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Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)

合理估值
Financial ServicesAsset ManagementUnited States

基本面

61

价格

$19.07

市值

$13.74B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Ares Capital is a business development company that lends directly to mid-sized private US businesses, mostly ones owned by private equity firms, instead of relying on banks or public bond markets. It is externally managed by an affiliate of Ares Management, which finds the loans, negotiates terms and monitors the borrowers, and it holds shares publicly so that individual investors can access private lending returns that are normally only open to large institutions.

盈利方式

Income comes mainly from interest earned on the loans in its portfolio, which are predominantly first lien senior secured loans sitting at the front of the repayment line if a borrower runs into trouble, plus some second lien and subordinated debt and a smaller amount of equity co-investments. As a regulated investment company it must pay out at least 90% of its taxable income as dividends, and it borrows money itself to increase the size of the portfolio it can hold relative to its equity capital.

护城河

规模效应 · 狭窄

As the largest publicly traded business development company, Ares Capital can write bigger cheques and access deals through the broader Ares Management origination platform in ways smaller direct lenders cannot easily match, and its size supports a lower cost of borrowing. That advantage is real but narrow: private credit has attracted heavy competition from other large BDCs, private equity firms' own credit arms and banks re-entering the space.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Deal volume tends to follow private equity buyout activity, which slows when financing is expensive or uncertain, but the interest income on an existing portfolio of hundreds of loans keeps flowing even when new deal-making pauses. The bigger swing factor is credit quality: in a weaker economy, more portfolio companies struggle to pay, and the loans themselves are what is exposed to the cycle rather than a product being bought or not.

主要风险

  • Leverage amplifies losses — Ares Capital borrows money to expand its loan portfolio beyond what its own capital would support; this magnifies gains in good times but also magnifies losses if portfolio credit quality deteriorates.
  • Credit risk from portfolio companies — Borrowers are mid-sized private companies, often carrying meaningful debt of their own; an economic downturn would raise the share of loans on non-accrual status and increase the risk of losses on individual positions.
  • Dependence on maintaining BDC and RIC tax status — Losing business development company status would reduce operating flexibility, and failing to maintain regulated investment company status would expose the company to corporate-level taxes, cutting into what is left to distribute to shareholders.
  • Interest rate exposure — Much of the portfolio earns floating-rate interest, so falling rates reduce investment income directly, while the cost of the company's own borrowing also moves with rates and can squeeze the spread it earns.
  • External management conflicts of interest — Because Ares Capital is managed by an affiliate of Ares Management rather than its own employees, the manager's fee incentives may not always align perfectly with what is best for shareholders, a standard risk of the externally managed structure.

看多理由

Buyers argue that Ares Capital's scale and access to the wider Ares Management origination platform give it first-lien-heavy deal flow that smaller lenders cannot match, that non-accrual levels remain below the sector's historical average, and that its size and diversification across hundreds of portfolio companies reduce the impact of any single credit problem.

看空理由

Sellers fear that leverage means any broad deterioration in mid-market credit quality would hit shareholder returns harder than an unlevered lender, that heavy competition from other private credit funds is compressing the terms and pricing available on new loans, and that the externally managed structure leaves less direct alignment with shareholders than an internally managed peer.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年8月23日 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 75.8Score: 56Market cap: —

The second-largest listed business development company, it originates the same senior secured loans to private-equity-backed U.S. middle-market companies that Ares Capital bids for.

P/E: 19.4Score: 66Market cap: $3.28B

A middle-market specialist whose portfolio is over 90% first-lien loans to private-equity-sponsored borrowers, the identical customer base Ares Capital serves.

Blackstone Secured Lending FundBXSL

Backed by Blackstone's credit platform, it competes deal by deal with Ares Capital for first-lien loans to the same large sponsor-owned borrowers.

FS KKR Capital Corp.FSK

Another large listed BDC lending senior secured and subordinated debt to private U.S. middle-market companies, drawing on KKR's origination network to win the same mandates.

Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.TSLX

Competes for the same directly originated, structured loans to upper-middle-market U.S. companies, often on the same transactions Ares Capital underwrites.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending FundMSDL

A listed direct-lending vehicle targeting the same sponsor-backed U.S. middle-market borrowers with senior secured unitranche loans.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$3.11B

截至2025/12/31的财政年度

净利润

$1.30B

截至2025/12/31的财政年度

自由现金流

-

股东权益合计

$14.32B

负债合计

$16.92B

流动比率

1.67

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

-

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

暂无收入数据

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形合理估值

公允价值

$23.92

当前价格

$19.07

安全边际

+20.3%

公允价值区间

$15.55 - $32.29

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$20.77
现金流折现法(DCF):$37.71
市盈率法(P/E):$13.46
格雷厄姆成长公式:$34.17
盈利能力价值(EPV):$20.28
合理市净率(P/B):$16.46
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$22.80
P/FFO(运营资金):数据不足,无法计算
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$11.32
分析师共识:强力买入 (16B / 4H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:-2.61%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

11.72

ROE

9.1%

市净率(P/B)

0.98

P/FCF

-

毛利率

-

ROIC

-

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

-

WACC

5.9%

ROIC − WACC

-

基本面分析标准

通过(10)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 10.29%
  • P/B Ratio 0.98
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 15.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 80% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.40

未通过(7)

  • Price CAGR 1.51%
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE 6.8%
  • Earnings Surprise avg -2.7%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) -1.07
  • Share Dilution 12.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

不可用(11)

  • ROIC NaN%
  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Net Margin Trend (invalid data)

Piotroski F-评分

1/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

-1.07

低质量:需深入审查会计处理

股权稀释

12.0%

正在发行新股,稀释所有权

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Mitchell Scott Goldstein CPACo-Chairman, Partner & Co-Head of Ares Credit Group58
Mr. Michael Lewis SmithCo-Chairman of Board of Directors & Co-Head of Ares Credit Group54
Mr. Michael J. AroughetiExecutive VP & Director53
Mr. Kort SchnabelCEO & Co-Head of U.S. Direct Lending48
Mr. James MillerPresident & Co-Head of U.S. Direct Lending48
Mr. Bennett RosenthalCo-Founder, Director, Partner & Chairman of Private Equity Group62
Mr. Scott C. LemCFO & Treasurer47
Ms. Jana MarkowiczChief Operating Officer44
Mr. Won Jae ChoChief Accounting Officer42
Mr. John W. StilmarPartner & Co-Head of Public Markets Investor Relations-

审计风险

4

董事会风险

9

薪酬风险

5

股东权利风险

6

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-04

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-07-29

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-09-15

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ARCC, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 17d agoPOSITIVE
    Queste 3 azioni sottovalutate potrebbero salire se la Fed alza i tassi questa settimana

    The Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting is highly anticipated, with over 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. August core inflation data and hawkish commentary from Chairman Kevin Warsh have shifted market expectations away from easing. While higher borrowing costs generally pressure stocks, a rate increase could benefit select financial firms. Ares Capital, along with Starwood Property Trust and Ladder Capital, are identified as potential beneficiaries due to their specialization in lending, which could see improved earnings growth in a higher-rate environment. Investors should monitor these companies as potential beneficiaries of the Fed's policy shift.

  • 3/31/2026NEUTRAL
    Ares Capital's Dividend Buffer Looks Intact, But Rate Sensitivity Could Shift The Narrative

    Ares Capital Corporation's dividend coverage ratio remains robust, indicating financial stability and the ability to sustain payouts. However, the article highlights potential headwinds from interest rate sensitivity. While current conditions support the dividend, a sustained higher-rate environment could pressure earnings and the company's ability to maintain its payout levels without adjustments. Investors should monitor rate decisions and their impact on Ares Capital's net interest margin and overall profitability.

via Markets Gazette