Drax Group plc (DRXGF)
被高估基本面
42
价格
$804.50
市值
$2.72B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Drax generates and supplies electricity in the United Kingdom, using biomass — wood pellets it manufactures itself, mostly in North America — to fuel its converted coal power station in North Yorkshire, alongside a portfolio of hydro, pumped-storage and gas plants. It sells the pellets it grows and presses through its own supply chain rather than buying them on the open market, then burns them for baseload power that qualifies as renewable under UK subsidy schemes.
盈利方式
Drax earns money three ways: manufacturing wood pellets, generating electricity from them and from hydro/gas assets, and selling that power — plus power bought from others — to industrial and business customers. Much of its biomass output is government-subsidised through the Renewables Obligation and Contracts for Difference, which fix part of its revenue regardless of the wholesale price; the rest, from flexible gas and hydro generation, is exposed to swings in the wholesale electricity market.
护城河
未发现护城河 · 无Drax sells a commodity — electricity — into a wholesale market where dozens of generators compete on price. Its subsidies fix part of its revenue but do not protect it from competitors; its biomass supply chain and pumped-storage assets lower its own costs without giving it pricing power over customers who can buy power from anyone.
需求驱动因素
中度周期性UK electricity demand itself is fairly stable, but Drax's earnings are not: a portion of its biomass generation is paid a subsidised top-up regardless of the market price, while its flexible gas and hydro plants, and the power it resells to business customers, are exposed to swings in wholesale prices driven by weather, fuel costs and the wider energy market.
主要风险
- Dependence on government support schemes — The Renewables Obligation (ending 2027) and Contracts for Difference arrangements underpin biomass economics; if schemes are not renewed or replaced, that part of the revenue base disappears.
- Biomass sourcing and sustainability rules — Drax operates an extensive biomass sourcing and tracking policy; failing to meet the sustainability criteria that qualify pellets for subsidy support could disqualify part of its output.
- Wholesale power price exposure — Unsubsidised flexible generation is exposed to swings in wholesale electricity prices, mitigated only partly by forward hedging.
- Operational and weather disruption — Grid connection failures, planned outages and asset delays — such as those affecting the Cruachan pumped-storage plant — can cut output at short notice.
看多理由
Buyers argue that subsidised biomass generation gives Drax a predictable cash flow base most power generators lack, that its hydro and pumped-storage fleet is a scarce, hard-to-replicate asset in a system needing more flexible capacity, and that the pellet business insulates margins from fuel-price swings other generators face.
看空理由
Sellers worry that Drax's economics depend on political goodwill that could turn against burning wood for power, that the biomass sourcing and sustainability claims underpinning its subsidies invite scrutiny, and that once support schemes expire the company is left competing on wholesale electricity prices like any other generator.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
SSE is the other large UK-listed generator selling renewable and flexible power into the same GB wholesale market and capacity auctions Drax bids into.
Centrica competes both in GB flexible generation and storage and, through British Gas Business, for the same industrial and commercial electricity customers Drax Energy Solutions supplies.
Enviva is the world's largest industrial wood pellet producer and bids for the same long-term supply contracts with European and Asian power utilities that Drax's pellet business targets.
RWE Generation UK runs a large fleet of gas, biomass and battery plants in Britain, competing with Drax for the same dispatchable power and grid-balancing revenue.
Graanul Invest is Europe's largest wood pellet producer and sells into the same industrial biomass demand from European utilities that Drax's North American plants serve.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$5.05B
截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算
净利润
$18M
截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算
自由现金流
$274M
股东权益合计
$1.74B
负债合计
$1.20B
流动比率
1.07
利息覆盖率
-
债务/EBITDA
1.59
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$351.72
当前价格
$804.50
安全边际
-128.7%
公允价值区间
$228.62 - $474.82
所用估值方法之间的离散区间，并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率（P/E）
14908.59
ROE
0.8%
市净率（P/B）
162.03
P/FCF
993.60
毛利率
25.9%
ROIC
15.2%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造（经济护城河）
ROIC
15.2%
WACC
6.1%
ROIC − WACC
+9.1 pp
ROIC 超过资本成本：公司正在为股东创造价值。
基本面分析标准
通过（9）
- Price CAGR 8.07%
- ROIC 15.2%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Analyst Consensus 65% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 9.5%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 7.25
未通过（11）
- Gross Margin 25.9%
- P/FCF 993.60
- P/B Ratio 162.03
- Operating Margin 4.0%
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- ROE 3.9%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 4.8%
- Net Margin Trend 1.4% vs 8.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
不可用（7）
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-评分
存在严重财务隐患
盈利质量
高质量：盈利有现金流支撑
股权稀释
正在回购股份，对股东友好
机构持股
该公司暂无机构申报数据。
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Dwight Daniel Willard Gardiner | Group CEO & Executive Director | 61 |
| Mr. Frank Hendrikus Lemmink | CFO & Executive Director | 57 |
| Mr. Lee Dawes | Chief Operations Officer | - |
| Mr. Mark Strafford | Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Hillary Berger | Group General Counsel | - |
| Ms. Farnaz Ranjbar | Chief People Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Paul Sheffield | Chief Commercial Officer | - |
| Mr. Tim Cole | Head of Customer Marketing | - |
| Mr. Ross McKenzie | Chief Corporate Affairs & Sustainability Officer | - |
| Hannah Steedman | Chief Strategy & Transformation Officer | - |
审计风险
5
董事会风险
3
薪酬风险
1
股东权利风险
1
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有：它帮助你在基本面说服你之后，选择何时买入。包含：技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
Latest News
Recent headlines for DRXGF, sourced from Markets Gazette.