Confirmation bias

"Once you put a scene like that on a screen, that's what tens of millions of people will believe happened. I think the odds of that being an accurate rendition of history are extraordinarily low, but twenty years from now, more people may believe that version than any other version of the events."

Once you put a scene like that on a screen, that's what tens of millions of people will believe happened. I think the odds of that being an accurate rendition of history are extraordinarily low, but twenty years from now, more people may believe that version than any other version of the events.

Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out only the information that confirms what you already believe, and to dismiss what challenges it.

The moment you buy a stock, your mind stops being neutral: you start noticing the positive news about that company, you join forums and communities that share your view, and you dismiss every negative signal as "noise" or "people who don't get it". It isn't dishonesty - it's an automatic mechanism that kicks in before you even notice.

In value investing this bias is especially dangerous: you've done the analysis, you've convinced yourself of a fair value, and the more time and attention you've put into the thesis, the more emotionally costly it becomes to question it. The risk is staying attached to a thesis the facts have already disproven.

The antidote isn't to stop holding convictions, but to actively seek their strongest rebuttal: before every important decision, ask what the best argument against your thesis would be, and go look for whoever is making it, instead of waiting for it to find you.