Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST)
Fair ValueFundamental
43
Price
$80.35
Market Cap
$5.11B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Casella Waste Systems is a regional, vertically integrated solid waste company operating in eleven states across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic United States, with headquarters in Rutland, Vermont. It collects household, commercial and industrial waste and then handles it through its own network of transfer stations, recycling and organics plants and landfills, so that a large share of the waste it picks up ends up in facilities it owns. At the end of fiscal 2025 it operated eight Subtitle D municipal solid waste landfills plus one construction-and-demolition landfill, with roughly 48.5 million tons of permitted remaining capacity and a further 49.7 million tons the company considers permittable, against 3.7 million tons consumed during the year. Alongside the regional business it runs Resource Solutions, a national recycling, organics and industrial-services arm that serves large customers beyond its own collection footprint.
How it makes money
Money comes in mainly from recurring service contracts: residential, commercial and industrial customers pay periodic fees for waste collection, while third-party haulers and municipalities pay tipping fees per ton to use the company's transfer stations and landfills. Because the business is vertically integrated, a ton collected can generate revenue twice — once on the truck and once at the disposal site. Additional revenue comes from selling landfill gas as energy and renewable natural gas, from processing fees and commodity sales at recycling and organics plants, and from brokerage and resource-management contracts in the National Accounts business. To blunt the swing in recycled-material prices, most third-party processing contracts are structured around a processing fee, and a sustainability recycling adjustment fee charged to customers floats inversely to commodity prices.
Revenue by segment
Solid waste collection, transfer, recycling and disposal in Vermont, western New Hampshire and upstate New York — the company's oldest and largest footprint, serving residential, commercial, industrial and municipal customers.
The same integrated set of collection, transfer and disposal services in Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut, sold to households, businesses and municipalities.
Materials processing, industrial recycling and organics plants, plus the National Accounts business that manages waste and recycling programmes for large multi-site organisations, often outside Casella's own collection area.
The newest regional platform, built from 2023 onwards through acquisitions in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and West Virginia, offering the same collection and disposal services.
Competitive moat
Patents and licences · NarrowThe durable advantage is permission, not technology. Building a new landfill in the Northeast is close to impossible: permitting is long, subject to heavy regulatory scrutiny and public participation, and the company's own filing flags that difficulty as a risk. Casella's eight Subtitle D landfills and roughly 98.2 million tons of permitted-plus-permittable capacity therefore sit in a region where disposal space is genuinely scarce, and a competitor cannot simply spend money to replicate them. Vertical integration adds to this: because Casella controls collection routes and the disposal sites those routes feed, it captures margin twice on the same ton and can price disposal to third-party haulers who have nowhere else nearby to go. The limits are real, though — Casella is a regional operator competing with far larger national companies, municipalities that run their own systems, and alternatives such as diversion and recycling programmes that reduce the volume needing a landfill at all.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalMost of the volume is non-discretionary: households and businesses produce waste every week regardless of the economy, and collection is sold on multi-year contracts with recurring fees, which makes the base very stable. What moves with the cycle sits on top of that base — construction-and-demolition volumes follow building activity, industrial waste follows manufacturing output, and the price of recovered paper, metals and plastics follows global commodity markets. Price increases have also been a bigger driver than volume in recent years. Longer term, demand for landfill space is pulled in two directions: waste keeps being produced, but diversion and recycling programmes — which the company itself flags as a risk — reduce what needs to be buried.
Key risks
- Permitting and access to disposal capacity — The company discloses that obtaining and renewing the permits it needs for landfills and other facilities is a lengthy process exposed to regulatory scrutiny and public participation, and that failure to secure capacity would harm the business. This risk factor was substantially reworded in the most recent filing to stress exactly those points.
- Recycled-commodity price volatility — Part of the revenue of the recycling and organics operations depends on the market price of the materials recovered, which the company lists among its disclosed risks. Casella mitigates it by restructuring third-party processing contracts around processing fees and by charging a sustainability recycling adjustment fee that moves inversely to commodity prices, but the exposure is not eliminated.
- Environmental regulation, including PFAS — Compliance with environmental rules — with PFAS singled out in the disclosed risk factors — can raise operating and capital costs and expose the company to liability at its landfills and processing sites.
- Diversion programmes reduce landfill volumes — A risk factor added in the most recent filing warns that alternatives to landfilling and waste-diversion programmes may reduce disposal volumes and put pressure on disposal pricing — the part of the business where the company earns its highest-return margins.
- Competition and geographic concentration — The disclosed risks include competition in the waste industry and the fact that operations are concentrated in a single part of the country, so a regional economic downturn, a regulatory change or severe weather in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic affects almost the whole company at once.
- Fuel costs and labour organising — Fuel prices and union organising activity are both listed among the business risks: the collection fleet makes diesel a meaningful cost line, and labour agreements can raise costs or disrupt routes.
- Technology, cybersecurity and artificial intelligence — Three disclosed risks cover technology: upgrades to the technology infrastructure and e-commerce platforms that may not deliver the expected revenue growth, cybersecurity incidents that could disrupt operations, and — new in the latest filing — the accuracy, security and data-confidentiality problems that come with adopting artificial intelligence.
- Substantial indebtedness — The company discloses that its debt load constrains operational and financial flexibility. Net leverage stood at 2.34x at 31 December 2025, and the acquisition-led growth strategy keeps the balance sheet in constant use.
Customer concentration
The filing does not disclose a figure for the share of revenue taken by the largest customers. What it does describe is a customer base spread across residential households, commercial and industrial accounts and municipalities in eleven states, plus third-party haulers who pay to use the transfer stations and landfills. The one place where individual relationships are larger is Resource Solutions' National Accounts business, which serves large multi-site organisations, but no concentration percentage is given for it either.
The case for
Buyers argue that Casella owns something that cannot be rebuilt: permitted landfill capacity in a densely populated region where new permits are extremely hard to obtain, with roughly 98.2 million tons of permitted and permittable capacity against 3.7 million tons consumed in fiscal 2025. On top of that scarcity, they say, sits a vertically integrated network that earns on the same ton twice and a customer base that pays recurring fees for a service nobody can stop buying. They point to consistent pricing power in the solid waste business and to a long record of buying small local haulers and folding them into existing routes — nine acquisitions in fiscal 2025, and a tenth in West Virginia closing on 1 January 2026 — as a way to keep compounding revenue in a fragmented industry. They also note that the recycling contracts have been restructured around processing fees, so the part of the business most exposed to commodity swings is less exposed than it once was.
The case against
Sellers fear that the growth is bought rather than generated: the company has expanded quickly through acquisitions, most visibly in the Mid-Atlantic region that did not exist before mid-2023, and each deal has to be integrated, paid for and eventually earn its price, with net leverage at 2.34x at the end of fiscal 2025. They worry that the capital intensity of the model — landfill cells, closure and post-closure obligations, a truck fleet exposed to diesel — absorbs cash continuously, and that the disclosed risks around permitting mean a single denied or delayed permit can strand a growth plan. They also point to the risk factor Casella added itself in the latest filing: diversion programmes and alternatives to landfilling may shrink the disposal volumes and pressure the disposal prices that produce the company's best margins. Finally, they note the operations sit in one part of the country and PFAS regulation applies squarely to landfill operators, so a regional regulatory shift hits nearly the whole company at once.
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Named by Casella in its 10-K as one of the large national haulers it competes against, and the closest match in strategy: both build vertically integrated collection, transfer and landfill networks in secondary and tertiary markets rather than dense metro areas.
Named competitor in Casella's 10-K: it bids for the same municipal and commercial collection contracts and owns disposal capacity in the same Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states.
The largest US solid waste company and a competitor named in Casella's 10-K, competing for the same commercial, industrial and municipal customers and for third-party volumes at landfills and transfer stations.
Listed in the peer group of Casella's own 10-K and active in the same North American collection and disposal business, including states adjacent to Casella's Mid-Atlantic footprint, which it partly sold to Casella in 2023.
A privately held regional hauler with collection, transfer and landfill assets in New Jersey and New York, the type of local competitor Casella's 10-K describes as competing on price and service quality in its own markets.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$1.96B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$6M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$85M
Total Equity
$1.57B
Total Liabilities
$1.73B
Current Ratio
0.99
Interest Coverage
1.01
Debt/EBITDA
3.90
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$94.00
Current Price
$80.35
Margin of Safety
+14.5%
Fair Value Range
$61.10 - $126.89
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
892.78
ROE
0.5%
P/B Ratio
-
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
33.4%
ROIC
1.6%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
1.6%
WACC
7.4%
ROIC − WACC
-5.8 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (11)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 21.19%
- Gross Margin 33.4%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Revenue Growth 5Y 18.9%
- Analyst Consensus 78% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 45.0%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 61.56
Failed (11)
- ROIC 1.6%
- Operating Margin 3.4%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- ROE 0.4%
- Share Dilution 11.5%
- Net Margin Trend 0.3% vs 0.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Unavailable (5)
- P/FCF NaN
- P/B Ratio NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Price below Graham Number
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. John W. Casella Jr. | Executive Chairman | 74 |
| Mr. Edmond R. Coletta | President, CEO & Director | 49 |
| Mr. Bradford J. Helgeson | Executive VP & CFO | 48 |
| Ms. Shelley E. Sayward | Executive VP & General Counsel | 50 |
| Mr. Damian Ribar | Executive VP & COO | - |
| Mr. Kevin J. Drohan | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 44 |
| Henry Baby | Vice President of Investor Relations & Finance | - |
| Mr. Jeffrey A. Stein | Senior Vice President of Corporate Development | 66 |
| Mr. Kelley J. Robinson | Senior Vice President of Human Resources | - |
| Mr. Keith S. Landau | Chief Transformation Officer | - |
Audit Risk
5
Board Risk
8
Compensation Risk
1
Shareholder Rights Risk
10
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-20
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-07
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-10-01
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CWST, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 3/5/2026NEGATIVECasella Waste Stock Down Nearly 20%, but One Fund Just Bought Up $9 Million in Shares
Casella Waste Systems Inc. saw its stock price drop by nearly 20%, even as one fund recently purchased $9 million worth of shares. The company provides integrated waste and recycling services across the northeastern U.S. with a vertically integrated model. The significant stock decline suggests market concerns regarding future outlook or recent operational events, which may have outweighed the positive impact of the fund's investment. Investors should closely monitor the reasons behind the drop and the fund's strategy.
- 2/24/2026NEUTRALCasella Waste (CWST) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) has announced the availability of its Q4 2025 earnings transcript. While the detailed content has not yet been made public, this event marks a critical juncture for investors monitoring the company's performance in the waste management sector. Anticipation is high for the release of key financial data, future projections, and any insights into corporate strategy. Analyzing these documents is essential for assessing Casella's operational health and growth potential, thereby influencing short-to-medium-term investment decisions.
via Markets Gazette