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Ferrovial SE (FER)

被高估
IndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionNetherlands

基本面

48

价格

$54.10

市值

$39.89B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Ferrovial builds and operates large transport infrastructure: toll highways, airports and construction projects for governments and public agencies. It designs and constructs roads, rail and airport facilities under contract, and separately holds long-term concessions — decades-long rights, granted by governments, to operate a specific highway or airport and collect tolls or fees from it. The concessions, not the construction work, are what the company is ultimately built around.

盈利方式

Construction revenue is booked as work is completed on fixed-price or cost-plus contracts, mostly for public clients, and depends on winning and executing a limited number of large projects. Highway revenue comes from tolls paid by drivers, often linked to inflation or traffic volume under the concession terms, and flows to Ferrovial mainly as dividends from the project companies it partly owns. Airport revenue would work the same way once assets like New Terminal One at JFK become operational; today that project is still under construction and not yet generating toll-like income.

分部营收

Construction80.2%

Building roads, rail and other infrastructure for public and private clients under fixed-price or cost-plus contracts, mostly in North America, Poland and Spain.

Highways14.6%

Toll roads held under long-term concessions, led by North American managed lanes and Canada's 407 ETR, which paid large dividends in 2025.

Energy3.5%

A smaller and more recent line of energy infrastructure projects, still modest relative to construction and highways.

护城河

专利与许可 · 宽阔

Each highway or airport concession is a government-granted, decades-long exclusive right to operate a specific piece of infrastructure — there is no realistic way for a competitor to build a parallel toll road next to an existing one. That legal exclusivity, not brand or technology, is the source of the advantage, and it applies only to the concessions Ferrovial already holds, not to the construction business, which is competitively bid project by project.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Highway toll revenue is fairly steady, tied to driving habits and inflation-linked tariff formulas rather than to the broader economic cycle. Construction revenue is choppier: it depends on how many large public infrastructure contracts are being awarded at a given time and on Ferrovial winning a share of them, which can swing year to year even when the economy is stable.

主要风险

  • Dependence on a small number of large projects — A large share of revenue and profit comes from a limited number of major construction contracts and concessions, so losing a bid, a cost overrun, or a delay on any one of them has an outsized effect on results.
  • Government contracting and regulatory risk — Concessions operate under agreements with governments that can change tariff rules, delay approvals, or in some cases move to buy back or renegotiate the concession, all of which are outside the company's control.
  • New Terminal One execution risk — The New Terminal One at JFK Airport is a large, complex project still under construction and systems integration, with completion phases pushed to later dates; delays or cost increases weigh on the airports business before it starts generating revenue.
  • Geopolitical and macroeconomic exposure — The company points to geopolitical conflicts, inflation, interest-rate volatility and foreign-exchange swings as factors that can affect project costs, financing and the value of assets held in different currencies.

看多理由

Buyers argue that the highway concessions behave like inflation-linked annuities with no realistic competition, that the construction order book at a record €17.4 billion gives years of visible work, and that New Terminal One will eventually add a third durable, concession-like income stream once it opens.

看空理由

Sellers worry that construction remains a low-margin, project-dependent business exposed to cost overruns and government-client relationships, that concession value depends on regulatory goodwill that can turn adversarial, and that New Terminal One's repeated delays show how much execution risk sits between today's spending and tomorrow's cash flow.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A.ACS

The other large Spanish infrastructure group, ACS bids against Ferrovial for the same heavy civil construction contracts and public-private partnership concessions in North America, Spain and Australia, and like Ferrovial it pairs a construction arm with a toll-road concession portfolio.

VINCI SADG

VINCI is the European reference in the same two businesses Ferrovial lives on — building infrastructure and then operating it under long concessions for motorways and airports — and the two meet on the same tenders in Europe and in international airport and toll-road bids.

Sacyr, S.A.SCYR

Sacyr has moved its business toward toll-road and hospital concessions in the same way Ferrovial did, and competes for the same highway concession awards in Spain, Italy and Latin America.

Transurban GroupTCL

Transurban is the closest rival to Ferrovial's Cintra in North American managed lanes, running the 495 and 95 Express Lanes in Virginia next to Cintra's I-66 Express and chasing the same new express-lane concessions in the United States.

Eiffage SAFGR

Eiffage combines a construction business with motorway concessions through APRR, and competes with Ferrovial for European civil works contracts and for infrastructure concessions put out to tender.

ACCIONA, S.A.ANA

ACCIONA bids on the same international transport infrastructure concessions and large civil works as Ferrovial, particularly in Spain, Latin America and Australia, with the same design-build-finance-operate model.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$9.91B

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

净利润

$612M

截至最近已公布季度的最近12个月 — 根据每股指标估算

自由现金流

$890M

股东权益合计

$6.56B

负债合计

$10.66B

流动比率

1.20

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

6.88

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形被高估

公允价值

$43.56

当前价格

$54.10

安全边际

-24.2%

公允价值区间

$28.32 - $58.81

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$75.91
现金流折现法(DCF):$22.26
市盈率法(P/E):$42.11
格雷厄姆成长公式:$15.30
盈利能力价值(EPV):$10.71
合理市净率(P/B):$8.51
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$3.61
P/FFO(运营资金):数据不足,无法计算
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$39.12
分析师共识:买入 (15B / 10H / 2S)
最近财报超预期:+5.26%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

63.70

ROE

11.6%

市净率(P/B)

6.91

P/FCF

44.84

毛利率

69.3%

ROIC

4.7%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

4.7%

WACC

7.8%

ROIC − WACC

-3.1 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(11)

  • Price CAGR 11.97%
  • Gross Margin 69.3%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 10.0%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • ROE 10.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 8.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 56% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 440.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.80

未通过(9)

  • ROIC 4.7%
  • P/FCF 44.84
  • P/B Ratio 6.91
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Net Margin Trend 9.2% vs 35.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

不可用(7)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-评分

2/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

2.80

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

该公司暂无机构申报数据。

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Rafael del Pino y Calvo-SoteloPresident & Executive Chairman67
Mr. Ignacio Madridejos FernandezCEO & Executive Director59
Mr. Ernesto Lopez MozoChief Financial Officer61
Angel Luis SanchezMajor Projects & Operations Director-
Mr. Ignacio del PinoChief Investment Officer-
Mr. Dimitris BountolosChief Information & Innovation Officer-
Silvia RuizInvestor Relations Director-
Ms. Geerte HesenGeneral Counsel, Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Secretary-
Ms. Patricia LeivaDirector of Communication & Corporate Social Responsibility-
Mr. Carlos Cerezo ParedesChief Human Resources Officer50

审计风险

1

董事会风险

5

薪酬风险

1

股东权利风险

3

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

Latest News

Recent headlines for FER, sourced from Markets Gazette.

No recent news for FER.