Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Fair ValueFundamental
49
Price
$354.81
Market Cap
$1.49T
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Tesla designs, manufactures and sells electric vehicles directly to buyers, without a franchised dealer network, and builds its own battery cells at vertically integrated factories in the US, China and Germany. Alongside cars it sells energy-storage batteries and solar equipment to homes and utilities, and is pushing into new, unproven lines: paid driving-assistance software, a robotaxi service, and Optimus, a humanoid robot still in early development.
How it makes money
Tesla earns most of its money selling vehicles outright, recognizing revenue on delivery rather than through a dealer network, which keeps a larger slice of the sale price but pushes service, financing and inventory risk onto the company itself. It also sells high-margin regulatory emissions credits to other automakers who need them to meet clean-air rules. A growing services line covers Supercharging, insurance and paid driving-assistance software subscriptions.
Revenue by segment
Sales and leases of electric vehicles, plus automotive regulatory credits sold to other manufacturers.
Megapack and Powerwall battery systems sold to utilities and homeowners, plus solar panels and roofing.
Used-car sales, paid Supercharging, non-warranty maintenance, insurance and parts and merchandise sales.
Competitive moat
Cost advantage · NarrowTesla builds its own battery cells and runs vertically integrated Gigafactories, which has kept its unit production costs below most legacy automakers and funded the largest fast-charging network in North America. But Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have matched or undercut Tesla's costs, so the advantage is narrowing rather than widening as competition intensifies.
What drives demand
CyclicalVehicle purchases are large, discretionary, and sensitive to interest rates, financing costs and government incentives, all of which can shift abruptly with policy changes. Demand has swung sharply in several markets as EV tax credits and subsidies were reduced or removed, showing how much of Tesla's volume depends on conditions outside its control.
Key risks
- Intensifying EV competition — Chinese manufacturers and legacy automakers are launching competitive electric vehicles at lower prices, eroding the cost and technology lead Tesla built in its early years.
- Supplier and manufacturing dependence — Tesla relies on suppliers, including single-source ones, for critical components; a shortage or disruption at any of them can directly delay production and deliveries.
- Dependence on Elon Musk — Tesla's strategy, product direction and public profile are closely tied to Elon Musk, who also runs several other companies; his divided attention or departure would be a material loss for Tesla.
- Unproven new product lines — Robotaxi services, full self-driving software and the Optimus robot are still in early, nascent stages, face significant technical and regulatory hurdles, and compete against well-funded rivals.
The case for
Buyers argue that Tesla's lead in vertical integration and self-driving software will eventually translate into higher-margin businesses such as robotaxis and robots, and that its Supercharger network and brand keep customers loyal even as EV competition grows.
The case against
Sellers fear that Chinese and legacy competitors are closing the EV cost gap faster than the new robotaxi and robot businesses can generate revenue, and that much of the company's valuation rests on projects that remain unproven.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$103.62B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$3.80B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$6.22B
Total Equity
$82.14B
Total Liabilities
$54.94B
Current Ratio
1.94
Interest Coverage
13.09
Debt/EBITDA
1.50
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$396.62
Current Price
$354.81
Margin of Safety
+10.5%
Fair Value Range
$376.79 - $416.45
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
328.53
ROE
4.6%
P/B Ratio
16.13
P/FCF
243.20
Gross Margin
18.9%
ROIC
3.0%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
3.0%
WACC
14.0%
ROIC − WACC
-10.9 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (13)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 38.88%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Revenue Growth 5Y 24.6%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 4.91
- Share Dilution 1.1%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (13)
- ROIC 3.1%
- Gross Margin 18.9%
- P/FCF 243.20
- P/B Ratio 16.13
- Operating Margin 4.2%
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE 4.6%
- Analyst Consensus 49% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg -7.0%
- PEG Ratio 10.29
- Net Margin Trend 3.7% vs 6.3%
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Elon R. Musk | Co-Founder, Technoking of Tesla, CEO & Director | 54 |
| Mr. Vaibhav Taneja | Chief Financial Officer | 47 |
| Mr. Xiaotong Zhu | Senior Vice President of APAC & Global Vehicle Manufacturing | 45 |
| Travis Axelrod | Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Brandon Ehrhart | General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | - |
| Mr. Franz von Holzhausen | Chief Designer | - |
| Ms. Roxanne Inskip-Kaye | Head of Operations - Electric Vehicle Business | - |
| Mr. John Walker | Vice President of Sales - North America | 62 |
| Mr. Rodney D. Westmoreland Jr. | Director of Construction Management | - |
| Mr. Lars Moravy | Vice President of Vehicle Engineering | - |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
10
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
9
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-01-29
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-23
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-29
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for TSLA, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 2d agoNEUTRALTesla Lines Up $30 Billion to Borrow With Spending on Rise
Tesla Inc. has secured $30 billion in new loans and credit facilities, signaling an increased capital expenditure strategy. The funds are earmarked for significant investments in artificial intelligence and robotics initiatives, suggesting a pivot or expansion beyond its core electric vehicle manufacturing. While securing substantial financing can be seen as a positive step for growth, the increased borrowing and investment focus may also introduce higher financial leverage and execution risk. Investors will be watching closely to see if these AI and robotics ventures can deliver future returns commensurate with the capital deployed.
- 3d agoNEUTRALAzioni Tesla: perché il prossimo report sulle consegne potrebbe contare poco
Tesla is set for a pivotal week with the unveiling of its next-generation Roadster and its Q3 delivery report. Despite the historical significance of delivery numbers, Wall Street's focus has shifted to high-margin technological catalysts, including the Roadster, robotaxi network, and Physical AI initiatives. While the stock dipped 3% on Monday ahead of the delivery report, it has recovered approximately 20% from its year-to-date low. This suggests that while delivery figures are a factor, future growth drivers are currently taking precedence in market sentiment.
- 3d agoNEGATIVEPrevisioni su Tesla: principali catalizzatori per le azioni TSLA questa settimana
Tesla shares have experienced recent downward pressure, trading at $372 after a peak of $384 last week, amid investor concerns about its business operations. Key catalysts this week include the release of Q3 delivery data, which is crucial for assessing the company's performance. Expectations are for a decline in Q3 deliveries compared to the previous quarter. Goldman Sachs notably reduced its delivery target from 490,000 to 435,000 units, signaling potential headwinds. Investors will scrutinize these figures for insights into Tesla's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.
- 6d agoNEGATIVETesla’s stock falls as launch of Semi truck fails to excite investors
Tesla's stock experienced a decline following the launch of its Semi truck, as investors expressed a lack of enthusiasm. While the potential for autonomous trucking is recognized as a significant market opportunity, the company's initial targets and production ramp-up plans for the Semi remain unclear. This ambiguity has led to investor caution, overshadowing the technological advancements. The market is seeking concrete details on volume, delivery timelines, and profitability projections to assess the Semi's true impact on Tesla's valuation.
- 7d agoNEUTRALAs diesel prices surge, Tesla makes its big play for the trucking market
Tesla is reintroducing its heavy-duty, all-electric truck amidst a surge in diesel prices, a strategic move to capture market share in the trucking industry. However, the article suggests this initiative might not be sufficient to significantly boost investor sentiment for Tesla. The timing is opportune given rising fuel costs, which typically favor alternative energy solutions. Investors will be watching closely to see if the electric truck can compete effectively on cost and performance against traditional diesel counterparts and if it can translate into substantial revenue growth for Tesla.
- 10d agoNEUTRALElon Musk, Jensen Huang and Tim Cook are set to dine this week with Xi. Here’s what their companies want from China.
Elon Musk of Tesla is scheduled to dine with Xi Jinping this week, alongside leaders from Nvidia and Citi. Tesla's significant operations in China, particularly its Shanghai factory, highlight the company's deep reliance on the Chinese market. While the meeting is framed as a high-level discussion, the specific outcomes for Tesla and its peers remain uncertain. Investors will be monitoring any potential policy shifts or market access developments that could impact Tesla's substantial investments and sales within China.
via Markets Gazette