CME Group Inc. (CME)
SubavaliadaFundamental
76
Preço
$264.75
Capitalização de Mercado
$96.69B
Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa
Visão Geral
CME Group runs the exchanges where traders buy and sell standardized futures and options contracts on interest rates, stock indexes, currencies, energy, agricultural commodities and metals — agreements to buy or sell something at a set price on a future date. It does not take positions itself: it provides the marketplace, matches buyers with sellers, and, through its clearing house, guarantees that both sides of every trade get paid even if one of them defaults.
Como gera receita
Most revenue comes from a small fee charged on every contract traded and cleared, so revenue rises with trading volume rather than with the direction prices move — a volatile market that makes people trade more is good for CME even if prices are falling. A second stream comes from selling the market data CME's exchanges generate to traders, banks and data vendors, plus investment income earned on the cash collateral customers post to guarantee their trades.
Vantagem competitiva
Efeitos de rede · AmplaA futures contract is only useful if enough other traders use the identical contract, because that shared pool of buyers and sellers lets anyone enter or exit a position quickly at a fair price. Once a contract accumulates that liquidity at CME, a rival exchange offering the same contract cannot easily attract traders away — a network effect that has kept CME's benchmark contracts dominant for decades.
O que impulsiona a procura
Moderadamente cíclicoTrading volume, and so revenue, rises when markets are volatile and traders need to hedge or speculate on fast-moving prices, and can soften in calm, low-volatility periods regardless of the broader economic cycle. Interest rate policy is a particularly large swing factor, since CME's interest rate contracts are its single biggest product line and trading in them picks up whenever rate expectations are in flux.
Principais riscos
- Dependence on trading volume and volatility — Revenue depends on how much trading happens on CME's exchanges; a sustained period of low volatility or reduced trading activity directly reduces transaction fee revenue, the largest part of the business.
- Competition from other exchanges and clearing venues — Rival exchanges, and the possibility of a competing venue attracting enough liquidity in one of CME's core contracts, could draw trading volume away from CME's markets over time.
- Regulatory risk — CME's exchanges and clearing house operate under close regulatory oversight in the US and abroad; a change in rules on trading, clearing or capital requirements could raise costs or restrict how the business operates.
- Concentration in interest rate products — A large share of CME's revenue comes from interest rate futures and options; a structural shift in these products, or in how rate risk is hedged, would affect results more than the diversification across asset classes might suggest.
Os argumentos a favor
Buyers argue that the liquidity concentrated in CME's benchmark futures contracts is nearly impossible for a new exchange to replicate, that rising market volatility from any source tends to increase trading volume and revenue, and that a fee-per-contract model scales with almost no added cost as volume grows.
Os argumentos contra
Sellers fear that a sustained calm market reduces the trading volume CME's revenue depends on, that regulators could reshape how derivatives trading and clearing work in ways CME cannot control, and that a large share of results still rests on interest rate products whose trading patterns could shift structurally.
Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 18 de setembro de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
CME names ICE first among its rivals: both run futures and options exchanges plus their own clearing houses, competing head-on in energy, interest-rate and equity-index contracts for the same institutional traders.
Cboe's index options and volatility franchise (SPX, VIX), together with Cboe Clear, competes for the same US derivatives order flow and clearing fees that CME earns on its equity-index and futures complex.
Through Eurex, Deutsche Börse is the main venue for euro-denominated interest-rate and equity-index futures and offers clearing that competes for the global banks and asset managers who also trade CME's rate complex.
HKEX runs Asian equity-index, currency and commodity derivatives (including the LME metals franchise) with its own clearing houses, competing with CME for Asian-hours volume and for metals and FX hedgers.
Euronext operates European equity-index and commodity derivatives markets and its own clearing house, competing with CME for European listed-derivatives trading and clearing revenue.
Backed by BGC Group and a consortium of banks, FMX targets exactly CME's core franchise — US Treasury and SOFR interest-rate futures — offering LCH clearing to pull that liquidity away.
Balanço & Liquidez
Receita
$6.77B
Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)
Resultado Líquido
$4.29B
Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)
Fluxo de Caixa Livre
$4.19B
Capital Próprio Total
$28.73B
Passivo Total
$169.70B
Rácio de Liquidez
1.02
Cobertura de Juros
-
Dívida/EBITDA
0.89
Resultados Por Ação
Receita & Resultado Líquido
Fluxo de Caixa Livre
Decomposição dos Resultados
Demonstração histórica
Margens ao longo do tempo
A dívida ao longo do tempo
Quanto pesa a dívida
Grelha do crescimento
Crescimento — Receitas
Estimativa de Valor Justo
Valor Justo
$777.02
Preço Atual
$264.75
Margem de Segurança
+65.9%
Intervalo de Valor Justo
$505.06 - $1048.97
Dispersão entre os métodos de avaliação utilizados, não um intervalo de confiança calibrado estatisticamente.
Métodos de Estimativa
Métricas de Avaliação
Rácio P/E
22.22
ROE
14.2%
Rácio P/B
0.66
P/FCF
4.14
Margem Bruta
-
ROIC
9.7%
Radar de Rentabilidade
Criação de Valor (Vantagem Competitiva)
ROIC
9.7%
WACC
7.7%
ROIC − WACC
+2.0 pp
O ROIC supera o custo do capital — a empresa está a criar valor para os acionistas.
Critérios de Análise Fundamental
Aprovado (20)
- Price CAGR 8.91%
- ROIC 9.7%
- P/FCF 4.14
- P/B Ratio 0.66
- Operating Margin 65.1%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- ROE 15.6%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 18.7%
- Analyst Consensus 52% Buy
- PEG Ratio 1.62
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.01
- Share Dilution 0.1%
- Net Margin Trend 63.3% vs 58.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Reprovado (5)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -1.60%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Earnings Surprise avg 0.3%
Indisponível (3)
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-Score
Sinais mistos: algumas áreas requerem atenção
Qualidade dos Resultados
Alta qualidade: resultados respaldados por caixa
Diluição de Ações
Número de ações estável
Participações institucionais
Governação
Equipa Executiva
| Nome | Cargo | Idade |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Terrence A. Duffy | Chairman & CEO | 67 |
| Ms. Lynne C. Fitzpatrick | Senior MD, President & CFO | 47 |
| Mr. Sunil Cutinho | Chief Information Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Derek L. Sammann | Senior MD & Global Head of Commodities Markets | 57 |
| Ms. Julie M. Winkler | Senior MD & Chief Commercial Officer | 50 |
| Ms. Suzanne Sprague | Senior MD, Group COO & Global Head of Clearing | - |
| Mr. Jack Tobin | MD & Chief Accounting Officer | 61 |
| Adam Minick | Investor Contact | - |
| Mr. Jonathan L. Marcus J.D. | Senior MD & General Counsel | - |
| Ms. Anita Liskey | Senior Managing Director of Corporate Marketing & Communications | 60 |
Risco de Auditoria
1
Risco do Conselho
9
Risco de Remuneração
8
Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas
10
Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar
Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.
Documentos
- Ver documento
Relatório anual (10-K)
Uma visão anual do negócio, dos resultados financeiros e dos riscos da empresa.
Arquivado em 2026-02-26
- Ver documento
Relatório trimestral (10-Q)
Uma atualização sobre o desempenho financeiro dos últimos três meses.
Arquivado em 2026-07-24
- Ver documento
Relatório de fato relevante (8-K)
Um aviso sobre um fato relevante, como uma mudança na liderança ou um grande anúncio.
Arquivado em 2026-09-25
via SEC EDGAR
Histórico de Resultados
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CME, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 28d agoNEUTRALCFTC files to dismiss CME lawsuit over crypto perpetual futures
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit brought by CME Group concerning crypto perpetual futures. CFTC lawyers characterized the suit as "much ado about nothing," asserting that CME Group lacks the legal standing to bring the case and refuting its claims. This legal maneuver by the CFTC aims to halt the proceedings, suggesting the regulator believes the CME Group's arguments are unfounded. The outcome could set precedents for regulatory oversight of crypto derivatives.
- 8/21/2026NEUTRALCME CEO Spars With CFTC Chair About Prediction Market Oversight
CME Group CEO has urged the CFTC to enhance oversight of prediction markets, citing concerns about potential manipulation as these platforms rapidly expand. The call highlights a growing tension between financial regulators and innovative trading venues. While the CME, a major derivatives marketplace, benefits from robust regulatory frameworks, the rapid ascent of prediction markets presents new challenges for market integrity. Investors in CME should monitor regulatory developments closely, as increased oversight could impact the competitive landscape for derivatives and alternative trading platforms.
- 8/5/2026NEGATIVECME, FanDuel Venture Falters As Prediction Startups Race Ahead
CME Group Inc. and FanDuel are reportedly scaling back their joint venture focused on prediction markets. The initiative, aimed at competing with burgeoning prediction startups, has failed to gain significant traction. This lack of progress in a rapidly growing sector, which poses a challenge to traditional financial exchanges and sports betting operators, suggests a missed opportunity for CME. Investors may view this as a setback in their diversification efforts into alternative betting and financial products.
- 7/29/2026NEUTRALFIA CEO on Prediction Market 'Disruption,' Regulation
CME Group is set to launch single-stock futures, enabling investors to hedge or speculate on over 50 major US companies. These cash-settled contracts will offer leverage without the complexities of options, tied to the closing prices of the underlying stocks. FIA CEO Walt Lukken views the expansion of prediction markets and new products like these as beneficial for developing robust regulatory frameworks within the financial industry. The move signals an evolving landscape for derivatives and speculative trading, potentially increasing market activity and investor participation in new asset classes.
- 7/26/2026NEUTRALTraders are getting a new tool to wager on the biggest U.S. stocks
CME Group Inc. is launching single-stock futures on Monday, offering traders a new avenue to hedge or speculate on over 50 of the largest U.S. companies. This product expansion provides increased flexibility for investors seeking to manage risk or express views on individual large-cap stocks. While potentially increasing trading volume and revenue for CME, the direct impact on the underlying stocks is neutral as it provides a new derivative instrument rather than affecting the companies' fundamentals.
- 6/25/2026POSITIVECME Plans Wind Derivatives Launch for US, Europe, Australia
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is reportedly planning to launch wind derivatives contracts spanning the US, Europe, and Australia. This strategic move anticipates the increasing significance of renewable energy sources in global power generation. The introduction of these derivatives could provide crucial hedging tools for the burgeoning wind energy sector, potentially attracting more investment and stabilizing prices. For investors, this signals CME's proactive engagement with the growing green energy market, offering new avenues for speculation and risk management within the energy commodity space.
- 6/25/2026NEUTRALCME Plans to Launch Wind Derivatives for US, Europe, Australia
CME Group Inc. is reportedly planning to introduce wind derivatives contracts spanning the US, Europe, and Australia. This strategic move by the exchange operator aligns with the increasing global emphasis on renewable energy sources and their integration into power generation. While the specific details and launch timeline remain undisclosed, the initiative signals CME's proactive approach to capitalize on the growing renewable energy market. Investors will be watching for further announcements regarding contract specifications and potential market impact.
- 6/22/2026NEGATIVECME Trading Disrupted as Platform Faces ‘Disconnects’
CME Group, the world's largest derivatives exchange operator, experienced significant trading disruptions on Monday due to platform 'disconnects'. The issue, communicated to customers via email, impacted trading operations midday. While the exact duration and full extent of the disruption are yet to be fully detailed, such technical failures can lead to reduced trading volumes, potential financial losses for participants, and damage to the exchange's reputation for reliability. Investors will be monitoring the company's response and any potential impact on its financial results.
- 6/22/2026NEUTRALCME Direct Trading Platform Is Back Up After Earlier Disruptions
CME Direct, a key trading platform operated by CME Group Inc., has resumed full operations following a brief period of technical disruption on Monday. The platform experienced difficulties that impacted trading activities, according to market participants. The restoration of services is crucial for maintaining market liquidity and confidence. While the disruption was temporary, such incidents can highlight operational risks for exchanges. Investors will monitor CME's communication regarding the cause and preventative measures to ensure future stability.
via Markets Gazette