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Universal Music Group N.V. (UMGNF)

Sobrevalorada
Communication ServicesEntertainmentNetherlands

Fundamental

55

Precio

$14.13

Capitalización Bursátil

$26.04B

Parte 1 · Cuánto vale la empresa

Resumen

Universal Music Group signs recording artists and songwriters, funds and markets their music, and owns the resulting recordings and song rights, collecting money whenever that music is streamed, broadcast, licensed for film and advertising, or sold as a physical record. It is the largest of the three major music companies (alongside Sony Music and Warner Music), with a roster of labels spanning pop, hip-hop, country and classical, and it also runs a publishing arm that owns rights to the songs themselves, separate from the recordings.

Cómo genera ingresos

Most revenue now comes from digital streaming subscriptions and ad-supported platforms, which pay UMG a share of subscriber fees or advertising revenue based on how often its music is played, plus fixed licensing payments negotiated directly with a handful of large platforms. A smaller share still comes from physical album sales, and Music Publishing earns separately whenever a song UMG controls the rights to is performed, synced to video or covered by another artist, regardless of who recorded it.

Ingresos por segmento

Recorded Music75.6%

Revenue from streaming, physical sales and licensing of the recordings UMG owns or distributes for its signed artists.

Music Publishing17.6%

Royalties earned whenever a song UMG controls the rights to is performed, streamed, synced to video or covered by another artist.

Merchandising and other6.8%

Artist merchandise and other smaller revenue lines not broken out separately.

Qué impulsa la demanda

Defensivo

Music listening is a habitual, low-cost activity that holds up well across the economic cycle, and most revenue now comes from recurring subscriptions rather than discretionary purchases. Growth instead depends on how fast streaming subscriptions and pricing keep expanding worldwide, and on the terms UMG can negotiate with a small number of dominant streaming platforms it depends on for distribution.

Riesgos clave

  • Streaming growth may slow — The company names the failure of streaming and subscription adoption or revenue to grow, or to grow as rapidly as anticipated, as a key risk to its results.
  • Dependence on a few digital platforms — UMG relies on a small number of large digital service providers for distribution; changes those platforms make to subscription pricing, royalty structures or recommendation algorithms can directly affect UMG's revenue growth.
  • Generative AI and copyright uncertainty — The company faces uncertainty from evolving copyright, data privacy and artificial intelligence regulation in the US and Europe, as generative AI raises new questions about how music rights are used and compensated.
  • Competition to sign and retain artists — The company names its ability to compete successfully to identify, attract, sign and retain successful recording artists and songwriters as a material risk, since the roster of talent is the source of everything else it sells.

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

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Balance y Liquidez

Ingresos

$18.37B

Últimos 12 meses hasta el último trimestre publicado — estimación a partir de métricas por acción

Beneficio Neto

$315M

Últimos 12 meses hasta el último trimestre publicado — estimación a partir de métricas por acción

Flujo de Caja Libre

$1.79B

Patrimonio Neto Total

$3.60B

Pasivo Total

$5.56B

Ratio de Liquidez

0.61

Cobertura de Intereses

-

Deuda/EBITDA

2.52

Beneficio Por Acción

Ingresos y Beneficio Neto

Flujo de Caja Libre

Desglose de Ingresos

Estado histórico

Márgenes en el tiempo

La deuda en el tiempo

Cuánto pesa la deuda

Cuadro de crecimiento

Crecimiento — Ingresos

Estimación de Valor Justo

Caso generalSobrevalorado

Valor Justo

$11.16

Precio Actual

$14.13

Margen de Seguridad

-26.6%

Rango de Valor Justo

$7.25 - $15.07

Dispersión entre los métodos de valoración utilizados, no un intervalo de confianza calibrado estadísticamente.

Métodos de Estimación

Precio objetivo de los analistas:$21.92
Flujo de caja descontado (DCF):$11.60
Múltiplo sobre beneficios (P/E):$2.57
Fórmula de crecimiento de Graham:$1.95
Valor de la capacidad de generar beneficios (EPV):$16.69
P/B justificado:$1.51
Descuento de dividendos (Gordon):$6.52
P/FFO, fondos de operaciones:Datos insuficientes para calcularlo
Beneficios de mitad de ciclo:Datos insuficientes para calcularlo
Múltiplo sobre ingresos:$20.99
Consenso de Analistas:Comprar (16B / 8H / 4S)
Última Sorpresa de Resultados:+10.28%

Métricas de Valoración

Ratio P/E

81.47

ROE

7.7%

Ratio P/B

7.13

P/FCF

14.53

Margen Bruto

28.6%

ROIC

16.5%

Radar de Rentabilidad

Creación de Valor (Ventaja Competitiva)

ROIC

16.5%

WACC

9.2%

ROIC − WACC

+7.3 pp

El ROIC supera el coste del capital: la empresa está creando valor para los accionistas.

Criterios de Análisis Fundamental

Superado (12)

  • ROIC 16.5%
  • P/FCF 14.53
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 22.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 7.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 11.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 57% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 8.1%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.08

Fallido (9)

  • Price CAGR -7.68%
  • Gross Margin 28.6%
  • P/B Ratio 7.13
  • Current Ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • PEG Ratio 4.26
  • Net Margin Trend 12.3% vs 17.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

No disponible (6)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-Score

2/9

Preocupaciones financieras graves

score
criteria

Calidad de los Beneficios

1.08

Alta calidad: beneficios respaldados por efectivo

Dilución de Acciones

-

Recomprando acciones. Favorable para el accionista

Participaciones institucionales

No hay declaraciones institucionales para esta empresa.

Gobernanza

Equipo Directivo

NombreCargoEdad
Sir Lucian Grainge CBEChairman & CEO65
Mr. Vincent VallejoDeputy CEO of Corporate & Executive Director64
Mr. Matthew D. EllisChief Financial Officer54
Mr. Boyd MuirExecutive VP & COO65
Mr. Will TanousExecutive VP & Chief Administrative Officer56
Mr. Jeffrey Harleston J.D.General Counsel and Executive VP of Business & Legal Affairs63
Mr. Eric HutchersonExecutive VP and Chief People & Inclusion Officer55
Mr. Michael NashExecutive VP & Chief Digital Officer68
Ms. Tseyin FooPresident of Global Supply Chain-
Mr. Philippe FlageulExecutive VP & Controller60

Riesgo de Auditoría

4

Riesgo del Consejo

1

Riesgo de Compensación

10

Riesgo de Derechos del Accionista

4

Parte 2 · El precio y el momento de entrar

Esta parte no sirve para saber si la empresa vale: sirve para elegir cuándo comprarla, una vez que los fundamentales te han convencido. Dentro: análisis técnico, potencial, caídas históricas, exposición gamma.

Latest News

Recent headlines for UMGNF, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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