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Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT)

被高估
Communication ServicesInternet Content & InformationUnited States

基本面

33

价格

$8.70

市值

$2.52B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (Nasdaq: DJT) runs Truth Social, a social media platform the company describes as a 'safe harbor for free expression'; Truth+, a streaming service with family-friendly live TV channels and on-demand content; and Truth.Fi, a financial-services and fintech brand launched in January 2025 that covers separately managed accounts, ETFs and a digital-asset strategy including a bitcoin treasury. The company became public in March 2024 through a reverse recapitalization with Digital World Acquisition Corp. The scale gap is the first thing to understand: the FY2025 10-K reports $3.68 million of revenue for the whole group, against a consolidated net loss of $712.3 million driven mostly by non-cash marks on digital assets, and roughly $2.5 billion of cash, short-term investments, equity securities and digital assets on the balance sheet at year-end. Measured by assets it is closer to an investment vehicle with a small media operation attached than to an operating internet company.

盈利方式

Two streams, both small. Advertising on Truth Social is recognised in the period the advertising service is delivered, and is booked net of costs where an advertising manager sits between the company and the advertiser; it produced $3.43 million of the $3.68 million of FY2025 revenue. Subscriptions are sales of the Patriot Package on Truth+, recognised rateably over the subscription period (mostly monthly), and produced $0.26 million. Truth.Fi, the third platform, generated no revenue at all in 2025 while spending $2.84 million. Everything the company earns therefore comes from selling the attention of the Truth Social audience, plus a small streaming subscription line; the bitcoin treasury and the securities portfolio move the income statement through fair-value gains and losses, not through revenue.

分部营收

Media100%

Truth Social and Truth+: advertising sold to brands and advertising networks on the social platform ($3.43 million in FY2025) plus Patriot Package streaming subscriptions sold to consumers ($0.26 million). This segment carries all of the group's revenue and reported segment EBITDA of -$22.0 million in FY2025.

Truth.Fi0%

The financial-services and fintech arm launched in January 2025: separately managed accounts, ETFs and the digital-asset strategy, aimed at retail investors. It recorded zero revenue in FY2025 against $2.84 million of professional fees, licensing, personnel and marketing costs.

护城河

未发现护城河 · 无

The filing shows no evidence of a durable competitive advantage. The company's distinguishing asset is a brand tied to one public figure and an audience that chose the platform for political reasons, but after four years that audience has not translated into economics: group revenue has been between roughly $1.5 million and $4.1 million every year since 2022, and the company itself lists competition as an ongoing threat and says it may not succeed in monetising the Truth ecosystem. There are no switching costs (posts and followers are not portable value the way an enterprise system is), no network effects at this scale against far larger platforms, and no cost advantage: the company relies on third-party infrastructure and on outside advertising platforms to sell its inventory.

需求驱动因素

周期性

Almost all revenue is advertising, which is one of the first budget lines companies cut in a downturn, and here it is sold on a platform whose audience is drawn by politics: engagement — and with it advertising inventory — tends to swell around election cycles and major news events and to fade in between. Subscription revenue from Truth+ is steadier by nature but is a small fraction of the total. On top of that, the company's reported results now depend mainly on bitcoin and other digital-asset prices, which follow their own cycle and are far more volatile than advertising. The 10-K itself states that operating results will be dependent on the price of digital assets.

主要风险

  • Limited operating history and continuing losses — The company states it has a limited operating history that makes its business and prospects difficult to evaluate, that it is an early-stage company still improving its business model, and that it expects to incur operating losses for the foreseeable future. It also warns it may need additional capital and cannot be sure financing will be available.
  • Audience may not grow or may drift away — If Truth Social or Truth+ fails to develop and maintain followers or a sufficient audience, or if adverse trends develop for social platforms and streaming services generally, the business would be adversely affected. The company also flags that it may not succeed in growing and monetising the Truth ecosystem, and that new products and initiatives could fail to attract enough users and advertisers.
  • Brand, reputation and media coverage — The company has built its identity on being a platform for free expression, and warns that failing to realise that vision — or a change in the belief that speech is suppressed elsewhere — could damage its brand and prospects. It separately lists false, misleading and unfavourable media coverage as a risk to the business.
  • Digital asset holdings drive the results — The company states that bitcoin and Cronos are volatile assets whose price swings are likely to influence its financial results and the market price of its listed securities, that its operating results depend on digital-asset prices, that these assets carry legal, commercial, regulatory and technical uncertainty, and that historical statements before 30 September 2025 do not reflect the earnings variability this creates. It also notes enhanced regulatory oversight and the risk that alternative ways of getting bitcoin exposure reduce demand for its own shares.
  • Material weaknesses in internal control — The company disclosed that, preparing the financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2024, it identified material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting, and that it may identify further weaknesses, which could lead to material misstatements and to failing its reporting obligations.
  • Technology failures and cyber attacks — The filing warns that undetected software errors, service disruptions, or failure to scale the technology and infrastructure in time could harm results, and that malware, viruses, hacking, phishing, scamming and spam could damage the user experience and the company's reputation, deterring current and potential users.
  • A very large balance sheet for a very small business — The company explicitly lists as a risk that it carries a large amount of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet, which exposes it to additional risks. It also notes that digital assets, digital assets pledged and equity securities made up about 68.5% of total assets at 31 December 2025.

客户集中度

主要客户占营收的79.6%

The 10-K discloses that one advertising platform accounted for 79.6% of total revenue in 2025, after 94.0% in 2024 and 88.5% in 2023. In other words the company does not sell most of its advertising itself: a single intermediary fills the inventory and is, in accounting terms, the concentration. The dependence eased slightly in 2025 but remains near total, and losing that platform — or a change in its terms — would remove most of the revenue at a stroke.

看多理由

Buyers argue that the reported revenue understates what the company is: it ended 2025 with roughly $2.5 billion of cash, short-term investments, equity securities and digital assets, against $776.8 million a year earlier, and it turned operating cash flow positive at $14.8 million in 2025 after a $61.0 million outflow in 2024 — so the media operation is no longer consuming cash the way it did. They argue that the audience Truth Social has assembled is loyal and hard for a competitor to reproduce, that monetisation has barely begun (the Patriot Package, Truth+ and the Truth.Fi products were all launched recently), and that a single advertising partner at 79.6% of revenue is a starting point rather than a ceiling once the company sells its own inventory. Finally, they treat the bitcoin treasury and the securities portfolio as an option on digital-asset prices held inside a listed company, with the media platforms as a free call on top.

看空理由

Sellers fear that after four years the business has never shown it can sell anything: group revenue was $3.68 million in 2025 against $3.62 million in 2024 and $4.13 million in 2023, which is less than many single websites earn, while the group lost $712.3 million in 2025. They point out that Truth.Fi generated zero revenue in its first year while spending $2.84 million, that the Media segment's own EBITDA was -$22.0 million, and that one advertising platform supplies four-fifths of what little revenue exists. They argue that the market value rests almost entirely on the digital-asset and securities portfolio — the company itself warns that operating results will depend on digital-asset prices, and the 2025 loss came mostly from $403.2 million of marks on digital assets and $178.8 million on digital-asset-related securities — so an investor is buying crypto exposure wrapped in an operating company, at whatever premium the wrapper carries. They also note the disclosed material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting and the concentration of the brand in a single public figure.

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: —Score: 41Market cap: —

Rumble runs a video-and-streaming platform built on the same free-speech positioning and chases the same US right-leaning audience and advertisers that Truth Social and Truth+ depend on.

P/E: 27.3Score: 68Market cap: —

Facebook, Instagram and Threads compete for the daily attention of the same American users and absorb the social advertising spending Truth Social is trying to attract.

X Corp. (X, formerly Twitter)Not tracked

X is the short-form public posting platform Truth Social was created to replace, and after its change of ownership it competes for exactly the same users, political conversation and ad budgets.

GETTR USA, Inc. (GETTR)Not tracked

GETTR is an alternative microblogging app targeting the same American conservative user base, competing post-for-post with Truth Social for that audience.

Gab AI, Inc. (Gab)Not tracked

Gab offers a social network with the same anti-moderation pitch and draws from the same niche of US users who left the mainstream platforms.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$5M

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$-1.30B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$14M

股东权益合计

$1.65B

负债合计

$983M

流动比率

0.96

利息覆盖率

20.47

债务/EBITDA

-

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形被高估

公允价值

$0.74

当前价格

$8.70

安全边际

-1075.0%

公允价值区间

$0.71 - $0.78

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:数据不足,无法计算
现金流折现法(DCF):$0.74
市盈率法(P/E):数据不足,无法计算
格雷厄姆成长公式:数据不足,无法计算
盈利能力价值(EPV):数据不足,无法计算
合理市净率(P/B):数据不足,无法计算
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):数据不足,无法计算
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$0.03

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

-

ROE

-43.3%

市净率(P/B)

2.46

P/FCF

296.68

毛利率

54.5%

ROIC

-72.9%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

-72.9%

WACC

9.2%

ROIC − WACC

-82.1 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(8)

  • Gross Margin 54.5%
  • P/B Ratio 2.46
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Low reliance on intangibles

未通过(11)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR -29.34%
  • ROIC -72.9%
  • P/FCF 296.68
  • Operating Margin -20955.8%
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • ROE -84.1%
  • Share Dilution 49.8%
  • Net Margin Trend -28868.1% vs -2922.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

不可用(8)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • Revenue Growth 5Y (Finnhub)
  • Analyst Consensus (Finnhub)
  • Earnings Surprise (no valid data)
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)

Piotroski F-评分

3/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

-

低质量:需深入审查会计处理

股权稀释

49.8%

正在发行新股,稀释所有权

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Phillip JuhanCFO & Treasurer50
Mr. Vladimir NovachkiChief Technology Officer37
Mr. Scott GlabeGeneral Counsel & Secretary41
Mr. Kevin J. McGurnInterim Chief Executive Officer52

审计风险

10

董事会风险

9

薪酬风险

9

股东权利风险

7

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-27

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-08-10

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-09-30

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for DJT, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 8/19/2026NEGATIVE
    Trump Media: perché DJT potrebbe diventare presto una penny stock

    Trump Media & Entertainment Group (DJT) shares are facing significant downward pressure, trading at $8, their lowest point since July 8th and down 40% year-to-date. This sharp decline raises concerns about the stock potentially becoming a penny stock within the next 12 months. The company reported a mere $1.7 million in revenue last quarter, a stark contrast to its substantial quarterly loss exceeding $238 million. This financial performance, characterized by minimal revenue and significant losses, is a primary driver of the negative outlook for investors.

  • 8/13/2026NEGATIVE
    Trump sued over ‘selling priority access to news he himself generates for the benefit of a private company he controls’

    Donald Trump faces a lawsuit alleging that Trump Media's Truth API grants preferential access to market-moving posts, potentially violating First and Fifth Amendment rights. Press freedom advocates argue this practice benefits a private company controlled by Trump by providing early trading information. This legal challenge could lead to regulatory scrutiny and operational disruptions for Trump Media, impacting its stock performance and investor sentiment. The core of the complaint centers on the alleged unfair advantage given to certain traders, raising concerns about market integrity and the company's governance practices.

  • 8/12/2026NEUTRAL
    Nearly a dozen firms are already paying up to $100,000 per month for early access Trump’s Truth Social posts

    Several companies are reportedly paying up to $100,000 monthly for early access to posts from Donald Trump's Truth Social platform via a new API. This development has sparked concerns among economists and legal experts regarding potential insider trading. While the exact nature of the early access and its implications are still under scrutiny, the financial arrangements highlight a novel monetization strategy for the platform. Investors will be monitoring regulatory responses and the platform's ability to sustain such revenue streams.

  • 8/11/2026NEGATIVE
    Trump’s media and crypto firm just posted a $238 million quarterly loss—here’s where those losses came from

    Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) reported a substantial $238 million loss for the quarter, significantly impacted by a decline in Bitcoin's price and substantial merger-related legal expenses. This financial setback has prompted the company to explore new business ventures in an effort to pivot its strategy. The significant losses raise concerns about TMTG's financial stability and its ability to execute on future growth plans, potentially impacting investor sentiment and its stock performance.

  • 8/7/2026NEGATIVE
    Donald Trump’s media company to terminate Crypto.com deal

    Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (TMTG) has announced the termination of its agreement with Crypto.com, a deal that was expected to establish a multibillion-dollar CRO treasury. The company also reportedly will not integrate prediction markets onto its Truth Social platform. This decision signals a potential shift away from cryptocurrency integration and partnerships, which could impact TMTG's diversification strategy and future revenue streams. Investors will be watching for TMTG's alternative plans to drive growth and shareholder value.

  • 7/18/2026NEGATIVE
    Trump monetizing his social media account is ‘odious’ and ‘brazen corruption’ — or an attempt to revive a 70% stock price crash since election

    The article criticizes the monetization of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) as 'odious' and 'brazen corruption,' while also noting its stock price has crashed 70% since the election. This dual framing suggests significant underlying issues with the company's business model and market perception. Investors should be wary of the highly speculative nature of DJT, given the strong negative sentiment and the substantial decline in its valuation, which may indicate further downside risk.

  • 7/17/2026NEUTRAL
    Trump is selling millisecond access to his Truth Social blasts — and traders are already lining up

    Donald Trump's firm, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), is reportedly offering 'Truth PSI' to trading desks, providing millisecond-fast access to posts from 'top' accounts on its Truth Social platform. This initiative aims to monetize the presidency by selling data feeds to high-frequency traders. While the specifics of the deal and its financial impact on TMTG are not yet clear, the move represents a novel revenue stream for the company. Investors will be watching to see if this data access translates into significant financial gains or influences trading patterns for DJT.

via Markets Gazette