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NIKE, Inc. (NKE)

Undervalued
Consumer CyclicalFootwear & AccessoriesUnited States

Fundamental

64

Price

$35.40

Market Cap

$53.39B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Nike designs, markets and sells athletic footwear, apparel and equipment worldwide under the Nike and Converse brands. It owns no factories: production is contracted to independent manufacturers, mostly in Vietnam, Indonesia and China, while Nike keeps design, marketing and distribution in house. Products reach customers through wholesale partners — department stores, sporting goods chains, franchisees — and through Nike's own stores and digital channels.

How it makes money

Revenue comes from selling physical goods, split between wholesale shipments to retail partners and direct sales through Nike-owned stores and e-commerce (Nike Direct). Margins depend on how much of the mix runs through the higher-margin direct channel versus wholesale, and on how much of a premium the brand can charge over competing products — a premium built on marketing spend, athlete endorsement contracts and continuous product turnover.

Revenue by segment

North America44.2%

The largest single market, covering the United States and Canada across both wholesale and Nike Direct.

Europe, Middle East & Africa27.1%

Second-largest region, spanning a wide range of income levels and football-driven demand.

Asia Pacific & Latin America13.5%

A wide grouping of developed and emerging markets outside the other three regions.

Greater China12.6%

China, Hong Kong and Taiwan; the region with the sharpest recent revenue decline as local competitors gain ground.

Converse2.5%

A separate footwear brand run as its own operating segment, much smaller than the core Nike business.

Competitive moat

Brand · Narrow

Decades of marketing spend and athlete endorsements built a brand that commands a price premium and secures prime shelf space with retailers worldwide. That advantage is real but no longer unchallenged: revenue has declined for two straight fiscal years as Adidas, On, Hoka and other rivals take share, particularly in China.

What drives demand

Cyclical

Footwear and apparel are discretionary purchases: households cut back when budgets tighten, and wholesale partners cut orders further in anticipation. Demand also swings with fashion cycles and with how fresh Nike's product line looks against competitors, not only with the economy.

Key risks

  • Manufacturing concentrated in a few countries — Nike owns no factories and depends on independent contract manufacturers concentrated in Vietnam, Indonesia and China; disruption at a handful of them affects supply broadly.
  • Trade policy and tariffs — The company is exposed to tariffs, import duties and other protectionist measures on goods manufactured abroad and sold in the United States and elsewhere.
  • Intense competition — The athletic footwear and apparel market includes numerous established and emerging brands competing on price, innovation and marketing reach.
  • Currency and commodity volatility — A global business collects revenue and pays costs in many currencies and raw material prices, so exchange-rate and commodity swings move reported results.
  • Counterfeiting and IP infringement — The company periodically discovers counterfeit products and infringement of its trademarks and designs, which can dilute the brand and divert sales.

Customer concentration

No single customer reaches 10% of consolidated revenue, but the top three wholesale customers account for about 29% of U.S. sales and the top three non-U.S. customers for about 16% of international sales, so a handful of large retail chains still matter disproportionately.

The case for

Buyers argue that the Nike brand remains the strongest in the industry, that a renewed focus on sport-led product innovation and tighter wholesale discipline can rebuild margins, and that the recent share losses to smaller rivals are a cyclical stumble rather than a structural decline.

The case against

Sellers fear that two consecutive years of revenue decline, sharpest in China, show a brand losing relevance to newer competitors, that tariffs on goods made in Vietnam, Indonesia and China compress margins further, and that rebuilding wholesale relationships takes years even if the product turnaround works.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 18.2Score: 64Market cap: $24.90B

The closest global rival to NIKE across performance footwear, sportswear apparel and football/basketball sponsorships, sold to the same consumers through the same wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels.

P/E: 11.1Score: 80Market cap: $10.69B

Through the HOKA brand it takes share from NIKE in premium performance running shoes sold in the same specialty run and athletic retailers.

PUMA SEPUM

Competes for the same sport-performance and sport-lifestyle customer in football, running and training, and for the same athlete and team sponsorships in Europe and the Americas.

On Holding AGONON

A fast-growing premium running and training brand competing for the same performance-footwear buyer and increasingly for the same shelf space in North America and Europe.

ANTA Sports Products Limited (安踏体育用品有限公司)2020.HK

The leading domestic sportswear group in Greater China, where it competes head-on with NIKE for the same running, basketball and outdoor consumers.

New Balance Athletics, Inc.Not tracked

Privately held US brand competing with NIKE in running and lifestyle sneakers across the same retail doors in North America, Europe and Asia.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$46.40B

Trailing 12 months (through 5/31/2026)

Net Income

$3.11B

Trailing 12 months (through 5/31/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$2.18B

Total Equity

$14.87B

Total Liabilities

$23.55B

Current Ratio

1.96

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

2.24

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$54.58

Current Price

$35.40

Margin of Safety

+35.1%

Fair Value Range

$35.48 - $73.69

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$47.32
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$98.54
Earnings multiple (P/E):$44.93
Graham growth formula:$15.71
Earnings power value (EPV):$19.58
Justified P/B:$28.55
Dividend discount (Gordon):$26.76
P/FFO, funds from operations:$72.11
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$53.63
Analyst Consensus:Buy (18B / 25H / 3S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+50.15%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

16.86

ROE

20.9%

P/B Ratio

2.04

P/FCF

13.86

Gross Margin

42.9%

ROIC

-

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-

WACC

8.5%

ROIC − WACC

-

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (15)

  • Gross Margin 42.9%
  • P/FCF 13.86
  • P/B Ratio 2.04
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 22.0%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 47.6%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.92
  • Share Dilution -0.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Failed (8)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -3.16%
  • Price CAGR -3.38%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 0.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 39% Buy
  • Net Margin Trend 6.7% vs 7.0%

Unavailable (5)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

0.92

Moderate: some gap between profits and cash

Share Dilution

-0.7%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Mark G. ParkerExecutive Chairman69
Mr. Elliott J. HillCEO, President & Director61
Mr. Venkatesh AlagirisamyExecutive VP & COO48
Mr. Robert LeinwandEVP & Chief Legal Officer-
Ms. Treasure HeinleExecutive VP and Chief Human Resources & People Officer-
Mr. Matthew FriendAdvisor47
Mr. Philip H. KnightCo-Founder & Chairman Emeritus87
Mr. David M. DentonExecutive VP, CFO, Interim Corporate Controller & Principal Accounting Officer60
Mr. Michael GondaEVP & Chief Communications and Strategy Officer-
Ms. Nicole Hubbard GrahamExecutive VP & Chief Marketing Officer-

Audit Risk

9

Board Risk

9

Compensation Risk

10

Shareholder Rights Risk

10

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-07-15

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-04-01

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-16

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for NKE, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 19h agoNEGATIVE
    Azioni Nike potrebbero scendere dopo utili Q1: i dettagli

    Nike is facing significant investor disappointment heading into its Q1 2026 earnings report on October 1st. The consensus forecast anticipates earnings per share of $0.44 on revenues of $11.34 billion, both representing year-over-year declines. Year-to-date, Nike shares have plummeted by 80%. Options market data indicates a prevailing sentiment that the stock is likely to fall further post-earnings, despite ongoing turnaround efforts led by CEO Elliott Hill. The put-to-call ratio on expiring options suggests a bearish outlook among traders.

  • 3d agoNEUTRAL
    Nike vicino al minimo in 12 anni: gli utili potrebbero cambiare tutto

    Nike shares are trading near a 12-year low, closing Friday at $35.75, down 44% year-to-date. Bank of America recently warned that a recovery might take longer than anticipated. The company is set to report its fiscal first-quarter results after market close on Thursday. Wall Street analysts are forecasting earnings per share of $0.44 on revenues of $11.35 billion. Investors will be closely watching CEO Elliott Hill's commentary on distribution strategies and any indications of a turnaround to gauge the stock's future direction.

  • 6d agoNEGATIVE
    Nike: il titolo non ha ancora toccato il fondo, avverte un'analista

    Nike Inc. (NKE) shares faced renewed pressure following a downgrade by Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson to 'underperform'. Hutchinson also slashed her price target for NKE to $30, indicating a potential 15% downside from current levels. This downgrade is particularly impactful as Nike stock has already been a significant disappointment for investors in 2026, trading down approximately 45% from its yearly high. The bearish outlook stems from expectations of continued revenue weakness across key athletic footwear segments.

  • 6d agoNEGATIVE
    Nike’s stock is one of the worst in the S&P 500 — and BofA says it’s not done sliding

    Nike's stock has been among the worst performers in the S&P 500, and Bank of America analysts predict further declines. Their latest report forecasts continued falling sales through May, contradicting earlier expectations of a "spring inflection." This revised outlook suggests ongoing challenges for the sportswear giant, potentially impacting its market share and profitability. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming earnings reports and management guidance for signs of a turnaround strategy or further headwinds.

  • 13d agoNEGATIVE
    Nike sottotono a Wall Street, Mbappé diventa testimonial della svizzera On

    Nike Inc. shares experienced a decline of over 2% on Wall Street following the announcement that Swiss competitor On has signed French football star Kylian Mbappé as a testimonial. Mbappé was previously associated with Nike. This move by On signals an aggressive expansion strategy, potentially impacting Nike's market share and brand appeal, particularly among younger demographics. Investors are watching closely to see how Nike responds to this competitive challenge and if it affects future sales projections.

  • 14d agoNEGATIVE
    Nike bets on a millennial Arnault heir after bleeding $200 billion and being ousted from the S&P 100

    Nike has appointed Alexandre Arnault to its board of directors, a move that comes as the sportswear giant faces significant challenges. The company has seen its market value plummet by approximately $200 billion and was recently removed from the S&P 100 index. Arnault, known for his role in revitalizing luxury brands like Rimowa and Tiffany & Co., joins Nike as it struggles to reignite growth and maintain its cultural relevance among consumers, particularly millennials. Investors will be watching closely to see if this strategic addition can help reverse Nike's recent performance decline.

  • 23d agoNEGATIVE
    Nike exits the S&P 100 after 18 years and a $200 billion market-cap wipeout

    Nike Inc. is set to be removed from the S&P 100 index, a move that follows an 18-year tenure and a significant market capitalization decline of approximately $200 billion. This exclusion, effective September 21st, marks a stark reversal for the sportswear giant, which has experienced a nearly 80% stock price slump over the past five years. The primary driver cited for this prolonged downturn is weakness in the Chinese market, impacting Nike's global performance and investor sentiment. The replacement by a technology company in the S&P 100 underscores the shifting market dynamics and challenges faced by traditional consumer brands.

  • 23d agoNEUTRAL
    From Nike to Starbucks, Tariff Relief for Stocks Is Fleeting

    Nike and Starbucks, among other major US retailers and manufacturers, are experiencing a fleeting benefit from the recent tariff relief implemented by the Trump administration. While this policy shift offers some respite from import duties, the market reaction suggests the positive impact on share prices is minimal. This is largely attributed to the fact that the cumulative losses incurred by these companies during the period of high tariffs significantly outweigh the current gains from their reduction. Investors are likely to remain cautious, awaiting more substantial and sustained positive developments.

  • 24d agoNEGATIVE
    Nike fuori dall'S&P 100; titolo al minimo in 12 anni — cosa affligge NKE?

    Nike Inc. is set to be removed from the S&P 100 index, a move that underscores the sportswear giant's significant market value decline over recent years. The exclusion, effective September 21st, follows an extended period of slowing growth and intensified competition. While Nike will remain in the broader S&P 500, its departure from the S&P 100 signals a notable shift in its market standing. Investors should note this as a bearish indicator reflecting ongoing challenges in Nike's business performance and competitive positioning.

via Markets Gazette