Universal Music Group N.V. (UMGNF)
SobrevaloradaFundamental
55
Precio
$14.13
Capitalización Bursátil
$26.04B
Parte 1 · Cuánto vale la empresa
Resumen
Universal Music Group signs recording artists and songwriters, funds and markets their music, and owns the resulting recordings and song rights, collecting money whenever that music is streamed, broadcast, licensed for film and advertising, or sold as a physical record. It is the largest of the three major music companies (alongside Sony Music and Warner Music), with a roster of labels spanning pop, hip-hop, country and classical, and it also runs a publishing arm that owns rights to the songs themselves, separate from the recordings.
Cómo genera ingresos
Most revenue now comes from digital streaming subscriptions and ad-supported platforms, which pay UMG a share of subscriber fees or advertising revenue based on how often its music is played, plus fixed licensing payments negotiated directly with a handful of large platforms. A smaller share still comes from physical album sales, and Music Publishing earns separately whenever a song UMG controls the rights to is performed, synced to video or covered by another artist, regardless of who recorded it.
Ingresos por segmento
Revenue from streaming, physical sales and licensing of the recordings UMG owns or distributes for its signed artists.
Royalties earned whenever a song UMG controls the rights to is performed, streamed, synced to video or covered by another artist.
Artist merchandise and other smaller revenue lines not broken out separately.
Qué impulsa la demanda
DefensivoMusic listening is a habitual, low-cost activity that holds up well across the economic cycle, and most revenue now comes from recurring subscriptions rather than discretionary purchases. Growth instead depends on how fast streaming subscriptions and pricing keep expanding worldwide, and on the terms UMG can negotiate with a small number of dominant streaming platforms it depends on for distribution.
Riesgos clave
- Streaming growth may slow — The company names the failure of streaming and subscription adoption or revenue to grow, or to grow as rapidly as anticipated, as a key risk to its results.
- Dependence on a few digital platforms — UMG relies on a small number of large digital service providers for distribution; changes those platforms make to subscription pricing, royalty structures or recommendation algorithms can directly affect UMG's revenue growth.
- Generative AI and copyright uncertainty — The company faces uncertainty from evolving copyright, data privacy and artificial intelligence regulation in the US and Europe, as generative AI raises new questions about how music rights are used and compensated.
- Competition to sign and retain artists — The company names its ability to compete successfully to identify, attract, sign and retain successful recording artists and songwriters as a material risk, since the roster of talent is the source of everything else it sells.
Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance y Liquidez
Ingresos
$18.37B
Últimos 12 meses hasta el último trimestre publicado — estimación a partir de métricas por acción
Beneficio Neto
$315M
Últimos 12 meses hasta el último trimestre publicado — estimación a partir de métricas por acción
Flujo de Caja Libre
$1.79B
Patrimonio Neto Total
$3.60B
Pasivo Total
$5.56B
Ratio de Liquidez
0.61
Cobertura de Intereses
-
Deuda/EBITDA
2.52
Beneficio Por Acción
Ingresos y Beneficio Neto
Flujo de Caja Libre
Desglose de Ingresos
Estado histórico
Márgenes en el tiempo
La deuda en el tiempo
Cuánto pesa la deuda
Cuadro de crecimiento
Crecimiento — Ingresos
Estimación de Valor Justo
Valor Justo
$11.16
Precio Actual
$14.13
Margen de Seguridad
-26.6%
Rango de Valor Justo
$7.25 - $15.07
Dispersión entre los métodos de valoración utilizados, no un intervalo de confianza calibrado estadísticamente.
Métodos de Estimación
Métricas de Valoración
Ratio P/E
81.47
ROE
7.7%
Ratio P/B
7.13
P/FCF
14.53
Margen Bruto
28.6%
ROIC
16.5%
Radar de Rentabilidad
Creación de Valor (Ventaja Competitiva)
ROIC
16.5%
WACC
9.2%
ROIC − WACC
+7.3 pp
El ROIC supera el coste del capital: la empresa está creando valor para los accionistas.
Criterios de Análisis Fundamental
Superado (12)
- ROIC 16.5%
- P/FCF 14.53
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 22.9%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Debt/EBITDA
- ROE 7.9%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 11.0%
- Analyst Consensus 57% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 8.1%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.08
Fallido (9)
- Price CAGR -7.68%
- Gross Margin 28.6%
- P/B Ratio 7.13
- Current Ratio
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
- PEG Ratio 4.26
- Net Margin Trend 12.3% vs 17.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
No disponible (6)
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-Score
Preocupaciones financieras graves
Calidad de los Beneficios
Alta calidad: beneficios respaldados por efectivo
Dilución de Acciones
Recomprando acciones. Favorable para el accionista
Participaciones institucionales
No hay declaraciones institucionales para esta empresa.
Gobernanza
Equipo Directivo
| Nombre | Cargo | Edad |
|---|---|---|
| Sir Lucian Grainge CBE | Chairman & CEO | 65 |
| Mr. Vincent Vallejo | Deputy CEO of Corporate & Executive Director | 64 |
| Mr. Matthew D. Ellis | Chief Financial Officer | 54 |
| Mr. Boyd Muir | Executive VP & COO | 65 |
| Mr. Will Tanous | Executive VP & Chief Administrative Officer | 56 |
| Mr. Jeffrey Harleston J.D. | General Counsel and Executive VP of Business & Legal Affairs | 63 |
| Mr. Eric Hutcherson | Executive VP and Chief People & Inclusion Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Michael Nash | Executive VP & Chief Digital Officer | 68 |
| Ms. Tseyin Foo | President of Global Supply Chain | - |
| Mr. Philippe Flageul | Executive VP & Controller | 60 |
Riesgo de Auditoría
4
Riesgo del Consejo
1
Riesgo de Compensación
10
Riesgo de Derechos del Accionista
4
Parte 2 · El precio y el momento de entrar
Esta parte no sirve para saber si la empresa vale: sirve para elegir cuándo comprarla, una vez que los fundamentales te han convencido. Dentro: análisis técnico, potencial, caídas históricas, exposición gamma.
Latest News
Recent headlines for UMGNF, sourced from Markets Gazette.