Voltar à classificação

Ferrovial SE (FER)

Superavaliada
IndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionNetherlands

Fundamental

48

Preço

$52.52

Capitalização de Mercado

$39.89B

Parte 1 · Quanto vale a empresa

Visão Geral

Ferrovial builds and operates large transport infrastructure: toll highways, airports and construction projects for governments and public agencies. It designs and constructs roads, rail and airport facilities under contract, and separately holds long-term concessions — decades-long rights, granted by governments, to operate a specific highway or airport and collect tolls or fees from it. The concessions, not the construction work, are what the company is ultimately built around.

Como gera receita

Construction revenue is booked as work is completed on fixed-price or cost-plus contracts, mostly for public clients, and depends on winning and executing a limited number of large projects. Highway revenue comes from tolls paid by drivers, often linked to inflation or traffic volume under the concession terms, and flows to Ferrovial mainly as dividends from the project companies it partly owns. Airport revenue would work the same way once assets like New Terminal One at JFK become operational; today that project is still under construction and not yet generating toll-like income.

Receita por segmento

Construction80.2%

Building roads, rail and other infrastructure for public and private clients under fixed-price or cost-plus contracts, mostly in North America, Poland and Spain.

Highways14.6%

Toll roads held under long-term concessions, led by North American managed lanes and Canada's 407 ETR, which paid large dividends in 2025.

Energy3.5%

A smaller and more recent line of energy infrastructure projects, still modest relative to construction and highways.

Vantagem competitiva

Patentes e licenças · Ampla

Each highway or airport concession is a government-granted, decades-long exclusive right to operate a specific piece of infrastructure — there is no realistic way for a competitor to build a parallel toll road next to an existing one. That legal exclusivity, not brand or technology, is the source of the advantage, and it applies only to the concessions Ferrovial already holds, not to the construction business, which is competitively bid project by project.

O que impulsiona a procura

Moderadamente cíclico

Highway toll revenue is fairly steady, tied to driving habits and inflation-linked tariff formulas rather than to the broader economic cycle. Construction revenue is choppier: it depends on how many large public infrastructure contracts are being awarded at a given time and on Ferrovial winning a share of them, which can swing year to year even when the economy is stable.

Principais riscos

  • Dependence on a small number of large projects — A large share of revenue and profit comes from a limited number of major construction contracts and concessions, so losing a bid, a cost overrun, or a delay on any one of them has an outsized effect on results.
  • Government contracting and regulatory risk — Concessions operate under agreements with governments that can change tariff rules, delay approvals, or in some cases move to buy back or renegotiate the concession, all of which are outside the company's control.
  • New Terminal One execution risk — The New Terminal One at JFK Airport is a large, complex project still under construction and systems integration, with completion phases pushed to later dates; delays or cost increases weigh on the airports business before it starts generating revenue.
  • Geopolitical and macroeconomic exposure — The company points to geopolitical conflicts, inflation, interest-rate volatility and foreign-exchange swings as factors that can affect project costs, financing and the value of assets held in different currencies.

Os argumentos a favor

Buyers argue that the highway concessions behave like inflation-linked annuities with no realistic competition, that the construction order book at a record €17.4 billion gives years of visible work, and that New Terminal One will eventually add a third durable, concession-like income stream once it opens.

Os argumentos contra

Sellers worry that construction remains a low-margin, project-dependent business exposed to cost overruns and government-client relationships, that concession value depends on regulatory goodwill that can turn adversarial, and that New Terminal One's repeated delays show how much execution risk sits between today's spending and tomorrow's cash flow.

Written by the editors, published on 18 de agosto de 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on 18 de setembro de 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A.ACS

The other large Spanish infrastructure group, ACS bids against Ferrovial for the same heavy civil construction contracts and public-private partnership concessions in North America, Spain and Australia, and like Ferrovial it pairs a construction arm with a toll-road concession portfolio.

VINCI SADG

VINCI is the European reference in the same two businesses Ferrovial lives on — building infrastructure and then operating it under long concessions for motorways and airports — and the two meet on the same tenders in Europe and in international airport and toll-road bids.

Sacyr, S.A.SCYR

Sacyr has moved its business toward toll-road and hospital concessions in the same way Ferrovial did, and competes for the same highway concession awards in Spain, Italy and Latin America.

Transurban GroupTCL

Transurban is the closest rival to Ferrovial's Cintra in North American managed lanes, running the 495 and 95 Express Lanes in Virginia next to Cintra's I-66 Express and chasing the same new express-lane concessions in the United States.

Eiffage SAFGR

Eiffage combines a construction business with motorway concessions through APRR, and competes with Ferrovial for European civil works contracts and for infrastructure concessions put out to tender.

ACCIONA, S.A.ANA

ACCIONA bids on the same international transport infrastructure concessions and large civil works as Ferrovial, particularly in Spain, Latin America and Australia, with the same design-build-finance-operate model.

Balanço & Liquidez

Receita

$9.91B

Últimos 12 meses até o último trimestre divulgado — estimativa a partir de métricas por ação

Resultado Líquido

$612M

Últimos 12 meses até o último trimestre divulgado — estimativa a partir de métricas por ação

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

$890M

Capital Próprio Total

$6.56B

Passivo Total

$10.66B

Rácio de Liquidez

1.20

Cobertura de Juros

-

Dívida/EBITDA

6.88

Resultados Por Ação

Receita & Resultado Líquido

Fluxo de Caixa Livre

Decomposição dos Resultados

Demonstração histórica

Margens ao longo do tempo

A dívida ao longo do tempo

Quanto pesa a dívida

Grelha do crescimento

Crescimento — Receitas

Estimativa de Valor Justo

Caso geralSobrevalorizada

Valor Justo

$43.56

Preço Atual

$52.52

Margem de Segurança

-20.6%

Intervalo de Valor Justo

$28.32 - $58.81

Dispersão entre os métodos de avaliação utilizados, não um intervalo de confiança calibrado estatisticamente.

Métodos de Estimativa

Preço-alvo dos analistas:$75.91
Fluxo de caixa descontado (DCF):$22.26
Multiplicador de lucros (P/E):$42.11
Fórmula de crescimento de Graham:$15.30
Valor da capacidade de gerar lucro (EPV):$10.71
P/B justificado:$8.51
Desconto de dividendos (Gordon):$3.61
P/FFO, fundos de operações:Dados insuficientes para o calcular
Lucros de meio de ciclo:Dados insuficientes para o calcular
Multiplicador sobre as receitas:$39.12
Consenso dos Analistas:Comprar (15B / 10H / 2S)
Última Surpresa de Resultados:+5.26%

Métricas de Avaliação

Rácio P/E

63.70

ROE

11.6%

Rácio P/B

6.91

P/FCF

44.84

Margem Bruta

69.3%

ROIC

4.7%

Radar de Rentabilidade

Criação de Valor (Vantagem Competitiva)

ROIC

4.7%

WACC

7.8%

ROIC − WACC

-3.1 pp

O ROIC está abaixo do custo do capital — a empresa está a destruir valor a cada dólar investido.

Critérios de Análise Fundamental

Aprovado (11)

  • Price CAGR 11.97%
  • Gross Margin 69.3%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 10.0%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • ROE 10.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 8.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 56% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 440.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.80

Reprovado (9)

  • ROIC 4.7%
  • P/FCF 44.84
  • P/B Ratio 6.91
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Net Margin Trend 9.2% vs 35.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

Indisponível (7)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-Score

2/9

Preocupações financeiras graves

score
criteria

Qualidade dos Resultados

2.80

Alta qualidade: resultados respaldados por caixa

Diluição de Ações

-

A recomprar ações. Favorável ao acionista

Participações institucionais

Não há declarações institucionais para esta empresa.

Governação

Equipa Executiva

NomeCargoIdade
Mr. Rafael del Pino y Calvo-SoteloPresident & Executive Chairman67
Mr. Ignacio Madridejos FernandezCEO & Executive Director59
Mr. Ernesto Lopez MozoChief Financial Officer61
Angel Luis SanchezMajor Projects & Operations Director-
Mr. Ignacio del PinoChief Investment Officer-
Mr. Dimitris BountolosChief Information & Innovation Officer-
Silvia RuizInvestor Relations Director-
Ms. Geerte HesenGeneral Counsel, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Secretary-
Ms. Patricia LeivaDirector of Communication & Corporate Social Responsibility-
Mr. Carlos Cerezo ParedesChief Human Resources Officer50

Risco de Auditoria

1

Risco do Conselho

5

Risco de Remuneração

1

Risco dos Direitos dos Acionistas

3

Parte 2 · O preço e o momento de entrar

Esta parte não serve para saber se a empresa vale: serve para escolher quando comprá-la, depois que os fundamentos te convenceram. Dentro: análise técnica, potencial, quedas históricas, exposição gama.

Latest News

Recent headlines for FER, sourced from Markets Gazette.

No recent news for FER.