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First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)

被低估
TechnologySolarUnited States

基本面

88

价格

$175.16

市值

$18.50B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

First Solar designs, manufactures and sells solar modules built with cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film technology rather than the crystalline silicon used by most of the industry, avoiding the polysilicon supply chain that runs largely through China. Its customers are utility-scale developers, independent power producers and utilities that build large solar farms, mostly in the United States. It operates as a single business segment: modules.

盈利方式

Revenue comes from selling physical solar modules under multi-year supply agreements booked well in advance of delivery, which gives First Solar an unusually large order backlog relative to current sales. Manufacturing entirely in the United States also qualifies the company for federal production tax credits tied to domestic content, which lower its effective cost and help it compete on price against lower-cost imported panels.

护城河

成本优势 · 狭窄

Domestic manufacturing plus federal production tax credits give First Solar a cost position against tariff-exposed imported panels that competitors without US factories cannot match, and its CdTe technology sidesteps the polysilicon supply chain entirely. The advantage rests heavily on policy: it would narrow quickly if trade protection or the tax credit regime changed.

需求驱动因素

周期性

Demand comes from large capital projects — utility-scale solar farms — whose financing depends on interest rates, government incentives and utilities' long-term capacity planning, all of which can shift with policy changes or credit conditions. Bookings can also swing when customers renegotiate or cancel contracts, which shows up in First Solar's results as termination payments rather than steady module sales.

主要风险

  • Dependence on policy incentives — The company's cost advantage rests partly on US production tax credits and tariffs on imported panels; a change in either policy area would remove some of the pricing edge it currently has domestically.
  • Concentrated customer base and contract cancellations — A small number of large developers and utilities account for a meaningful share of sales, and contract terminations by customers have already been a source of revenue in recent years rather than a risk avoided.
  • Concentrated supply chain for key materials — Cadmium telluride, substrate glass and specialised manufacturing equipment are sourced from a limited number of suppliers, so a shortage or disruption at one of them can constrain production directly.
  • Capacity built ahead of confirmed demand — The company commits to manufacturing capacity and long lead-time investments before all corresponding demand is firm; if bookings fail to materialise as planned, it carries the cost of underused capacity.

客户集中度

主要客户占营收的21%

In 2025, Silicon Ranch Corporation and NextEra Energy each accounted for roughly 10% or more of net sales, together about a fifth of the total. Losing either relationship would leave a gap not easily filled given how few buyers exist for utility-scale module volumes.

看多理由

Buyers argue that being the largest US-based solar manufacturer positions First Solar to keep capturing policy support and tariff protection that Asian-made panels cannot access, backed by a large multi-year order book that gives unusual revenue visibility for the industry.

看空理由

Sellers fear that a business this dependent on tax credits and trade protection is one policy reversal away from losing its price advantage, and that concentrated large customers who have already shown they will cancel contracts could do so again.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Hanwha Solutions Corporation — Qcells (한화솔루션 큐셀부문)Not tracked

Qcells is the other large solar module maker building an integrated US supply chain, selling domestic-content panels to the same American utility-scale and commercial buyers First Solar serves.

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (晶科能源控股有限公司)JKS

One of the largest crystalline-silicon module makers in the world, with a Florida plant, it bids for the same utility-scale projects that First Solar's thin-film modules target.

Canadian Solar Inc.CSIQ

A global crystalline-silicon module supplier that sells into the same North American utility-scale pipeline and, like First Solar, also develops and sells solar projects and storage.

LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (隆基绿能科技股份有限公司)Not tracked

The world's biggest crystalline-silicon module producer and, through the Illuminate USA joint venture in Ohio, a direct supplier to the US utility-scale market First Solar depends on.

Trina Solar Co., Ltd. (天合光能股份有限公司)Not tracked

A top-tier crystalline-silicon manufacturer competing for the same large ground-mounted installations, where module price per watt and delivery schedule decide the order.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$5.38B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$1.75B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$1.19B

股东权益合计

$9.54B

负债合计

$3.78B

流动比率

2.52

利息覆盖率

46.88

债务/EBITDA

0.09

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形被低估

公允价值

$298.98

当前价格

$175.16

安全边际

+41.4%

公允价值区间

$194.34 - $403.62

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$272.10
现金流折现法(DCF):$232.19
市盈率法(P/E):$149.79
格雷厄姆成长公式:$835.01
盈利能力价值(EPV):$93.85
合理市净率(P/B):$118.51
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):$306.31
周期中段收益:$152.44
市销率法(P/S):$254.81
分析师共识:买入 (34B / 11H / 3S)
最近财报超预期:+35.52%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

10.80

ROE

16.0%

市净率(P/B)

1.82

P/FCF

12.55

毛利率

44.0%

ROIC

12.7%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

12.7%

WACC

14.1%

ROIC − WACC

-1.5 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(25)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 11.42%
  • Price CAGR 19.59%
  • ROIC 12.7%
  • Gross Margin 44.0%
  • P/FCF 12.55
  • P/B Ratio 1.82
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 33.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 18.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 14.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 71% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 13.3%
  • PEG Ratio 0.37
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.23
  • Share Dilution 0.1%
  • Net Margin Trend 32.5% vs 29.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

未通过(2)

  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)

不可用(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-评分

8/9

财务状况强健

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.23

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

0.1%

股份数量稳定

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Mark R. WidmarCEO & Director59
Mr. Alexander R. BradleyChief Financial Officer44
Mr. Jason E. DymbortGeneral Counsel & Secretary47
Mr. Georges J. AntounChief Commercial Officer62
Mr. Kuntal Kumar VermaChief Manufacturing Officer52
Mr. Nathan B. TheurerVP, Global Controller & Chief Accounting Officer44
Mr. Markus GloecklerChief Technology Officer51
Mr. Byron Michael JeffersVP, Treasurer & Head of Investor Relations41
Ms. Caroline StockdaleChief People & Communications Officer62
Mr. Michael KoralewskiChief Supply Chain Officer53

审计风险

5

董事会风险

9

薪酬风险

8

股东权利风险

7

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-02-24

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-07-30

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-07-30

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for FSLR, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 7d agoNEUTRAL
    Le azioni First Solar hanno già toccato un minimo?

    First Solar, a leading utility-scale solar module manufacturer, is at a critical juncture following a significant year-to-date decline. The stock's continued drop has fueled investor debate regarding the impact of prolonged higher interest rates and ongoing political and tax credit uncertainties. GLJ Research recently issued an aggressive price target reduction to $250. With shares trading substantially below historical valuation multiples, market participants are actively questioning whether the clean energy name has found a bottom. The current price action suggests a period of consolidation and uncertainty, with potential for a rebound if market conditions improve or specific company catalysts emerge.

  • 6/9/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $1000 In First Solar Stock 10 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $1,000 in First Solar Inc. (FSLR) stock a decade ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the company's significant growth trajectory. While specific figures are not provided in this snippet, the headline implies a strong performance, likely driven by increased demand for solar energy solutions and the company's technological advancements. Investors considering FSLR should analyze its recent performance, competitive landscape, and the broader renewable energy sector trends to assess future potential.

  • 3/2/2026NEGATIVE
    First Solar's $2 Billion Problem

    First Solar Inc. is facing increasing financial vulnerability, highlighted by its heavy reliance on government subsidies. With an estimated $2 billion problem, the company's profits in the solar energy sector are significantly influenced by these external contributions. This dependency raises concerns among investors regarding the long-term sustainability of First Solar's business model. While subsidies can provide an immediate boost, their potential reduction or elimination could drastically impact the company's profitability and financial stability, making it susceptible to shifts in government policies and market conditions. Analysts suggest caution, given the inherent fragility of a company whose margins are so closely tied to external factors.

  • 2/25/2026NEGATIVE
    Why First Solar Stock Slumped Today

    First Solar's stock experienced a significant slump today, reflecting market concerns regarding the dynamic between the company's expanding production capacity and actual demand. Despite First Solar's efforts to increase its capacity, a key growth driver in the solar energy sector, investors appear skeptical about the company's ability to translate this expansion into a proportional increase in demand. This imbalance suggests that supply might outpace demand in the short term, putting pressure on prices and margins. The negative market reaction underscores the need for First Solar to demonstrate a clear strategy to stimulate demand and ensure that its capacity investments are justified by a sustained order flow, otherwise the stock could continue to suffer.

  • 2/24/2026NEUTRAL
    First Solar (FSLR) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript

    The market is keenly awaiting the details of First Solar Inc.'s financial performance, a leader in thin-film solar modules. Although the release of the Q4 2025 earnings transcript has been announced, key information regarding specific financial results, future projections, or management commentary is not yet available. Investors are in a holding pattern, unable to assess the impact of these results on FSLR's stock valuation. Without concrete data on revenues, earnings per share, or guidance, it is impossible to form a directional judgment. The financial community will closely monitor the full publication to understand the company's trajectory within the dynamic solar energy market.

  • 2/24/2026NEGATIVE
    First Solar Stock Craters As Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates

    First Solar Inc. experienced a significant drop in its stock price following the release of its fourth-quarter earnings report, which fell short of analyst estimates. The discrepancy between reported earnings and market expectations triggered an immediate negative reaction among investors, who are concerned about the company's future prospects in the solar energy sector. This event underscores the critical importance of quarterly performance in determining market confidence and stock valuation. Investors will closely monitor First Solar's next steps to understand how the company plans to address challenges and regain confidence after this setback.

via Markets Gazette