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CME Group Inc. (CME)

被低估
Financial ServicesFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesUnited States

基本面

76

价格

$266.13

市值

$96.69B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

CME Group runs the exchanges where traders buy and sell standardized futures and options contracts on interest rates, stock indexes, currencies, energy, agricultural commodities and metals — agreements to buy or sell something at a set price on a future date. It does not take positions itself: it provides the marketplace, matches buyers with sellers, and, through its clearing house, guarantees that both sides of every trade get paid even if one of them defaults.

盈利方式

Most revenue comes from a small fee charged on every contract traded and cleared, so revenue rises with trading volume rather than with the direction prices move — a volatile market that makes people trade more is good for CME even if prices are falling. A second stream comes from selling the market data CME's exchanges generate to traders, banks and data vendors, plus investment income earned on the cash collateral customers post to guarantee their trades.

护城河

网络效应 · 宽阔

A futures contract is only useful if enough other traders use the identical contract, because that shared pool of buyers and sellers lets anyone enter or exit a position quickly at a fair price. Once a contract accumulates that liquidity at CME, a rival exchange offering the same contract cannot easily attract traders away — a network effect that has kept CME's benchmark contracts dominant for decades.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Trading volume, and so revenue, rises when markets are volatile and traders need to hedge or speculate on fast-moving prices, and can soften in calm, low-volatility periods regardless of the broader economic cycle. Interest rate policy is a particularly large swing factor, since CME's interest rate contracts are its single biggest product line and trading in them picks up whenever rate expectations are in flux.

主要风险

  • Dependence on trading volume and volatility — Revenue depends on how much trading happens on CME's exchanges; a sustained period of low volatility or reduced trading activity directly reduces transaction fee revenue, the largest part of the business.
  • Competition from other exchanges and clearing venues — Rival exchanges, and the possibility of a competing venue attracting enough liquidity in one of CME's core contracts, could draw trading volume away from CME's markets over time.
  • Regulatory risk — CME's exchanges and clearing house operate under close regulatory oversight in the US and abroad; a change in rules on trading, clearing or capital requirements could raise costs or restrict how the business operates.
  • Concentration in interest rate products — A large share of CME's revenue comes from interest rate futures and options; a structural shift in these products, or in how rate risk is hedged, would affect results more than the diversification across asset classes might suggest.

看多理由

Buyers argue that the liquidity concentrated in CME's benchmark futures contracts is nearly impossible for a new exchange to replicate, that rising market volatility from any source tends to increase trading volume and revenue, and that a fee-per-contract model scales with almost no added cost as volume grows.

看空理由

Sellers fear that a sustained calm market reduces the trading volume CME's revenue depends on, that regulators could reshape how derivatives trading and clearing work in ways CME cannot control, and that a large share of results still rests on interest rate products whose trading patterns could shift structurally.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 21.5Score: 62Market cap: $85.84B

CME names ICE first among its rivals: both run futures and options exchanges plus their own clearing houses, competing head-on in energy, interest-rate and equity-index contracts for the same institutional traders.

P/E: 21.5Score: 82Market cap: $27.94B

Cboe's index options and volatility franchise (SPX, VIX), together with Cboe Clear, competes for the same US derivatives order flow and clearing fees that CME earns on its equity-index and futures complex.

Deutsche Börse AG (Eurex)DB1

Through Eurex, Deutsche Börse is the main venue for euro-denominated interest-rate and equity-index futures and offers clearing that competes for the global banks and asset managers who also trade CME's rate complex.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (香港交易及結算所有限公司)0388

HKEX runs Asian equity-index, currency and commodity derivatives (including the LME metals franchise) with its own clearing houses, competing with CME for Asian-hours volume and for metals and FX hedgers.

Euronext N.V.ENX

Euronext operates European equity-index and commodity derivatives markets and its own clearing house, competing with CME for European listed-derivatives trading and clearing revenue.

FMX Futures Exchange, L.P.Not tracked

Backed by BGC Group and a consortium of banks, FMX targets exactly CME's core franchise — US Treasury and SOFR interest-rate futures — offering LCH clearing to pull that liquidity away.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$6.77B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$4.29B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$4.19B

股东权益合计

$28.73B

负债合计

$169.70B

流动比率

1.02

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

0.89

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形被低估

公允价值

$777.02

当前价格

$266.13

安全边际

+65.7%

公允价值区间

$505.06 - $1048.97

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$283.60
现金流折现法(DCF):$2259.58
市盈率法(P/E):$247.88
格雷厄姆成长公式:$378.49
盈利能力价值(EPV):$288.92
合理市净率(P/B):$161.28
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$147.38
P/FFO(运营资金):$1003.48
周期中段收益:$657.74
市销率法(P/S):$91.34
分析师共识:持有 (11B / 7H / 3S)
最近财报超预期:+1.79%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

22.22

ROE

14.2%

市净率(P/B)

0.66

P/FCF

4.14

毛利率

-

ROIC

9.7%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

9.7%

WACC

7.7%

ROIC − WACC

+2.0 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(20)

  • Price CAGR 8.91%
  • ROIC 9.7%
  • P/FCF 4.14
  • P/B Ratio 0.66
  • Operating Margin 65.1%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 15.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 18.7%
  • Analyst Consensus 52% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.62
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.01
  • Share Dilution 0.1%
  • Net Margin Trend 63.3% vs 58.5%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

未通过(5)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -1.60%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Earnings Surprise avg 0.3%

不可用(3)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-评分

5/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.01

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

0.1%

股份数量稳定

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Terrence A. DuffyChairman & CEO67
Ms. Lynne C. FitzpatrickSenior MD, President & CFO47
Mr. Sunil CutinhoChief Information Officer53
Mr. Derek L. SammannSenior MD & Global Head of Commodities Markets57
Ms. Julie M. WinklerSenior MD & Chief Commercial Officer50
Ms. Suzanne SpragueSenior MD, Group COO & Global Head of Clearing-
Mr. Jack TobinMD & Chief Accounting Officer61
Adam MinickInvestor Contact-
Mr. Jonathan L. Marcus J.D.Senior MD & General Counsel-
Ms. Anita LiskeySenior Managing Director of Corporate Marketing & Communications60

审计风险

1

董事会风险

9

薪酬风险

8

股东权利风险

10

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-26

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-07-24

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-09-25

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for CME, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 28d agoNEUTRAL
    CFTC files to dismiss CME lawsuit over crypto perpetual futures

    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit brought by CME Group concerning crypto perpetual futures. CFTC lawyers characterized the suit as "much ado about nothing," asserting that CME Group lacks the legal standing to bring the case and refuting its claims. This legal maneuver by the CFTC aims to halt the proceedings, suggesting the regulator believes the CME Group's arguments are unfounded. The outcome could set precedents for regulatory oversight of crypto derivatives.

  • 8/21/2026NEUTRAL
    CME CEO Spars With CFTC Chair About Prediction Market Oversight

    CME Group CEO has urged the CFTC to enhance oversight of prediction markets, citing concerns about potential manipulation as these platforms rapidly expand. The call highlights a growing tension between financial regulators and innovative trading venues. While the CME, a major derivatives marketplace, benefits from robust regulatory frameworks, the rapid ascent of prediction markets presents new challenges for market integrity. Investors in CME should monitor regulatory developments closely, as increased oversight could impact the competitive landscape for derivatives and alternative trading platforms.

  • 8/5/2026NEGATIVE
    CME, FanDuel Venture Falters As Prediction Startups Race Ahead

    CME Group Inc. and FanDuel are reportedly scaling back their joint venture focused on prediction markets. The initiative, aimed at competing with burgeoning prediction startups, has failed to gain significant traction. This lack of progress in a rapidly growing sector, which poses a challenge to traditional financial exchanges and sports betting operators, suggests a missed opportunity for CME. Investors may view this as a setback in their diversification efforts into alternative betting and financial products.

  • 7/29/2026NEUTRAL
    FIA CEO on Prediction Market 'Disruption,' Regulation

    CME Group is set to launch single-stock futures, enabling investors to hedge or speculate on over 50 major US companies. These cash-settled contracts will offer leverage without the complexities of options, tied to the closing prices of the underlying stocks. FIA CEO Walt Lukken views the expansion of prediction markets and new products like these as beneficial for developing robust regulatory frameworks within the financial industry. The move signals an evolving landscape for derivatives and speculative trading, potentially increasing market activity and investor participation in new asset classes.

  • 7/26/2026NEUTRAL
    Traders are getting a new tool to wager on the biggest U.S. stocks

    CME Group Inc. is launching single-stock futures on Monday, offering traders a new avenue to hedge or speculate on over 50 of the largest U.S. companies. This product expansion provides increased flexibility for investors seeking to manage risk or express views on individual large-cap stocks. While potentially increasing trading volume and revenue for CME, the direct impact on the underlying stocks is neutral as it provides a new derivative instrument rather than affecting the companies' fundamentals.

  • 6/25/2026NEUTRAL
    CME Plans to Launch Wind Derivatives for US, Europe, Australia

    CME Group Inc. is reportedly planning to introduce wind derivatives contracts spanning the US, Europe, and Australia. This strategic move by the exchange operator aligns with the increasing global emphasis on renewable energy sources and their integration into power generation. While the specific details and launch timeline remain undisclosed, the initiative signals CME's proactive approach to capitalize on the growing renewable energy market. Investors will be watching for further announcements regarding contract specifications and potential market impact.

  • 6/25/2026POSITIVE
    CME Plans Wind Derivatives Launch for US, Europe, Australia

    The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is reportedly planning to launch wind derivatives contracts spanning the US, Europe, and Australia. This strategic move anticipates the increasing significance of renewable energy sources in global power generation. The introduction of these derivatives could provide crucial hedging tools for the burgeoning wind energy sector, potentially attracting more investment and stabilizing prices. For investors, this signals CME's proactive engagement with the growing green energy market, offering new avenues for speculation and risk management within the energy commodity space.

  • 6/22/2026NEGATIVE
    CME Trading Disrupted as Platform Faces ‘Disconnects’

    CME Group, the world's largest derivatives exchange operator, experienced significant trading disruptions on Monday due to platform 'disconnects'. The issue, communicated to customers via email, impacted trading operations midday. While the exact duration and full extent of the disruption are yet to be fully detailed, such technical failures can lead to reduced trading volumes, potential financial losses for participants, and damage to the exchange's reputation for reliability. Investors will be monitoring the company's response and any potential impact on its financial results.

  • 6/22/2026NEUTRAL
    CME Direct Trading Platform Is Back Up After Earlier Disruptions

    CME Direct, a key trading platform operated by CME Group Inc., has resumed full operations following a brief period of technical disruption on Monday. The platform experienced difficulties that impacted trading activities, according to market participants. The restoration of services is crucial for maintaining market liquidity and confidence. While the disruption was temporary, such incidents can highlight operational risks for exchanges. Investors will monitor CME's communication regarding the cause and preventative measures to ensure future stability.

via Markets Gazette