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Carvana Co (CVNA)

Valor Justo
Consumer CyclicalAuto & Truck DealershipsUnited States

Fundamental

75

Preço

$62.54

Capitalização de Mercado

$67.03B

Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa

Visão Geral

Carvana Co. is a US e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. A customer browses Carvana's inventory online, finances the car, arranges a trade-in and completes the purchase on the website or app, then has the vehicle delivered to their door or picks it up from one of Carvana's vending machines. The company is vertically integrated: it sources cars from customer trade-ins, auctions and dealers, inspects and reconditions them in its own facilities, photographs them for the 360-degree online display, and moves them on its own logistics fleet. The 2024 acquisition of the ADESA US physical auction network added wholesale auction sites that double as reconditioning and last-mile hubs. Carvana sold 596,641 retail vehicles in 2025, up 43% year over year, on $20.3 billion of revenue, and reports as a single operating and reportable segment.

Como gera receita

Most of the revenue is simply the price of the used cars sold to consumers: Carvana buys a vehicle, reconditions it and books the full retail price as revenue, so the top line is large and the margin per car is thin. A second stream is wholesale — cars that do not meet retail standards, plus vehicles and auction fees from the ADESA marketplace, sold to dealers. The third and most profitable stream is 'other': Carvana originates the customer's auto loan and then sells those finance receivables to banks and securitisation investors, booking the gain, and earns commissions on vehicle service contracts, GAP waiver coverage and auto insurance sold alongside the car. That third bucket is only about 8% of revenue but carries almost no vehicle cost, so it contributes a disproportionate share of gross profit.

Receita por segmento

Retail vehicle sales71.4%

Used cars sold directly to consumers through the website and app, delivered to the customer or picked up at a vending machine. $14.5 billion in 2025 on 596,641 retail units.

Wholesale sales and revenues20.2%

Vehicles that do not meet Carvana's retail standards, sold to dealers and other wholesale buyers, plus vehicle sales and auction fees from the ADESA physical auction marketplace. $4.1 billion in 2025.

Other sales and revenues8.4%

Mainly gains on the sale of the auto loans Carvana originates for its own buyers, plus commissions on complementary products such as vehicle service contracts, GAP waiver coverage and auto insurance. $1.7 billion in 2025.

Vantagem competitiva

Escala · Estreita

Carvana's advantage is operational scale that a smaller online rival would struggle to rebuild: inspection and reconditioning centres, a proprietary transport fleet, a national inventory visible to every buyer, and — since the ADESA deal — auction sites that shorten the distance between a trade-in and the customer who buys it. Selling more cars through the same fixed network lowers the cost per unit, which is how gross profit per vehicle has widened. But used cars are a commodity, the customer buys once every several years so habit counts for little, and CarMax, franchise dealer groups and other online sellers offer the same cars. The advantage rests on cost per unit rather than on anything that stops a customer from shopping elsewhere.

O que impulsiona a procura

Cíclico

A used car is a large discretionary purchase that most households can postpone for a year or two, so volumes follow employment, consumer confidence and above all the cost and availability of credit: a big share of Carvana's buyers finance the vehicle, and higher rates raise the monthly payment that decides the sale. Two more cycles sit on top. Used-car prices themselves swing — the 2021-2022 spike and the subsequent fall moved the value of Carvana's inventory and the industry's economics. And the supply of good used cars lags new-car sales by roughly three years, so the weak production years of the pandemic thin out the pool of off-lease vehicles later. Within the year, the business is seasonal: the company lists seasonal fluctuations among its risk factors, with the tax-refund window in the first part of the year the strongest period for used-car retail.

Principais riscos

  • Dependence on selling the loans it originates — The company states it depends on selling its automotive finance receivables, and on access to capital markets on acceptable terms, to fund the business. If securitisation demand weakens or pricing worsens, a stream that carries a large share of gross profit shrinks and cash conversion slows.
  • Credit losses and prepayments on the receivables — Item 1A flags credit losses, prepayment behaviour, enforceability of the contracts and risk-retention requirements. Carvana keeps a residual exposure to the loans it sells, so deteriorating borrower performance hits it even after the sale.
  • Substantial indebtedness — The filing devotes a section to substantial debt levels and to whether cash flow will suffice to service them, alongside restrictive covenants that limit how the company can raise further capital.
  • Used-vehicle prices and inventory turn — Carvana lists volatility in vehicle pricing and its ability to acquire inventory and sell it quickly enough. Cars bought at one price and sold weeks later at a lower one compress a margin that is thin to begin with.
  • Consumer demand and the wider automotive ecosystem — The first risk factor covers the automotive ecosystem as a whole: consumer demand, supply-chain disruption and macroeconomic conditions such as inflation and recession, all of which move how many used cars people buy and on what credit terms.
  • Heavily regulated activities — Selling cars, originating consumer loans and distributing insurance-like products each carry their own federal, state and local rules. The company warns that changes in those rules, or alleged non-compliance, could materially affect results.
  • Controlled company and related-party ties — Carvana discloses that the Garcia parties hold controlling influence, that it relies on controlled-company exemptions, and that its relationship with DriveTime and other affiliated entities can create conflicts between the interests of Class A stockholders and those of the controlling holders.

Concentração de clientes

The filing discloses no customer concentration, and none would be expected: retail revenue comes from hundreds of thousands of individual car buyers, 596,641 of them in 2025, and wholesale revenue is spread across dealers bidding at ADESA auctions. The concentration that matters for Carvana sits on the other side of the balance sheet — the banks and securitisation investors that buy its loan originations, a much smaller and more concentrated group than its car buyers.

Os argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that Carvana came through its 2022-2023 debt crisis with the model intact and is now compounding: 596,641 retail units in 2025, up 43%, $20.3 billion of revenue up 49%, $1.9 billion of net income and $2.2 billion of adjusted EBITDA, after years of losses. They see a fixed network — reconditioning centres, the transport fleet, the ADESA sites — that is still far from full, so each additional car spreads the same overhead and widens profit per unit without much new capital. They point out that Carvana still sells a low-single-digit share of a fragmented US used-car market of tens of millions of transactions a year, and that the financing and product attachment revenue, which needs no extra vehicle cost, grows with every incremental sale.

Os argumentos contra

Sellers fear that the profits depend on two things that can turn at once. A large slice of gross profit comes from originating loans and selling them on; if credit markets tighten, if securitisation buyers demand wider spreads, or if borrowers — many of them subprime — fall behind, that slice thins just as demand for cars weakens, because the same interest rates drive both. They also note the substantial debt the company itself flags, which leaves little room if a downturn hits volumes and used-car prices together, as happened in 2022. Beyond that they question how durable the advantage is: used cars are interchangeable, a buyer returns once every several years, and CarMax, dealer groups and other online sellers can match the offer, so today's margin per unit may reflect a favourable moment in the cycle rather than a permanent gain. The controlled-company structure and the DriveTime relationship, both disclosed as risks, leave minority holders with limited say over how those tensions are resolved.

Generated on 18 de setembro de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 18 de setembro de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 34.2Score: 65Market cap: $8.00B

The largest used-vehicle retailer in the United States, named by Carvana in its own 10-K, selling the same 0-10 year old used cars to the same retail buyers through a no-haggle online and in-store channel, with its own financing arm.

Lithia Motors, Inc. (Driveway)LAD

Its Driveway platform offers the same end-to-end online used-car purchase with home delivery, trade-in and captive financing that Carvana built its business on, backed by a nationwide dealership network.

AutoNation, Inc.AN

Sells used vehicles at one fixed price through 26 used-only AutoNation USA stores plus an omnichannel site with home delivery, and buys cars from consumers with its "We'll Buy Your Car" programme, competing with Carvana on both sides of the transaction.

Sonic Automotive, Inc. (EchoPark)SAH

Its EchoPark chain is a used-only, low-price retail format aimed at the same one-to-four-year-old vehicle segment as Carvana, now paired with an e-commerce app and a national advertising push.

Balanço & Liquidez

Receita

$25.06B

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Resultado Líquido

$1.57B

Últimos 12 meses (até 30/06/2026)

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

$889M

Capital Próprio Total

$3.44B

Passivo Total

$9.00B

Rácio de Liquidez

3.93

Cobertura de Juros

5.29

Dívida/EBITDA

2.34

Resultados Por Ação

Receita & Resultado Líquido

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

Decomposição dos Resultados

Demonstração histórica

Margens ao longo do tempo

A dívida ao longo do tempo

Quanto pesa a dívida

Grelha do crescimento

Crescimento — Receitas

Estimativa de Valor Justo

Caso geralJustamente Valorizada

Valor Justo

$73.35

Preço Atual

$62.54

Margem de Segurança

+14.7%

Intervalo de Valor Justo

$56.43 - $90.28

Dispersão entre os métodos de avaliação utilizados, não um intervalo de confiança calibrado estatisticamente.

Métodos de Estimativa

Preço-alvo dos analistas:$82.98
Fluxo de caixa descontado (DCF):Dados insuficientes para o calcular
Multiplicador de lucros (P/E):$70.58
Fórmula de crescimento de Graham:$30.77
Valor da capacidade de gerar lucro (EPV):$13.18
P/B justificado:$44.81
Desconto de dividendos (Gordon):Dados insuficientes para o calcular
P/FFO, fundos de operações:Dados insuficientes para o calcular
Lucros de meio de ciclo:Dados insuficientes para o calcular
Multiplicador sobre as receitas:$58.05
Consenso dos Analistas:Comprar (22B / 10H / 1S)
Última Surpresa de Resultados:+1.25%

Métricas de Avaliação

Rácio P/E

7.16

ROE

40.9%

Rácio P/B

-

P/FCF

0.00

Margem Bruta

19.4%

ROIC

14.1%

Radar de Rentabilidade

Criação de Valor (Vantagem Competitiva)

ROIC

14.1%

WACC

17.1%

ROIC − WACC

-3.0 pp

O ROIC está abaixo do custo do capital — a empresa está a destruir valor a cada dólar investido.

Critérios de Análise Fundamental

Aprovado (17)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 37.95%
  • ROIC 14.1%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 8.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 46.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 29.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 67% Buy
  • Net Margin Trend 6.3% vs 3.5%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Reprovado (5)

  • Gross Margin 19.4%
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -3.0%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.71
  • Share Dilution 26.1%

Indisponível (5)

  • P/FCF 0.00
  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Sinais mistos: algumas áreas requerem atenção

score
criteria

Qualidade dos Resultados

0.71

Moderada: alguma diferença entre lucros e caixa

Diluição de Ações

26.1%

A emitir novas ações, diluindo a participação

Participações institucionais

Governação

Equipa Executiva

NomeCargoIdade
Mr. Ernest C. Garcia IIICo-Founder, President, CEO & Chairman42
Mr. Benjamin Huston J.D.Co-Founder & COO42
Mr. Mark Jenkins Ph.D.Chief Financial Officer46
Mr. Daniel GillChief Product Officer42
Mr. Thomas TairaPresident of Special Projects54
Mr. Ryan S. KeetonCo-Founder & Chief Brand Officer47
Mr. Stephen R. PalmerVice President of Accounting & Finance47
Mr. Michael McKeeverHead of Capital Markets, Investor Relations and Treasury-
Mr. Paul Breaux J.D.VP, General Counsel, Secretary & Chief Compliance Officer41
Ms. Christina KeiserExecutive Vice President of Strategy-

Risco de Auditoria

9

Risco do Conselho

10

Risco de Remuneração

9

Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas

10

Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar

Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.

Documentos

  • Relatório anual (10-K)

    Uma visão anual do negócio, dos resultados financeiros e dos riscos da empresa.

    Arquivado em 2026-02-18

    Ver documento
  • Relatório trimestral (10-Q)

    Uma atualização sobre o desempenho financeiro dos últimos três meses.

    Arquivado em 2026-07-29

    Ver documento
  • Relatório de fato relevante (8-K)

    Um aviso sobre um fato relevante, como uma mudança na liderança ou um grande anúncio.

    Arquivado em 2026-08-14

    Ver documento

via SEC EDGAR

Histórico de Resultados

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for CVNA, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 8/19/2026POSITIVE
    Carvana Up as Report on Walter’s Pledged Stake Allays Fear

    Carvana Co. shares saw a rebound following a report that billionaire Mark Walter's significant stake is pledged. This means Walter cannot immediately liquidate his holdings amid a federal probe into his investment firm. The news alleviates immediate selling pressure concerns, allowing Carvana's stock to recover some ground after a recent two-day decline. Investors view this development positively, as it reduces the immediate risk of a large block sale impacting the stock price, thereby stabilizing sentiment around the used-car dealer.

  • 8/18/2026NEGATIVE
    Walter Probe Weighs on Carvana as Investors Suspect Share Sale

    Carvana Co. shares are experiencing extended losses as investor sentiment is dampened by speculation that major shareholder Mark Walter might divest his stake. This concern stems from a federal probe into Walter's investment conglomerate, casting a shadow over the company's ownership stability. The potential for a significant sell-off by a key investor introduces considerable uncertainty, which is typically viewed negatively by the market and could lead to further price depreciation.

  • 5/19/2026NEUTRAL
    What's Going On With Carvana Stock Tuesday?

    Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) experienced downward pressure on Tuesday, attributed to broader market volatility rather than company-specific news. While the stock's movement reflects general market sentiment, it's crucial for investors to distinguish between systemic risk and fundamental performance. The current trading environment suggests caution, as broad market fluctuations can obscure underlying company value. Further analysis will be needed to determine if this pressure is temporary or indicative of a more significant trend for Carvana.

  • 5/8/2026POSITIVE
    Why Is Carvana Stock Surging On Friday?

    Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) experienced a significant price adjustment on Friday due to an 80% drop following a 5-for-1 stock split. Despite the apparent decline, this move is designed to make the stock more accessible to retail traders by lowering the per-share price, not to reflect a loss in company value. For investors, this split can potentially increase liquidity and attract a broader investor base, which may lead to increased demand and a positive sentiment towards the stock.

  • 4/20/2026POSITIVE
    How Carvana survived a 99% stock plunge: ‘We’re very comfortable being the underdog’

    Carvana Inc. has demonstrated a remarkable recovery, staging a significant comeback since its near-collapse in 2022. Despite a prior 99% stock price plunge, the company has navigated its challenges and is now positioned as a resilient underdog in the automotive retail sector. This narrative of survival and resurgence suggests a potential turnaround, offering a compelling case for investors who favor companies with strong recovery potential and a demonstrated ability to overcome adversity. The company's strategic positioning as an underdog may also foster a culture of innovation and cost-efficiency.

  • 3/24/2026POSITIVE
    Carvana Set To Become Top US Independent Used-Car Dealer: Analyst

    BofA Securities has reiterated its 'Buy' rating on Carvana Co. (CVNA), setting a price target of $400. This target suggests a potential upside of 33.5% from current levels, driven by the company's strengthening operational momentum. The analyst firm's conviction indicates a positive outlook for Carvana, positioning it to potentially become the leading independent used-car dealer in the US. Investors should monitor Carvana's execution on its operational strategies as this could translate into significant shareholder value.

  • 3/23/2026POSITIVE
    Why Carvana Stock Is Up Monday Afternoon

    Carvana Co. shares experienced a notable increase on Monday, influenced by geopolitical developments. The announcement of President Trump pausing U.S. strikes on Iran led to a significant drop in oil prices, which in turn provided a bullish tailwind for the broader equity market. This positive sentiment carried over to Carvana, suggesting that a lower energy cost environment is perceived as beneficial for the company's operational and consumer spending outlook. Investors are likely interpreting this as a signal for improved consumer discretionary spending, a key driver for Carvana's used car sales business.

  • 3/13/2026POSITIVE
    Why Is Carvana Stock Gaining Today?

    Carvana Inc. shares experienced a notable increase on Friday following the company's announcement of a 5-for-1 stock split. This strategic move, aimed at making the stock more accessible to a broader range of investors by lowering its per-share price, has been positively received. While a stock split does not alter the fundamental value of the company, it often signals management's confidence in future growth and can attract new retail investors, potentially boosting demand and share price in the short to medium term. Investors will be monitoring the company's subsequent performance and market reaction.

via Markets Gazette