Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO)
SuperavaliadaFundamental
67
Preço
$194.79
Capitalização de Mercado
$36.83B
Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa
Visão Geral
Credo Technology designs semiconductors that move data at very high speed inside data centers — active electrical cables, optical DSPs and related chips that connect servers, switches and networking gear. Like most fabless chip designers, it owns no factories: it designs the silicon and licenses some of its underlying circuit technology, then has the chips manufactured by outside foundries, mainly TSMC. Its customers are the hyperscale cloud operators and newer AI-focused data center builders scaling out AI infrastructure.
Como gera receita
Almost all revenue comes from selling physical chips and cables, recognized when a customer takes delivery, with a small additional stream from licensing its SerDes connectivity technology to other chipmakers and from engineering services. Because each generation of data center speed (100G, 400G, now moving to 800G and beyond) requires a new qualification cycle with customers, revenue can swing sharply between quarters as large buyers ramp or pause orders for a given product generation.
Vantagem competitiva
Patentes e licenças · EstreitaCredo's chips must pass lengthy qualification testing before a hyperscaler will deploy them at scale, which favors incumbents once they are designed in. But the moat is narrow: much larger, better-funded rivals such as Broadcom and Marvell compete for the same sockets, and a customer can qualify an alternative supplier for the next product generation if Credo's technology falls behind.
O que impulsiona a procura
CíclicoDemand is driven almost entirely by how much a handful of hyperscale and AI cloud operators are spending on data center buildouts, capital budgets that can be cut or paused within a couple of quarters. The industry has a history of moving quickly between shortage and oversupply as those buildout cycles turn.
Principais riscos
- Extreme customer concentration — About 90% of fiscal 2026 revenue came from Credo's top ten customers, with two of them each above 10% individually; losing or scaling back with any one of them would materially reduce revenue.
- Single-foundry dependence — Credo used only TSMC to manufacture its wafers in fiscal 2026; any capacity shortfall, price increase or disruption at that one foundry would directly limit how much product Credo can ship.
- Much larger, better-capitalized competitors — Broadcom, Marvell and Astera Labs all compete for the same high-speed connectivity sockets, and each has far greater scale and engineering resources than Credo to out-invest it on the next product generation.
- Demand tied to hyperscaler capex cycles — Revenue depends on a small number of hyperscalers and AI-focused cloud providers continuing to expand data center capacity; any pause or slowdown in that spending would hit Credo's growth quickly.
Concentração de clientes
Os principais clientes representam 90% da receita
In fiscal 2026, Credo's top ten customers accounted for about 90% of revenue, with two individual customers each contributing at least 10%, so the loss or slowdown of just one relationship would be a significant event.
Os argumentos a favor
Buyers argue that Credo's active electrical cables and optical DSPs are becoming the standard way hyperscalers connect AI servers at ever-higher speeds, and that revenue nearly tripling in fiscal 2026 shows real design-win momentum against much larger rivals.
Os argumentos contra
Sellers worry that revenue this concentrated in a handful of customers can reverse as quickly as it built, that Broadcom and Marvell have far more resources to compete for the same sockets, and that a single-foundry dependence on TSMC leaves little room for a manufacturing disruption.
Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 18 de setembro de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Named by Credo in its 10-K as a principal competitor, Marvell sells the PAM4 optical DSPs, SerDes and retimers that Credo's Robin, Bluebird and Toucan families bid for inside the same hyperscale data-center transceivers and switch racks.
Also named in Credo's 10-K, Broadcom offers competing SerDes IP, PHYs, retimers and optical DSPs to the same hyperscale customers, and can bundle them with the switch silicon it already sells them.
The third competitor Credo names by name: Astera sells PCIe and Ethernet retimers and connectivity modules that compete directly with Credo's Toucan retimers and active electrical cables inside AI server racks.
Semtech's FiberEdge and Tri-Edge analog signal-integrity chips are pitched to the same optical-module makers as Credo's DSPs, as the lower-power alternative for 200G-per-lane links.
MaxLinear's Keystone PAM4 DSP family targets the same 400G and 800G optical modules and active cables, making it the other small challenger alongside Credo in data-center interconnect silicon.
Balanço & Liquidez
Receita
$1.59B
Últimos 12 meses (até 01/08/2026)
Resultado Líquido
$538M
Últimos 12 meses (até 01/08/2026)
Fluxo de Caixa Livre
$407M
Capital Próprio Total
$2.06B
Passivo Total
$232M
Rácio de Liquidez
7.40
Cobertura de Juros
-
Dívida/EBITDA
0.05
Resultados Por Ação
Receita & Resultado Líquido
Fluxo de Caixa Livre
Decomposição dos Resultados
Demonstração histórica
Margens ao longo do tempo
A dívida ao longo do tempo
Quanto pesa a dívida
Grelha do crescimento
Crescimento — Receitas
Estimativa de Valor Justo
Valor Justo
$138.79
Preço Atual
$194.79
Margem de Segurança
-40.4%
Intervalo de Valor Justo
$90.21 - $187.36
Dispersão entre os métodos de avaliação utilizados, não um intervalo de confiança calibrado estatisticamente.
Métodos de Estimativa
Métricas de Avaliação
Rácio P/E
68.59
ROE
22.9%
Rácio P/B
13.42
P/FCF
83.47
Margem Bruta
67.1%
ROIC
14.2%
Radar de Rentabilidade
Criação de Valor (Vantagem Competitiva)
ROIC
14.2%
WACC
18.0%
ROIC − WACC
-3.8 pp
O ROIC está abaixo do custo do capital — a empresa está a destruir valor a cada dólar investido.
Critérios de Análise Fundamental
Aprovado (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 95.36%
- ROIC 14.2%
- Gross Margin 67.1%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 31.7%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 27.2%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 86.8%
- Analyst Consensus 93% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 13.6%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.93
- Net Margin Trend 33.8% vs 20.8%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Reprovado (6)
- P/FCF 83.47
- P/B Ratio 13.42
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Share Dilution 4.6%
Indisponível (3)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Saúde financeira sólida
Qualidade dos Resultados
Moderada: alguma diferença entre lucros e caixa
Diluição de Ações
A emitir novas ações, diluindo a participação
Participações institucionais
Não há declarações institucionais para esta empresa.
Governação
Equipa Executiva
| Nome | Cargo | Idade |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. William J. Brennan | President, CEO & Chairman | 61 |
| Mr. Chi Fung Cheng | Co-founder, CTO & Director | 56 |
| Mr. Yat Tung Lam | Co-founder, COO & Director | 58 |
| Mr. Daniel Fleming | Chief Financial Officer | 58 |
| Mr. James L. Laufman | Chief Legal Officer & Secretary | 60 |
| Mr. Daniel J. O'Neil | VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer | 54 |
| Mr. David Matukaitis | VP of Corporate Development and FP&A | - |
| Mr. Phillip Ralph Kumin | Senior Vice President of Global Sales | 59 |
| Ms. Diane Vanasse | Vice President of Marketing Communications | - |
| Ms. Kimberly Sullivan Cassady | Senior Vice President of People | - |
Risco de Auditoria
3
Risco do Conselho
6
Risco de Remuneração
7
Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas
7
Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar
Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.
Documentos
- Ver documento
Relatório anual (10-K)
Uma visão anual do negócio, dos resultados financeiros e dos riscos da empresa.
Arquivado em 2026-06-15
- Ver documento
Relatório trimestral (10-Q)
Uma atualização sobre o desempenho financeiro dos últimos três meses.
Arquivado em 2026-09-02
- Ver documento
Relatório de fato relevante (8-K)
Um aviso sobre um fato relevante, como uma mudança na liderança ou um grande anúncio.
Arquivado em 2026-09-01
via SEC EDGAR
Histórico de Resultados
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CRDO, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 14d agoNEGATIVECredo Technology: azioni in calo nonostante la forte crescita dei ricavi
Credo Technology Group's stock has plummeted nearly 50% from its yearly high, hitting a low of $148, its lowest point since April 14th. This sharp decline occurred despite the company reporting strong revenue growth. The fall is attributed to broader concerns within the AI and technology sector, with related companies like Coherent, Lumentum, CoreWeave, and Nebius also experiencing significant drops of over 30%. Investors are reacting to sector-wide anxieties, overshadowing Credo's individual performance metrics and signaling a bearish sentiment for the stock.
- 29d agoNEGATIVELe azioni di Credo Technology sono scese dopo gli utili: quanto possono ancora scendere?
Credo Technology Group's stock experienced a significant decline, falling over 9% in pre-market trading and reaching its lowest point since July 30th. The stock is now down nearly 40% from its year-to-date high, trading at $192 from a peak of $308.30. This sharp drop occurred despite the company reporting encouraging financial results and experiencing strong demand for its high-speed connectivity chips and cables. Investors appear to be reacting negatively to the stock's price action, pushing it deeper into bear market territory.
- 8/31/2026NEGATIVEAzioni Credo Technology: vendite insider e nervosismo delle opzioni prima degli utili
Credo Technology Group's stock has entered a bear market, plummeting over 24% from its yearly high and trading at $23.20. This significant decline precedes the company's upcoming financial results. The stock's performance mirrors broader AI sector trends, with even established players like Micron and Nvidia experiencing pullbacks. Adding to investor concerns, insider selling has been observed, with Barchart data indicating continued divestments. This combination of price weakness and insider activity suggests potential headwinds for CRDO ahead of its earnings report.
- 6/1/2026NEUTRALCredo Technology Group Q4 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript
Credo Technology Group's Q4 2026 earnings call transcript has been released. While the transcript provides a detailed overview of the company's performance and future outlook, it does not contain specific financial results or forward-looking guidance that would indicate a clear positive or negative market movement. Investors should review the transcript for qualitative insights into the company's strategic direction, operational achievements, and management commentary on market conditions and competitive landscape.
- 6/1/2026NEGATIVECredo Technology Group Stock Dives Despite Q4 Earnings Beat
Credo Technology Group's stock experienced a significant decline despite reporting a Q4 earnings beat for fiscal year 2026. The company announced its financial results after market close on Monday, June 1st, 2026. While specific figures for the earnings beat were not detailed in the provided snippet, the market's negative reaction suggests that other factors, such as forward guidance, revenue outlook, or broader market sentiment, overshadowed the positive earnings surprise. Investors will be closely scrutinizing the full earnings report for potential headwinds that led to the stock's dive.
- 6/1/2026NEUTRALCredo Technology to Report Fourth Quarter Results; These Most Accurate Analysts Maintain Ratings Ahead Of Earnings Call
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO) is set to announce its Q4 and full-year 2026 results on June 1. Analysts forecast Q4 EPS of $0.79 on revenue of $432.05 million, and full-year EPS of $2.40 on revenue of $1.33 billion. The company recently acquired DustPhotonics for $750 million. CRDO's stock closed Friday at $236.03, up 6.15%. Leading analysts from Goldman Sachs, Rosenblatt, and Needham have maintained 'Buy' or 'Neutral' ratings, with price targets between $170 and $220, indicating a mixed but generally stable outlook ahead of the earnings call.
- 4/20/2026POSITIVECredo Technology Shares Climb 6% After Key Trading Signal
Credo Technology Group Holding Limited (CRDO) shares experienced a significant upward movement, climbing 6% following the activation of a key trading signal. The stock reached a price of $164.56 before the surge. This technical indicator suggests a potential bullish trend for CRDO, attracting investor interest and driving up its market value. The positive price action indicates strong momentum and could signal further gains ahead for the semiconductor solutions provider.
- 4/14/2026POSITIVECredo’s stock surges. Here’s why its new acquisition ‘makes perfect sense.’
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd's stock experienced a significant surge following the announcement of its acquisition of silicon photonics technology. This strategic move is expected to enhance the company's supply chain efficiency and improve its cost structure, according to industry analysts. The integration of this advanced technology is seen as a key driver for future growth and profitability, positioning Credo favorably within the competitive semiconductor market. Investors are likely to view this acquisition as a positive step towards strengthening Credo's market position and long-term value.
- 4/13/2026POSITIVECredo’s stock has had a rough year. Here’s why one analyst thinks now is the time to buy it.
Credo Technology's stock has faced headwinds this year due to market debate on copper vs. optical connectivity for AI infrastructure. However, an analyst views this concern as a "significant disconnect" from reality, suggesting a potential undervaluation. The company's focus on high-speed connectivity solutions for data centers and AI applications remains a key growth driver. Investors may find this an opportune moment to consider the stock, anticipating a re-evaluation of its market position as the AI build-out progresses and the company's technological advantages become clearer.
- 3/13/2026POSITIVECredo Tech (CRDO) Has 1 Problem. Here's Why I'm Buying Anyway.
Despite surface-level risks, Credo Technology (CRDO) is positioned as a critical infrastructure provider for the burgeoning AI sector. The company's technological edge in high-speed connectivity solutions for data centers and AI accelerators is highlighted as a key differentiator. While specific financial figures or market share data are not detailed, the narrative suggests that CRDO's innovation in this rapidly expanding market could outweigh potential concerns. Investors are advised to consider CRDO's strategic importance in enabling AI advancements as a primary driver for potential future growth.
via Markets Gazette