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Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL)

Overvalued
TechnologySemiconductorsUnited States

Fundamental

64

Price

$261.26

Market Cap

$232.72B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Marvell designs semiconductors and licenses them out for manufacturing rather than running its own factories. Its chips move and process data inside data centres — custom silicon built for specific cloud customers' AI systems, plus networking, storage and optical components — alongside older product lines sold into telecom carrier equipment, enterprise networking gear, cars and consumer electronics.

How it makes money

Marvell earns money by selling chips, either as standard catalogue parts or as custom silicon designed for one customer under a multi-year program. Because it owns no fabs, its main costs are design engineering and the manufacturing capacity it buys from outside foundries; a chip win with a hyperscale cloud customer can take years to secure but then delivers volume for the life of that server generation.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Narrow

Once a custom chip is designed into a customer's server platform, both sides are locked in for that generation: redesigning around a different supplier mid-cycle is slow and expensive. But every new server generation reopens the competition, and the same large customers funding this growth are also building some of their own chips in-house, which caps how durable the advantage really is.

What drives demand

Cyclical

Data-centre demand tied to AI investment now dominates results and grew sharply in fiscal 2025 — reaching about 75% of quarterly revenue by year end, up from roughly half at the start of the year — while enterprise networking, carrier and consumer end markets all shrank double digits during an inventory correction. The business has effectively become a bet on a handful of hyperscalers' AI capital spending.

Key risks

  • Concentration in AI data-centre customers — Growth is increasingly dependent on custom-silicon programs for a small number of very large cloud customers; a change in any one program's timeline or scope would have an outsized effect on results.
  • Sharp swings in legacy end markets — Enterprise networking, carrier infrastructure, consumer and automotive/industrial revenue all fell sharply in fiscal 2025 during an inventory correction, showing how quickly demand outside data centres can swing.
  • Dependence on external foundries — As a fabless designer, Marvell relies on third-party foundries for leading-edge manufacturing capacity; a shortage or disruption at a key supplier translates directly into missed shipments.
  • Long, winner-take-most design cycles — Custom chip programs are won years before revenue appears, and each new server generation is fully re-contested; losing a design cycle to a rival or an in-house alternative removes future revenue with little immediate warning.

The case for

Buyers argue that Marvell has secured itself a durable seat at the table of custom AI silicon for the largest cloud providers, and that this data-centre business can keep growing fast enough to make the shrinking legacy segments increasingly irrelevant to the overall result.

The case against

Sellers worry that a business now overwhelmingly dependent on a handful of hyperscale customers' AI budgets is exposed to a sudden pause in that spending, and that those same customers building chips in-house could turn today's design wins into tomorrow's lost accounts.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 44.8Score: 75Market cap: $1.67T

Broadcom is Marvell's closest rival on both of its main data center businesses, bidding for the same hyperscaler custom AI accelerator (ASIC) programs and selling competing PAM4 optical DSPs and Ethernet switching silicon.

P/E: 68.6Score: 72Market cap: $36.83B

Credo sells low-power PAM4 DSPs, retimers and active electrical cables to the same hyperscale data center customers that buy Marvell's interconnect products.

P/E: 176.2Score: 70Market cap: $62.54B

Astera Labs supplies PCIe, CXL and Ethernet connectivity silicon for AI server racks, competing with Marvell's interconnect portfolio inside the same hyperscaler platforms.

P/E: 114.4Score: 55Market cap: $40.56B

Microchip competes with Marvell in storage controllers, data center infrastructure chips and automotive Ethernet, selling to the same OEM and carrier customers.

Alchip Technologies, Limited (世芯電子)Not tracked

Alchip is a Taiwanese custom-ASIC design house that competes for the same hyperscaler AI chip programs Marvell targets, and is named as a competitor in Marvell's latest annual report.

MediaTek Inc. (聯發科技)Not tracked

MediaTek runs a custom-silicon business that bids against Marvell for hyperscaler AI accelerator designs and also competes in networking and connectivity chips.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$9.45B

Trailing 12 months (through 8/1/2026)

Net Income

$2.64B

Trailing 12 months (through 8/1/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$1.40B

Total Equity

$14.31B

Total Liabilities

$7.98B

Current Ratio

3.17

Interest Coverage

7.21

Debt/EBITDA

1.85

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseOvervalued

Fair Value

$152.11

Current Price

$261.26

Margin of Safety

-71.8%

Fair Value Range

$98.87 - $205.35

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$289.11
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$14.46
Earnings multiple (P/E):$136.32
Graham growth formula:$49.33
Earnings power value (EPV):$16.84
Justified P/B:$15.73
Dividend discount (Gordon):$1.90
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$52.36
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (43B / 7H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:-0.30%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

87.49

ROE

18.7%

P/B Ratio

12.50

P/FCF

133.91

Gross Margin

52.2%

ROIC

4.9%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

4.9%

WACC

16.8%

ROIC − WACC

-11.9 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (17)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 34.11%
  • Gross Margin 52.2%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 16.5%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 16.2%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 22.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 86% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.83
  • Share Dilution 0.2%
  • Net Margin Trend 27.9% vs -1.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (9)

  • EPS CAGR 4.63%
  • ROIC 4.9%
  • P/FCF 133.91
  • P/B Ratio 12.50
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -0.1%

Unavailable (2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

0.83

Moderate: some gap between profits and cash

Share Dilution

0.2%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Matthew J. MurphyCEO & Chairman52
Mr. Christopher R. KoopmansPresident & COO48
Mr. Daniel J. DurnCFO, Executive VP & Principal Financial Officer59
Mr. Mark J. Casper Esq.Executive VP, Secretary & Chief Legal Officer57
Mr. Willem A. MeintjesAdvisor44
Mr. Sandeep BharathiPresident of Data Center Group54
Mr. Justin ScarpullaSenior VP & Chief Accounting Officer52
Mr. Ross Clark SeymoreSenior Vice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Gary IgnatinExecutive Vice President of Corporate Development-
Mr. Dean E. Jarnac Jr.Executive VP & Chief Sales Officer52

Audit Risk

7

Board Risk

8

Compensation Risk

10

Shareholder Rights Risk

1

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-03-11

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-28

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-25

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for MRVL, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 10d agoPOSITIVE
    Le azioni Marvell salgono mentre la società presenta tecnologie ottiche a 2nm

    Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) shares climbed 2% on Monday following the unveiling of its next-generation 2-nanometer optical connectivity technologies at the European Conference on Optical Communication (ECOC) 2026 in Málaga, Spain. This innovation addresses the escalating demand from AI data centers for faster, more energy-efficient interconnections between accelerators, processors, and memory. Marvell's demonstrations highlight advancements in boosting bandwidth density and reducing power consumption per bit, crucial for expanding AI infrastructure. The company's focus on these cutting-edge optical solutions positions it favorably to capitalize on the significant growth in AI-driven data traffic and computing power.

  • 20d agoPOSITIVE
    Marvell is sitting on an incredibly ‘sticky’ business that could help it unlock a $30 billion opportunity

    Marvell Technology is poised to capitalize on a significant $30 billion opportunity, according to analyst insights highlighting the untapped potential in its supporting components and optical networking segments. While Marvell is recognized for its custom chip manufacturing, the company's less prominent business lines are now seen as key growth drivers. This strategic focus shift could unlock substantial value, suggesting a robust future revenue stream beyond its traditional custom silicon market. Investors should monitor Marvell's progress in expanding its market share in these high-growth areas, which promise to enhance overall profitability and shareholder returns.

  • 23d agoNEGATIVE
    Marvell Technology: altre perdite in arrivo nonostante ricavi solidi

    Marvell Technology (MRVL) has seen its stock price decline by over 31% from its year-to-date high, mirroring a broader trend in the semiconductor industry. The stock was trading around $223, down 32% from its peak. This downturn affects semiconductor-focused ETFs like the Schwab Semiconductor Index Fund (SOXX) and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which have fallen over 19% and 15% respectively from their annual highs. Despite Marvell's operational strength and key clients such as Google and Amazon, its recent guidance was weaker than anticipated, suggesting potential headwinds for future revenue despite solid current operations.

  • 8/28/2026NEGATIVE
    Marvell Technology scivola nel pre-market in scia a previsioni deludenti e nonostante conti oltre le attese

    Marvell Technology shares plunged approximately 7% in pre-market trading following the release of its latest financial report. While the company's earnings surpassed analyst expectations, its forward-looking guidance failed to meet market consensus. This discrepancy between current performance and future outlook has led to a significant sell-off, indicating investor concern over the company's growth trajectory and potential headwinds. The market's reaction highlights a strong emphasis on future projections over past results for Marvell Technology.

  • 8/27/2026NEUTRAL
    Marvell boosts its forecasts, but the stock slides as Wall Street wonders if there’s more to the story

    Marvell Technology Inc. has raised its financial forecasts, signaling a positive outlook for the company. However, the stock experienced a decline as Wall Street analysts scrutinize a recently announced deal with Google. Investors and analysts are seeking clarity on the long-term implications and the true extent of the upside potential from this partnership. The market's reaction suggests a wait-and-see approach, with a focus on whether the deal's benefits will outweigh any perceived risks or uncertainties.

  • 8/27/2026POSITIVE
    Cosa aspettarsi dai risultati di Marvell dopo il trimestre stellare di Nvidia

    Marvell Technology (MRVL) is under scrutiny as it prepares to report its fiscal Q2 2027 results. Following Nvidia's stellar performance and a strong outlook, investor focus is on Marvell's ability to capture AI infrastructure spending, particularly in networking, optical, and custom chips. The stock has surged over 150% since early 2026, reflecting high expectations. Analysts will be looking for Marvell's revenue and earnings figures to confirm its growth trajectory within the booming AI market, potentially signaling continued upside for the semiconductor sector.

via Markets Gazette