demand steadier than for big-ticket discretionary goods: people rarely cancel a RMB18 cup the way they postpone a car. But it is still discretionary and habit-driven, sensitive to footfall in malls and office districts, to weather and season, and to how aggressively rivals discount on delivery platforms. The bigger swing factor for reported revenue is not the consumer cycle at all but the franchise cycle: revenue depends on how many partners are opening shops and buying inventory, so a slowdown in openings hits the income statement faster than a slowdown in drinking does. That is visible in 2025, when net revenues grew only 4.0% and franchised revenue actually fell, despite 1,013 net new shops.

Key risks

  • Growth may not be manageable, or may simply slow — The company warns that if it cannot manage its growth, or if its growth rate declines, the business may be materially harmed. It explicitly points to a decrease in average monthly GMV per teahouse in China in recent quarters and a deceleration or decline in quarterly same-store GMV growth, and notes its limited operating history is a poor guide to future performance.
  • Limited control over franchise partners — Results and growth are tied to franchise partners the company only partly oversees: 6,838 of 7,453 shops are theirs. Partners may fail to keep operational quality, refuse required upgrades, break regulations, pursue strategies that diverge from the company's, fall into disputes over rights and obligations, or fail to raise financing and go bankrupt — and their misconduct is attributed to the Chagee brand.
  • Food safety and contamination — The filing lists food- or beverage-borne illness, tampering, adulteration, contamination or mislabeling — whether or not the claim turns out to be accurate — as a risk to the business, alongside shifting public opinion about the health effects of its ingredients. Named causes include staff hygiene failures, improper storage and handling of ingredients, refrigeration malfunctions and gaps in third-party suppliers' quality control.
  • Competition and price wars on delivery platforms — The company describes the freshly-made tea drinks market in China and abroad as competitive and rapidly evolving, with well-funded new entrants and rivals able to copy its unpatented recipes. It warns that price wars and intense promotional competition on delivery platforms may force it to discount, and that it has limited bargaining power with suppliers to offset this.
  • Raw material cost, availability and supplier dependence — Tea leaves and condiments have short shelf lives and need frequent, timely supply. The company says supplier price increases are hard to pass on, contracts may be renegotiated on worse terms at expiry, suppliers are not contractually barred from serving competitors, and it depends on third-party warehousing and logistics whose delays can cause spoilage.
  • PRC government influence and evolving regulation — The filing states that the PRC government exerts substantial influence over how the company conducts its business, and that policies, laws and their interpretation and enforcement may change at any time, including on cybersecurity, data privacy, antitrust, foreign investment and oversight of overseas listings. It also flags uncertainty over how the PRC Foreign Investment Law may affect its corporate structure.
  • Missing licences and permits — The company discloses that some company-owned teahouses have not completed fire safety filings and inspections, with fines of up to RMB300,000 per teahouse possible, and that the way it distributes prepaid gift cards may trigger further regulatory filing requirements. Franchise partners' own licensing gaps are outside its direct control.
  • Overseas expansion into unfamiliar markets — The company says its experience abroad has been limited and carries added risk: lower brand awareness, unfamiliar regulatory and competitive environments, longer payback, higher marketing cost, tariffs and trade restrictions, currency swings, difficulty recruiting talent and limited availability of retail space.
  • Public scrutiny and reputational attack — With a very large consumer base, the company expects to be an increasing target for complaints to regulators, negative media coverage and malicious allegations, any of which could damage the brand. It notes its limited control over franchisee behaviour compounds this, and that international operations add cross-border reputational exposure.

Customer concentration

Revenue is spread across thousands of independent franchise partners and, in company-owned shops, across millions of individual drinkers; the annual report discloses that no single customer accounted for more than 10% of net revenues. The real concentration is not in any one name but in the model itself — roughly nine tenths of revenue depends on franchise partners continuing to open shops and buy supplies, and on the health of one national market, China, which still holds all but 345 of the 7,453 teahouses.

The case for

Buyers argue that Chagee has built, in under a decade, a brand that stands for real tea in a market of powdered imitations, and a network of 7,453 shops that keeps expanding — 1,013 net additions in 2025 — mostly with other people's capital, since franchise partners pay to build and run the stores. They point to network GMV of RMB31.58 billion in 2025, well above reported revenue, as the measure of consumer demand the income statement understates, and to the asset-light structure of fees, royalties and supply sales as a way to grow store count without matching capital intensity. They see the overseas push as the next leg: revenue from company-owned shops nearly doubled in 2025 to RMB1.49 billion as the company opened directly in Singapore, Malaysia, the United States and South Korea, markets where the tea-drink category is young and Chagee is not fighting the same domestic price war.

The case against

Sellers fear that the store count is hiding a per-store problem. The company itself discloses a decrease in average monthly GMV per teahouse in China and a deceleration or decline in same-store GMV growth; group net revenues grew only 4.0% in 2025, and revenue from franchised teahouses actually fell, from RMB11.63 billion to RMB11.42 billion, even with a thousand more shops open. Read that way, new openings are cannibalising existing ones, and the franchise flywheel stops the moment partners conclude a new shop no longer pays back. They also point to what the filing admits: recipes are not patentable, suppliers are free to serve competitors, bargaining power over them is limited, and delivery-platform price wars can force discounting, with sales and marketing already up to 10.6% of revenues in 2025. Layered on top are the risks specific to a Chinese company listed in the US — substantial government influence over how the business is run, restrictions on moving cash out of PRC subsidiaries, and rules that can change without warning.

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

HEYTEA (喜茶, Shenzhen Meixixi Catering Management Co., Ltd.)Not tracked

HEYTEA sells freshly made premium tea drinks at the same RMB 15-25 price point as Chagee, to the same young urban Chinese customer, and is expanding into the same overseas cities.

Nayuki Holdings Limited (奈雪的茶)2150.HK

Nayuki runs teahouses in the premium freshly made tea segment, competing with Chagee for the same sit-and-stay customer in first- and second-tier Chinese cities.

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. (茶百道, ChaPanda)2555.HK

ChaPanda operates a franchised network of about 8,900 milk tea stores across China, competing store by store with Chagee for the same daily drink purchase.

Guming Holdings Limited (古茗, Good Me)1364.HK

Guming is the second-largest freshly made tea chain in China by store count and GMV, taking the same fruit and milk tea orders as Chagee, mostly in lower-tier cities.

Mixue Group (蜜雪冰城)2097.HK

Mixue is the world's largest freshly made drinks chain, with roughly 60,000 stores selling tea and ice cream at budget prices that pull the same customers away from Chagee's counter.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$13.14B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$1.34B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$699M

Total Equity

$804M

Total Liabilities

$1.59B

Current Ratio

3.37

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

0.95

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$45.21

Current Price

$11.70

Margin of Safety

+74.1%

Fair Value Range

$29.39 - $61.04

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$15.04
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$142.70
Earnings multiple (P/E):$8.78
Graham growth formula:$16.61
Earnings power value (EPV):$76.25
Justified P/B:$81.01
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$116.71
Analyst Consensus:Buy (10B / 4H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+6.62%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

11.47

ROE

16.2%

P/B Ratio

1.83

P/FCF

2.10

Gross Margin

41.2%

ROIC

66.6%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC outlier

ROIC

66.6%

WACC

4.6%

ROIC − WACC

+62.0 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (12)

  • ROIC 66.6%
  • Gross Margin 41.2%
  • P/FCF 2.10
  • P/B Ratio 1.83
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 16.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 71% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.05

Failed (4)

  • Price CAGR -3.01%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Earnings Surprise avg -10.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

Unavailable (11)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Revenue Growth 5Y (Finnhub)
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)
  • Net Margin Trend (invalid data)

Piotroski F-Score

2/9

Serious financial concerns

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.05

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Junjie ZhangCEO & Chairman of the Board30
Mr. Hongfei HuangChief Financial Officer51
Mr. Dengfeng YinCOO & Director49
Mr. Chi XuVice President of Branding & Marketing35
Mr. Mian LuVP & Director30
Mr. Wei Jen HuVice President of Product Development46

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for CHA, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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