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DaVita Inc (DVA)

Infravalorada
HealthcareMedical Care FacilitiesUnited States

Fundamental

72

Precio

$174.92

Capitalización Bursátil

$11.43B

Parte 1 · Cuánto vale la empresa

Resumen

DaVita Inc. is one of the two large dialysis providers in the United States. It treats people whose kidneys have failed (end stage kidney disease), who need their blood filtered by machine roughly three times a week for the rest of their lives unless they receive a transplant. At the end of 2025 DaVita operated 2,657 outpatient dialysis centers in 46 states and the District of Columbia, serving about 200,500 patients, plus 585 centers in 14 other countries serving about 94,500 patients. Alongside the centers it runs an integrated kidney care business that manages the total medical cost of about 66,000 patients in risk-based arrangements, and it supports home dialysis for patients who treat themselves. This is essential, non-deferrable medical treatment: a patient who stops dialysis dies within weeks.

Cómo genera ingresos

DaVita is paid per treatment, by whoever insures the patient. The economics turn entirely on payor mix. In 2025, 57% of U.S. dialysis revenue came from Medicare and Medicare Advantage, 7% from Medicaid and managed Medicaid, 3% from other government programs — 68% in total from government-based programs, which pay a fixed bundled rate set by CMS that sits at or below the cost of care — and 32% from commercial insurance, which pays several times the government rate. About 90% of U.S. dialysis patients are covered by some form of government program and only about 11% by commercial plans, so a small minority of patients generates roughly a third of the revenue and effectively the whole profit. Patients typically arrive with commercial coverage and shift to Medicare after a 33-month coordination period, which makes the flow of new commercially insured patients a permanent input to earnings rather than a one-off.

Ingresos por segmento

U.S. dialysis86.4%

Outpatient, hospital inpatient and home dialysis services and related laboratory services in the United States, billed to Medicare, Medicaid and commercial insurers. This is the only separately reportable segment and generated $11.793 billion of revenue in 2025.

International9.9%

Dialysis centers outside the United States — 585 centers in 14 countries — paid mostly by national health systems and local insurers. Revenue was $1.346 billion in 2025.

U.S. ancillary services4.2%

Mainly integrated kidney care ($542 million in 2025), where DaVita takes on part of the total medical cost of a kidney patient population under risk-based contracts with payors, plus other smaller U.S. ancillary businesses ($34 million).

Ventaja competitiva

Escala · Estrecha

Two companies treat most U.S. dialysis patients, and DaVita is one of them. Scale matters here in a concrete way: density of centers in a region determines how well shifts and staff can be filled, purchasing volume determines the price paid for dialysis machines, supplies and drugs, and size is what makes a company worth contracting with for a national commercial payor. Centers are also licensed and certified facility by facility, which slows any new entrant. The limit of the advantage is that the largest customer — Medicare — sets its own price by regulation and is unmoved by scale, and the profitable commercial rates are renegotiated contract by contract rather than protected by anything structural.

Qué impulsa la demanda

Defensivo

Demand for dialysis does not follow the economy. A patient in kidney failure needs three treatments a week whether the market is rising or falling, and cannot postpone them. What moves volumes instead is the patient census: how many new patients start treatment, how many receive a transplant, and how many die — mortality is the dominant reason patients leave. The one channel through which the economy does reach DaVita is insurance coverage: a recession that pushes people from employer plans onto Medicaid or Medicare shifts revenue toward the lower-paying government rate without changing the number of treatments at all. So volumes are defensive; the price per treatment is not entirely.

Riesgos clave

  • Participation in government healthcare programs — DaVita discloses that it is subject to the risks of participating in Medicare and Medicaid, which together with other government programs funded 68% of U.S. dialysis revenue in 2025 at rates set by CMS. The company states that uncertainty about future payment rates is a material risk, and that coverage determinations or rule changes by CMS or its Medicare Administrative Contractors can change what it is paid. Under the ESRD Quality Incentive Program, a facility's bundled payment can be cut by up to 2% based on its measured quality scores.
  • A decline in the number or percentage of commercially insured patients — The company lists as a risk factor that if the number or percentage of its patients with higher-paying commercial insurance declines, its revenue and operating results would be adversely affected. Commercial plans covered about 11% of U.S. dialysis patients but produced 32% of U.S. dialysis revenue in 2025, so the mix is far more powerful than the patient count.
  • Negotiating and maintaining contracts with private payors — DaVita discloses the risk that it may be unable to negotiate and maintain contracts with private payors on competitive terms. These are the contracts that set the rates on the commercial business, and they are renegotiated periodically.
  • A complex set of laws, regulations and other requirements — The company states that its business is subject to a complex set of governmental laws, regulations and other requirements — including Medicare and Medicaid rules, fraud and abuse laws and privacy laws such as HIPAA — and that failing to meet them, or changes to them, could materially affect the business and its reputation.
  • Lawsuits, qui tam suits, government investigations and audits — DaVita discloses that it is, and may in the future be, party to various lawsuits, demands, claims, qui tam (whistleblower) suits, governmental investigations and audits and other legal matters. In a business that bills federal programs for most of its treatments, these proceedings are a recurring feature rather than an exceptional event.
  • Health conditions, demographic trends, weather and general conditions — The company lists global health conditions, changing population or demographic trends, severe weather events or natural disasters and general economic and political conditions among its risk factors. These bear directly on the patient census: patient mortality and the rate at which new patients arrive determine treatment volumes, and centers can be closed by a storm.

Concentración de clientes

The real customers are the payors, not the patients. The single largest is the U.S. government: Medicare and Medicare Advantage accounted for 57% of U.S. dialysis revenue in 2025, and government programs together for 68%. On the commercial side the filing states that no single commercial payor accounted for more than 10% of total U.S. dialysis revenues in 2025, so concentration within private insurance is limited. The filing does not state a top-customers share of consolidated revenue, so no number is given here.

Los argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that the treatment cannot be skipped and the patient base is close to captive: volumes barely notice the economy, and a duopoly structure with high certification barriers makes a new competitor unlikely to appear. They point to the cash the U.S. dialysis segment throws off — $2.084 billion of operating income on $11.793 billion of revenue in 2025 — which management has long used to retire shares, and they see room in international operations and in integrated kidney care, where DaVita is paid to manage the total cost of a patient rather than per treatment, a model that would reward it for keeping patients out of hospital. Some also argue that the shift toward home dialysis lowers the cost of serving a patient over time.

Los argumentos en contra

Sellers fear the payor mix. Commercial plans cover about 11% of U.S. dialysis patients but supply 32% of U.S. dialysis revenue, while government programs pay a bundled rate that is at or below the cost of care — so the entire profit rests on a thin slice of patients whose rates are renegotiated contract by contract and whose number the company itself flags as a risk factor. A legislative or regulatory change to how commercially insured kidney patients are handled, or a reimbursement decision by CMS, lands directly on earnings with nothing to absorb it. They also point to the regulatory surface: the company discloses ongoing exposure to qui tam suits, government investigations and audits, which in this industry recur. Finally, growth in the core business depends on the patient census — new starts net of transplants and mortality — which the company does not control, and the international and integrated care businesses are still small next to U.S. dialysis, earning $22 million and $89 million of operating income respectively in 2025.

Generated on 18 de septiembre de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on 18 de septiembre de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Fresenius Medical Care AGFMS

The other half of the US outpatient dialysis duopoly, running a comparable national network of roughly 2,600-2,800 clinics that treats the same end-stage kidney disease patients under the same Medicare and commercial payer contracts.

U.S. Renal Care, Inc.Not tracked

The third-largest US dialysis operator, with several hundred outpatient centers that compete clinic by clinic with DaVita for patients and for the nephrologists who refer them.

Satellite HealthcareNot tracked

A non-profit provider of in-center and home dialysis, strongest in California and other western states, competing for the same patients and payer contracts in those local markets.

Dialysis Clinic, Inc.Not tracked

A large non-profit dialysis chain with facilities across dozens of states, offering the same in-center and home treatment modalities to the same patient population.

Innovative Renal Care (formerly American Renal Associates)Not tracked

A privately held national operator that builds joint-venture dialysis clinics with nephrologists, directly contesting the physician partnerships and local centers that underpin DaVita's model.

Interwell HealthNot tracked

A value-based kidney care company that takes risk on chronic kidney disease populations for health plans, competing with DaVita's Integrated Kidney Care business for the same payer contracts.

Balance y Liquidez

Ingresos

$14.01B

Últimos 12 meses (hasta 30/6/2026)

Beneficio Neto

$847M

Últimos 12 meses (hasta 30/6/2026)

Flujo de Caja Libre

$1.31B

Patrimonio Neto Total

$-651M

Pasivo Total

$16.32B

Ratio de Liquidez

1.47

Cobertura de Intereses

3.79

Deuda/EBITDA

4.87

Beneficio Por Acción

Ingresos y Beneficio Neto

Flujo de Caja Libre

Desglose de Ingresos

Estado histórico

Márgenes en el tiempo

La deuda en el tiempo

Cuánto pesa la deuda

Cuadro de crecimiento

Crecimiento — Ingresos

Estimación de Valor Justo

Caso generalInfravalorado

Valor Justo

$282.23

Precio Actual

$174.92

Margen de Seguridad

+38.0%

Rango de Valor Justo

$183.45 - $381.01

Dispersión entre los métodos de valoración utilizados, no un intervalo de confianza calibrado estadísticamente.

Métodos de Estimación

Precio objetivo de los analistas:$219.86
Flujo de caja descontado (DCF):$509.54
Múltiplo sobre beneficios (P/E):$142.35
Fórmula de crecimiento de Graham:$282.89
Valor de la capacidad de generar beneficios (EPV):$268.75
P/B justificado:$39.01
Descuento de dividendos (Gordon):Datos insuficientes para calcularlo
P/FFO, fondos de operaciones:$364.90
Beneficios de mitad de ciclo:$640.97
Múltiplo sobre ingresos:$835.15
Consenso de Analistas:Comprar (7B / 5H / 1S)
Última Sorpresa de Resultados:+2.52%

Métricas de Valoración

Ratio P/E

14.40

ROE

-114.7%

Ratio P/B

-

P/FCF

6.93

Margen Bruto

-

ROIC

11.3%

Radar de Rentabilidad

Creación de Valor (Ventaja Competitiva)

ROIC

11.3%

WACC

6.1%

ROIC − WACC

+5.3 pp

El ROIC supera el coste del capital: la empresa está creando valor para los accionistas.

Criterios de Análisis Fundamental

Superado (17)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 5.83%
  • Price CAGR 10.96%
  • ROIC 11.3%
  • P/FCF 6.93
  • Operating Margin 15.2%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 181.2%
  • Analyst Consensus 54% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.46
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.59
  • Share Dilution -13.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Fallido (6)

  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 3.4%
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.4%
  • Net Margin Trend 6.0% vs 6.4%

No disponible (5)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Señales mixtas: algunas áreas requieren atención

score
criteria

Calidad de los Beneficios

2.59

Alta calidad: beneficios respaldados por efectivo

Dilución de Acciones

-13.0%

Recomprando acciones. Favorable para el accionista

Participaciones institucionales

Gobernanza

Equipo Directivo

NombreCargoEdad
Mr. Javier J. RodriguezCEO & Executive Director54
Mr. Joel AckermanCFO & Treasurer60
Ms. Kathleen Alyce WatersChief Legal & Public Affairs Officer57
Mr. James O. HeartyChief Compliance Officer56
Mr. David P. MaughanChief Operating Officer of DaVita Kidney Care48
Mr. Christopher Michael Berry CPAGroup VP & Chief Accounting Officer50
Nic EliasonGroup Vice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Stephanie HendricksonChief People Officer-
Mr. Misha PalecekChief Transformation Officer of U.S. Kidney Care Business-
Dr. Jeffrey Allen GiullianChief Medical Officer of Kidney Care-

Riesgo de Auditoría

8

Riesgo del Consejo

2

Riesgo de Compensación

5

Riesgo de Derechos del Accionista

3

Parte 2 · El precio y el momento de entrar

Esta parte no sirve para saber si la empresa vale: sirve para elegir cuándo comprarla, una vez que los fundamentales te han convencido. Dentro: análisis técnico, potencial, caídas históricas, exposición gamma.

Documentos

  • Informe anual (10-K)

    Un resumen anual del negocio, los resultados financieros y los riesgos de la empresa.

    Presentado el 2026-02-11

    Ver documento
  • Informe trimestral (10-Q)

    Una actualización del desempeño financiero de los últimos tres meses.

    Presentado el 2026-08-04

    Ver documento
  • Informe de hecho relevante (8-K)

    Un aviso sobre un hecho relevante, como un cambio de dirección o un anuncio importante.

    Presentado el 2026-08-04

    Ver documento

via SEC EDGAR

Historial de Resultados

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

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