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Summerset Group Holdings Limited (SMGRF)

Infravalorada
HealthcareMedical Care FacilitiesNew Zealand

Fundamental

48

Precio

$7.40

Capitalización Bursátil

$1.85B

Parte 1 · Cuánto vale la empresa

Resumen

Summerset builds and operates retirement villages in New Zealand and Australia, where it sells residents the right to occupy a unit for life in exchange for an upfront payment, then provides care services — from independent living to full nursing care — as residents age. It is both a developer, building new villages on land it buys, and a long-term operator running dining, care and community services for thousands of residents already living in its villages.

Cómo genera ingresos

Revenue is a mix of several streams rather than a single product sale: weekly fees residents pay for care and village services, a share of the gain when a departing resident's occupation right is resold to a new one, and government subsidies for eligible aged-care residents that make up a majority of the care revenue. Because these streams are recognized differently — some upfront, some accrued over years of occupancy — reported revenue does not map cleanly onto new-unit sales in any given year.

Qué impulsa la demanda

Defensivo

Demand is driven by an aging population choosing to move into a retirement village, a decision that is only loosely tied to the economic cycle since it follows health and life-stage needs more than discretionary spending power. It is not fully immune to downturns, though, since a resident's ability to buy an occupation right often depends on selling their existing home first.

Los argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that an aging population in New Zealand and Australia gives Summerset a decades-long demand tailwind, that owning the land bank lets it capture development margin most competitors cannot, and that record deliveries and underlying profit in fiscal 2025 show the model scaling as intended.

Los argumentos en contra

Sellers fear that resales gains depend on house-price and property-market conditions outside the company's control, that a housing downturn could slow the pace at which prospective residents can sell their own homes to buy in, and that a large land and development bank ties up capital for years before it converts into cash.

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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Balance y Liquidez

Ingresos

$366M

Últimos 12 meses hasta el último trimestre publicado — estimación a partir de métricas por acción

Beneficio Neto

$264M

Últimos 12 meses hasta el último trimestre publicado — estimación a partir de métricas por acción

Flujo de Caja Libre

$-277M

Patrimonio Neto Total

$3.52B

Pasivo Total

$2.09B

Ratio de Liquidez

0.69

Cobertura de Intereses

-

Deuda/EBITDA

47.35

Beneficio Por Acción

Ingresos y Beneficio Neto

Flujo de Caja Libre

Desglose de Ingresos

Estado histórico

Márgenes en el tiempo

La deuda en el tiempo

Cuánto pesa la deuda

Cuadro de crecimiento

Crecimiento — Ingresos

Estimación de Valor Justo

Caso generalInfravalorado

Valor Justo

$12.05

Precio Actual

$7.40

Margen de Seguridad

+38.6%

Rango de Valor Justo

$9.28 - $14.82

Dispersión entre los métodos de valoración utilizados, no un intervalo de confianza calibrado estadísticamente.

Métodos de Estimación

Precio objetivo de los analistas:$12.76
Flujo de caja descontado (DCF):$17.36
Múltiplo sobre beneficios (P/E):$9.64
Fórmula de crecimiento de Graham:$12.17
Valor de la capacidad de generar beneficios (EPV):$9.16
P/B justificado:$9.65
Descuento de dividendos (Gordon):$2.49
P/FFO, fondos de operaciones:Datos insuficientes para calcularlo
Beneficios de mitad de ciclo:Datos insuficientes para calcularlo
Múltiplo sobre ingresos:$5.89
Consenso de Analistas:Comprar (8B / 2H / 0S)

Métricas de Valoración

Ratio P/E

6.74

ROE

10.2%

Ratio P/B

0.53

P/FCF

-

Margen Bruto

90.0%

ROIC

0.3%

Radar de Rentabilidad

Creación de Valor (Ventaja Competitiva)

ROIC

0.3%

WACC

4.6%

ROIC − WACC

-4.3 pp

El ROIC está por debajo del coste del capital: la empresa destruye valor por cada dólar invertido.

Criterios de Análisis Fundamental

Superado (9)

  • Gross Margin 90.0%
  • P/B Ratio 0.53
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 75.0%
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 8.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 16.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 80% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.31

Fallido (9)

  • Price CAGR 4.50%
  • ROIC 0.3%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • PEG Ratio 5.72
  • Net Margin Trend 71.8% vs 106.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

No disponible (9)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Earnings Surprise (Finnhub)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-Score

2/9

Preocupaciones financieras graves

score
criteria

Calidad de los Beneficios

2.31

Alta calidad: beneficios respaldados por efectivo

Dilución de Acciones

-

Recomprando acciones. Favorable para el accionista

Participaciones institucionales

No hay declaraciones institucionales para esta empresa.

Gobernanza

Equipo Directivo

NombreCargoEdad
Mr. Scott Grady Scoullar BCA, C.A., FCPAChief Executive Officer-
Mr. John O'SullivanFounder-
Ms. Margaret WarringtonChief Financial Officer-
Ms. Robyn HeymanHead of Legal & Company Secretary-
Mr. David MartinChief Sales & Marketing Transformation Lead-
Ms. Chris Lokum BMSChief People Officer-
Mr. Dean Tallentire B.Sc.Chief Construction Officer of NZ-
Ms. Eleanor Young B.Sc.Chief Operating Officer of NZ-
Mr. Aaron Smail B.E., BBSChief Development Officer of NZ-
Mr. Stewart ScottChief Operating Officer of Australia-

Riesgo de Auditoría

4

Riesgo del Consejo

4

Riesgo de Compensación

6

Riesgo de Derechos del Accionista

7

Parte 2 · El precio y el momento de entrar

Esta parte no sirve para saber si la empresa vale: sirve para elegir cuándo comprarla, una vez que los fundamentales te han convencido. Dentro: análisis técnico, potencial, caídas históricas, exposición gamma.

Latest News

Recent headlines for SMGRF, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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