Carvana Co (CVNA)
Fair ValueFundamental
75
Price
$62.54
Market Cap
$67.03B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Carvana Co. is a US e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. A customer browses Carvana's inventory online, finances the car, arranges a trade-in and completes the purchase on the website or app, then has the vehicle delivered to their door or picks it up from one of Carvana's vending machines. The company is vertically integrated: it sources cars from customer trade-ins, auctions and dealers, inspects and reconditions them in its own facilities, photographs them for the 360-degree online display, and moves them on its own logistics fleet. The 2024 acquisition of the ADESA US physical auction network added wholesale auction sites that double as reconditioning and last-mile hubs. Carvana sold 596,641 retail vehicles in 2025, up 43% year over year, on $20.3 billion of revenue, and reports as a single operating and reportable segment.
How it makes money
Most of the revenue is simply the price of the used cars sold to consumers: Carvana buys a vehicle, reconditions it and books the full retail price as revenue, so the top line is large and the margin per car is thin. A second stream is wholesale — cars that do not meet retail standards, plus vehicles and auction fees from the ADESA marketplace, sold to dealers. The third and most profitable stream is 'other': Carvana originates the customer's auto loan and then sells those finance receivables to banks and securitisation investors, booking the gain, and earns commissions on vehicle service contracts, GAP waiver coverage and auto insurance sold alongside the car. That third bucket is only about 8% of revenue but carries almost no vehicle cost, so it contributes a disproportionate share of gross profit.
Revenue by segment
Used cars sold directly to consumers through the website and app, delivered to the customer or picked up at a vending machine. $14.5 billion in 2025 on 596,641 retail units.
Vehicles that do not meet Carvana's retail standards, sold to dealers and other wholesale buyers, plus vehicle sales and auction fees from the ADESA physical auction marketplace. $4.1 billion in 2025.
Mainly gains on the sale of the auto loans Carvana originates for its own buyers, plus commissions on complementary products such as vehicle service contracts, GAP waiver coverage and auto insurance. $1.7 billion in 2025.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowCarvana's advantage is operational scale that a smaller online rival would struggle to rebuild: inspection and reconditioning centres, a proprietary transport fleet, a national inventory visible to every buyer, and — since the ADESA deal — auction sites that shorten the distance between a trade-in and the customer who buys it. Selling more cars through the same fixed network lowers the cost per unit, which is how gross profit per vehicle has widened. But used cars are a commodity, the customer buys once every several years so habit counts for little, and CarMax, franchise dealer groups and other online sellers offer the same cars. The advantage rests on cost per unit rather than on anything that stops a customer from shopping elsewhere.
What drives demand
CyclicalA used car is a large discretionary purchase that most households can postpone for a year or two, so volumes follow employment, consumer confidence and above all the cost and availability of credit: a big share of Carvana's buyers finance the vehicle, and higher rates raise the monthly payment that decides the sale. Two more cycles sit on top. Used-car prices themselves swing — the 2021-2022 spike and the subsequent fall moved the value of Carvana's inventory and the industry's economics. And the supply of good used cars lags new-car sales by roughly three years, so the weak production years of the pandemic thin out the pool of off-lease vehicles later. Within the year, the business is seasonal: the company lists seasonal fluctuations among its risk factors, with the tax-refund window in the first part of the year the strongest period for used-car retail.
Key risks
- Dependence on selling the loans it originates — The company states it depends on selling its automotive finance receivables, and on access to capital markets on acceptable terms, to fund the business. If securitisation demand weakens or pricing worsens, a stream that carries a large share of gross profit shrinks and cash conversion slows.
- Credit losses and prepayments on the receivables — Item 1A flags credit losses, prepayment behaviour, enforceability of the contracts and risk-retention requirements. Carvana keeps a residual exposure to the loans it sells, so deteriorating borrower performance hits it even after the sale.
- Substantial indebtedness — The filing devotes a section to substantial debt levels and to whether cash flow will suffice to service them, alongside restrictive covenants that limit how the company can raise further capital.
- Used-vehicle prices and inventory turn — Carvana lists volatility in vehicle pricing and its ability to acquire inventory and sell it quickly enough. Cars bought at one price and sold weeks later at a lower one compress a margin that is thin to begin with.
- Consumer demand and the wider automotive ecosystem — The first risk factor covers the automotive ecosystem as a whole: consumer demand, supply-chain disruption and macroeconomic conditions such as inflation and recession, all of which move how many used cars people buy and on what credit terms.
- Heavily regulated activities — Selling cars, originating consumer loans and distributing insurance-like products each carry their own federal, state and local rules. The company warns that changes in those rules, or alleged non-compliance, could materially affect results.
- Controlled company and related-party ties — Carvana discloses that the Garcia parties hold controlling influence, that it relies on controlled-company exemptions, and that its relationship with DriveTime and other affiliated entities can create conflicts between the interests of Class A stockholders and those of the controlling holders.
Customer concentration
The filing discloses no customer concentration, and none would be expected: retail revenue comes from hundreds of thousands of individual car buyers, 596,641 of them in 2025, and wholesale revenue is spread across dealers bidding at ADESA auctions. The concentration that matters for Carvana sits on the other side of the balance sheet — the banks and securitisation investors that buy its loan originations, a much smaller and more concentrated group than its car buyers.
The case for
Buyers argue that Carvana came through its 2022-2023 debt crisis with the model intact and is now compounding: 596,641 retail units in 2025, up 43%, $20.3 billion of revenue up 49%, $1.9 billion of net income and $2.2 billion of adjusted EBITDA, after years of losses. They see a fixed network — reconditioning centres, the transport fleet, the ADESA sites — that is still far from full, so each additional car spreads the same overhead and widens profit per unit without much new capital. They point out that Carvana still sells a low-single-digit share of a fragmented US used-car market of tens of millions of transactions a year, and that the financing and product attachment revenue, which needs no extra vehicle cost, grows with every incremental sale.
The case against
Sellers fear that the profits depend on two things that can turn at once. A large slice of gross profit comes from originating loans and selling them on; if credit markets tighten, if securitisation buyers demand wider spreads, or if borrowers — many of them subprime — fall behind, that slice thins just as demand for cars weakens, because the same interest rates drive both. They also note the substantial debt the company itself flags, which leaves little room if a downturn hits volumes and used-car prices together, as happened in 2022. Beyond that they question how durable the advantage is: used cars are interchangeable, a buyer returns once every several years, and CarMax, dealer groups and other online sellers can match the offer, so today's margin per unit may reflect a favourable moment in the cycle rather than a permanent gain. The controlled-company structure and the DriveTime relationship, both disclosed as risks, leave minority holders with limited say over how those tensions are resolved.
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
The largest used-vehicle retailer in the United States, named by Carvana in its own 10-K, selling the same 0-10 year old used cars to the same retail buyers through a no-haggle online and in-store channel, with its own financing arm.
Its Driveway platform offers the same end-to-end online used-car purchase with home delivery, trade-in and captive financing that Carvana built its business on, backed by a nationwide dealership network.
Sells used vehicles at one fixed price through 26 used-only AutoNation USA stores plus an omnichannel site with home delivery, and buys cars from consumers with its "We'll Buy Your Car" programme, competing with Carvana on both sides of the transaction.
Its EchoPark chain is a used-only, low-price retail format aimed at the same one-to-four-year-old vehicle segment as Carvana, now paired with an e-commerce app and a national advertising push.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$25.06B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$1.57B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$889M
Total Equity
$3.44B
Total Liabilities
$9.00B
Current Ratio
3.93
Interest Coverage
5.29
Debt/EBITDA
2.34
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$73.35
Current Price
$62.54
Margin of Safety
+14.7%
Fair Value Range
$56.43 - $90.28
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
7.16
ROE
40.9%
P/B Ratio
-
P/FCF
0.00
Gross Margin
19.4%
ROIC
14.1%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
14.1%
WACC
17.1%
ROIC − WACC
-3.0 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (17)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 37.95%
- ROIC 14.1%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 8.9%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 46.6%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 29.5%
- Analyst Consensus 67% Buy
- Net Margin Trend 6.3% vs 3.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (5)
- Gross Margin 19.4%
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- Earnings Surprise avg -3.0%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.71
- Share Dilution 26.1%
Unavailable (5)
- P/FCF 0.00
- P/B Ratio NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Moderate: some gap between profits and cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Ernest C. Garcia III | Co-Founder, President, CEO & Chairman | 42 |
| Mr. Benjamin Huston J.D. | Co-Founder & COO | 42 |
| Mr. Mark Jenkins Ph.D. | Chief Financial Officer | 46 |
| Mr. Daniel Gill | Chief Product Officer | 42 |
| Mr. Thomas Taira | President of Special Projects | 54 |
| Mr. Ryan S. Keeton | Co-Founder & Chief Brand Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Stephen R. Palmer | Vice President of Accounting & Finance | 47 |
| Mr. Michael McKeever | Head of Capital Markets, Investor Relations and Treasury | - |
| Mr. Paul Breaux J.D. | VP, General Counsel, Secretary & Chief Compliance Officer | 41 |
| Ms. Christina Keiser | Executive Vice President of Strategy | - |
Audit Risk
9
Board Risk
10
Compensation Risk
9
Shareholder Rights Risk
10
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-18
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-29
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-08-14
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CVNA, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 8/19/2026POSITIVECarvana Rebounds as Report on Walter’s Pledged Stake Allays Fear
Carvana Co. shares experienced a rebound following news that a significant stake held by billionaire Mark Walter is pledged. This means Walter cannot immediately liquidate his position amidst a federal probe into his investment firm. The news alleviates immediate selling pressure concerns that had contributed to a two-day selloff. Investors view this development positively, as it reduces the immediate risk of a large block of shares hitting the market, potentially stabilizing the stock price and allowing for a recovery from recent lows.
- 8/18/2026NEGATIVEWalter Probe Weighs on Carvana as Traders Suspect Share Sale
Carvana Co. shares experienced a notable decline on Tuesday, fueled by speculation that a significant investor, Mark Walter, might reduce his holdings. This concern stems from a federal investigation into Walter's broader investment activities. The potential for a large sell-off by a major stakeholder introduces uncertainty and could signal a lack of confidence, impacting investor sentiment and the stock's valuation. Traders are closely monitoring any further developments regarding Walter's stake and the federal probe.
- 5/19/2026NEUTRALWhat's Going On With Carvana Stock Tuesday?
Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) experienced downward pressure on Tuesday, attributed to broader market volatility rather than company-specific news. While the stock's movement reflects general market sentiment, it's crucial for investors to distinguish between systemic risk and fundamental performance. The current trading environment suggests caution, as broad market fluctuations can obscure underlying company value. Further analysis will be needed to determine if this pressure is temporary or indicative of a more significant trend for Carvana.
- 5/8/2026POSITIVEWhy Is Carvana Stock Surging On Friday?
Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) experienced a significant price adjustment on Friday due to an 80% drop following a 5-for-1 stock split. Despite the apparent decline, this move is designed to make the stock more accessible to retail traders by lowering the per-share price, not to reflect a loss in company value. For investors, this split can potentially increase liquidity and attract a broader investor base, which may lead to increased demand and a positive sentiment towards the stock.
- 4/20/2026POSITIVEHow Carvana survived a 99% stock plunge: ‘We’re very comfortable being the underdog’
Carvana Inc. has demonstrated a remarkable recovery, staging a significant comeback since its near-collapse in 2022. Despite a prior 99% stock price plunge, the company has navigated its challenges and is now positioned as a resilient underdog in the automotive retail sector. This narrative of survival and resurgence suggests a potential turnaround, offering a compelling case for investors who favor companies with strong recovery potential and a demonstrated ability to overcome adversity. The company's strategic positioning as an underdog may also foster a culture of innovation and cost-efficiency.
- 3/24/2026POSITIVECarvana Set To Become Top US Independent Used-Car Dealer: Analyst
BofA Securities has reiterated its 'Buy' rating on Carvana Co. (CVNA), setting a price target of $400. This target suggests a potential upside of 33.5% from current levels, driven by the company's strengthening operational momentum. The analyst firm's conviction indicates a positive outlook for Carvana, positioning it to potentially become the leading independent used-car dealer in the US. Investors should monitor Carvana's execution on its operational strategies as this could translate into significant shareholder value.
- 3/23/2026POSITIVEWhy Carvana Stock Is Up Monday Afternoon
Carvana Co. shares experienced a notable increase on Monday, influenced by geopolitical developments. The announcement of President Trump pausing U.S. strikes on Iran led to a significant drop in oil prices, which in turn provided a bullish tailwind for the broader equity market. This positive sentiment carried over to Carvana, suggesting that a lower energy cost environment is perceived as beneficial for the company's operational and consumer spending outlook. Investors are likely interpreting this as a signal for improved consumer discretionary spending, a key driver for Carvana's used car sales business.
- 3/13/2026POSITIVEWhy Is Carvana Stock Gaining Today?
Carvana Inc. shares experienced a notable increase on Friday following the company's announcement of a 5-for-1 stock split. This strategic move, aimed at making the stock more accessible to a broader range of investors by lowering its per-share price, has been positively received. While a stock split does not alter the fundamental value of the company, it often signals management's confidence in future growth and can attract new retail investors, potentially boosting demand and share price in the short to medium term. Investors will be monitoring the company's subsequent performance and market reaction.
via Markets Gazette