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Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)

Undervalued
Consumer CyclicalAuto & Truck DealershipsUnited States

Fundamental

66

Price

$200.34

Market Cap

$13.61B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Penske Automotive Group is an international transportation-services retailer. Its core business is owning and operating franchised vehicle dealerships: it sells new and used cars and light trucks, arranges the financing and insurance that go with them, and services and repairs vehicles through its dealership workshops. Alongside the car business it runs one of the largest networks of heavy- and medium-duty commercial truck dealerships in North America (Premier Truck Group, mainly Freightliner and Western Star), and it distributes Western Star trucks, MAN and Dennis Eagle trucks and diesel engines in Australia and New Zealand. Operations span the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, with more than 27,700 employees; the United States accounts for 62% of revenue and the United Kingdom 26%. Over 40 vehicle brands are represented, and premium marques such as Audi, BMW, Land Rover, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche generate 71% of franchised retail automotive dealership revenue. Separately, Penske holds a 28.9% non-controlling interest in Penske Truck Leasing (trading as Penske Transportation Solutions), a truck leasing and logistics joint venture that does not consolidate into revenue but contributed $192.8 million of equity earnings in 2025.

How it makes money

Revenue comes almost entirely from selling vehicles, but the profit does not. In 2025 new vehicles were 40.4% of total company revenue yet only 22.3% of gross profit, and used vehicles 28.1% of revenue against 9.0% of gross profit: metal moves at thin margins. The money is made on the attachments. Finance and insurance — commissions on loans, leases and warranty products written at the point of sale — was 2.6% of revenue but 15.7% of gross profit, essentially pure margin. Service and parts was 10.6% of revenue and 37.8% of gross profit, the single largest profit pool, and it is recurring: the company measures how much of its fixed dealership cost base the service department alone covers (a 75.7% 'fixed absorption ratio' in retail automotive in 2025). Fleet and wholesale sales add 4.7% of revenue and 1.1% of gross profit. The same pattern holds in commercial trucks, where service and parts contributed 2.8% of revenue and 7.1% of gross profit. Vehicle inventory is financed with floor-plan credit lines from manufacturers' captive finance arms and banks, so inventory is funded by debt rather than by equity.

Revenue by segment

Retail Automotive Dealerships86.4%

Franchised and used-only car dealerships in eight countries selling new and used cars and light trucks to retail consumers, plus the finance, insurance, service and parts sold around them. Premium European and Japanese brands make up 71% of franchised dealership revenue in this segment.

Retail Commercial Truck Dealerships10.7%

Premier Truck Group, a network of dealerships in the United States and Canada selling new and used medium- and heavy-duty trucks — chiefly Freightliner and Western Star — to fleet operators and owner-drivers, with parts and workshop service attached.

Commercial Vehicle Distribution and Other2.9%

Importer and distributor of Western Star, MAN and Dennis Eagle trucks, buses and diesel and gas engines in Australia and New Zealand, sold to independent dealers and to fleet and industrial customers, together with retail power-systems activities.

Competitive moat

Patents and licences · Narrow

The durable asset is the franchise right itself. A manufacturer grants the right to sell and, crucially, to perform warranty work on a brand in a defined area, and state franchise laws in the U.S. make those rights hard to revoke or duplicate; they cannot be bought except from an incumbent owner. That gives each store a protected service and parts annuity, the highest-margin part of the business, and Penske's scale — over 40 brands across eight countries, weighted to premium marques — spreads back-office, floor-plan financing and used-vehicle sourcing costs more thinly than a single-store operator can. The advantage is narrow rather than wide because the same filing describes how much control sits on the other side of the table: manufacturers set territories, capital and facility requirements, and hold rights to terminate franchises or acquire dealerships in defined circumstances, and they cap how many dealerships one group may own in some markets. The retailer cannot raise prices on a new vehicle at will and does not own the brand it sells.

What drives demand

Cyclical

Around two thirds of revenue is new and used vehicle sales, the textbook discretionary big-ticket purchase: it is financed, so it responds to interest rates and credit availability, and it can be postponed when households feel poorer. Commercial trucks are more cyclical still, tracking freight rates and fleet replacement cycles rather than the consumer. What cushions the fall is the workshop: service and parts demand follows the number of vehicles already on the road and their age, not this year's sales, and in 2025 it covered 75.7% of the fixed cost base of the retail automotive dealerships. So revenue swings hard with the cycle while a large share of gross profit swings much less — and a bad year for new car volumes still leaves cars needing servicing.

Key risks

  • Manufacturers exercise significant control over the dealerships — Framework and franchise agreements let vehicle manufacturers dictate operating standards, capital and facility investment and inventory allocation, and grant them rights to terminate or not renew a franchise, and in specified circumstances to acquire dealerships. The company's ability to run its own stores as it sees fit is therefore limited by parties it does not control.
  • Tariffs and trade measures — U.S. tariffs on imported vehicles and parts, and trade measures affecting the company's suppliers, are disclosed as a risk to vehicle cost, availability and consumer pricing. Penske sells a portfolio weighted to imported premium brands, so measures aimed at imports bear directly on its mix.
  • Vehicle emissions rules and electric-vehicle mandates — Emissions standards and mandated electric-vehicle sales shares — the filing cites a 33% EV requirement in the United Kingdom for 2026 — can force the company to sell a mix that differs from what its customers are asking for, with consequences for discounting, inventory and compliance.
  • Limits on acquiring additional dealerships — Franchise agreements impose geographic restrictions and caps on how many dealerships or what share of a brand's sales one owner may hold, which constrains the acquisition-led growth the company has historically relied on in certain markets.
  • Cyclicality of vehicle sales and used-vehicle pricing — Economic conditions, consumer credit availability and confidence drive vehicle demand, and movements in used-vehicle values affect both the margin on units already in stock and trade-in values. Both are disclosed as outside the company's control.
  • Cybersecurity incidents, including at suppliers — A security breach or unauthorised disclosure of customer or company data could disrupt operations and expose the company to investigations, litigation and penalties. The filing also notes supply disruption caused by a cybersecurity incident at a manufacturer, citing Jaguar Land Rover — a reminder that the dealer suffers when a supplier's systems stop.

Customer concentration

The filing does not disclose a top-customer share, and for this business it would not be meaningful: the retail automotive segment, 86.4% of revenue, sells one vehicle at a time to individual consumers, so there is no customer large enough to matter. Where concentration exists it is on the other side of the transaction — supplier and brand concentration. Premium marques account for 71% of franchised retail automotive dealership revenue, the commercial truck segment depends chiefly on Freightliner and Western Star products, and manufacturers control the franchise agreements. Geographic concentration is also worth noting: the United States is 62% of revenue and the United Kingdom 26%. Commercial truck and distribution customers are fleets and independent dealers, a smaller and more repeat-based base, but the filing gives no figure for how concentrated it is.

The case for

Buyers argue that the profit engine is not the part of the business that looks cyclical. Service and parts plus finance and insurance together produced 53.5% of gross profit in 2025 on 13.2% of revenue, and the workshop alone covered 75.7% of the retail automotive fixed cost base, so a downturn in unit sales does not hollow out the earnings the way headline revenue suggests. They point to the premium mix — 71% of franchised automotive revenue from brands like BMW, Porsche and Mercedes-Benz — as a customer base that keeps servicing its cars and finances them readily, and to geographic spread across eight countries as diversification away from any single national cycle. They also note the 28.9% stake in Penske Transportation Solutions, which contributed $192.8 million of equity earnings and $98.7 million of cash distributions in 2025 without appearing in consolidated revenue at all: an asset whose contribution is easy to miss when reading the income statement from the top. Finally, franchise rights are protected by law and can only be acquired from an incumbent, which buyers read as a structural barrier that keeps new competitors from simply opening next door.

The case against

Sellers fear that the company sits between two forces it does not control. Upstream, manufacturers set the standards, the facility investments and the inventory allocation, and hold the right to terminate a franchise or acquire dealerships in defined circumstances; downstream, the customer is a household deciding whether to finance a big-ticket purchase. Between them sits a balance sheet where vehicle inventory is funded with floor-plan credit and a large part of borrowing carries variable rates, so higher interest expense arrives at exactly the moment demand softens. They point to the disclosed risks around tariffs on imported vehicles and parts, which strike hardest at the imported premium mix that carries the profit, and to European and U.K. electric-vehicle mandates that can force a sales mix the customer has not asked for, paid for with discounts. New and used vehicle sales are 68.5% of revenue but only 31.3% of gross profit, so a period of margin normalisation in vehicle gross profit hits earnings much harder than revenue. And growth by acquisition, the historical engine, is capped in some markets by geographic and ownership limits written into the franchise agreements themselves.

Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 34.2Score: 65Market cap: $8.00B

The largest US used-vehicle retailer, competing with Penske for the same used-car buyers and trade-in inventory as well as for the attached financing and warranty revenue.

Group 1 Automotive, Inc.GPI

The closest peer: a franchised dealer group with a comparable luxury and import brand mix that sells, finances and services new and used cars in the same US metro markets and in the United Kingdom, the two regions where Penske retails most of its vehicles.

Lithia Motors, Inc. (Lithia & Driveway)LAD

The largest US franchised auto retailer by revenue, competing with Penske for the same new-vehicle buyers, service customers and dealership acquisitions, and pushing the same online-plus-showroom purchase model through Driveway.

AutoNation, Inc.AN

A national franchised dealership chain overlapping with Penske in large Sun Belt and coastal markets, competing on new and used vehicle sales, finance and insurance products and fixed-operations service work.

Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.ABG

Another large franchised group weighted toward luxury and import franchises, bidding for the same manufacturer franchise awards and the same premium-brand customers in shared US regions.

Sonic Automotive, Inc. (including EchoPark)SAH

A franchised dealer group with a similar luxury brand concentration whose EchoPark stores compete head-on with Penske's stand-alone used-vehicle business for the same pre-owned buyers.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$32.20B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$906M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$650M

Total Equity

$5.56B

Total Liabilities

$12.02B

Current Ratio

0.98

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

3.59

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$304.50

Current Price

$200.34

Margin of Safety

+34.2%

Fair Value Range

$197.93 - $411.08

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$212.14
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$544.34
Earnings multiple (P/E):$203.90
Graham growth formula:$491.38
Earnings power value (EPV):$167.24
Justified P/B:$188.46
Dividend discount (Gordon):$96.48
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:$195.35
Revenue multiple:$830.72
Analyst Consensus:Hold (5B / 10H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+4.84%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

14.56

ROE

16.8%

P/B Ratio

2.26

P/FCF

22.61

Gross Margin

16.1%

ROIC

8.9%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

8.9%

WACC

7.0%

ROIC − WACC

+1.9 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 15.34%
  • ROIC 8.9%
  • P/FCF 22.61
  • P/B Ratio 2.26
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 16.5%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 9.2%
  • PEG Ratio 0.92
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.99
  • Share Dilution -1.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (9)

  • Gross Margin 16.1%
  • Operating Margin 4.0%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 33% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.9%
  • Net Margin Trend 2.8% vs 3.2%

Unavailable (2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

0.99

Moderate: some gap between profits and cash

Share Dilution

-1.0%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Roger S. Penske Sr.Chairman & CEO88
Mr. Robert H. Kurnick Jr.President & Director63
Ms. Michelle HulgraveExecutive VP & CFO46
Mr. Shane M. SpradlinExecutive VP, General Counsel & Secretary55
Mr. Claude H. Denker IIIExecutive Vice President of Human Resources66
Mr. Yosuke KawakamiExecutive VP of Strategic Relationship Management & Director54
Mr. Richard A. HookExecutive VP & Chief Information Officer50
Mr. Anthony R. PordonExecutive Vice President of Investor Relations & Corporate Development60
Ms. Tracy CassadyExecutive VP & Chief Marketing Officer52
Mr. George W. BrochickExecutive Vice President of Strategic Development75

Audit Risk

3

Board Risk

7

Compensation Risk

3

Shareholder Rights Risk

4

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-27

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-07-30

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-08-10

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for PAG, sourced from Markets Gazette.

No recent news for PAG.