Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE)
被高估基本面
72
价格
$155.25
市值
$12.38B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Guidewire builds the software that property and casualty insurers use to run their core business: issuing policies, processing claims and billing customers. Insurers rent this software instead of maintaining their own aging systems built decades ago. Guidewire hosts it on its own cloud platform, handles the updates, and sells consulting and implementation services to help each insurer configure the system to its own products and rules.
盈利方式
Most revenue is subscription and support fees paid over the life of a multi-year cloud contract, which recur every year the insurer keeps using the system. A smaller, declining share is term licenses for insurers still running the older on-premise version. Services revenue comes from the lengthy, hands-on projects needed to configure and migrate an insurer's policies onto the platform, which can take a year or more per customer.
分部营收
Recurring cloud-hosting and support fees paid by insurers running Guidewire's PolicyCenter, ClaimCenter and BillingCenter systems.
Term licenses sold mainly to insurers still running the older, self-hosted version of the software rather than the cloud platform.
Consulting and implementation work to configure and migrate an insurer's policies, claims and billing processes onto the platform.
护城河
转换成本 · 狭窄Once an insurer has spent a year or more configuring its policies, rating rules and claims workflows inside Guidewire's system, ripping it out means redoing that work on a competing platform while keeping the business running. That friction, more than the software itself, is what keeps existing customers renewing rather than switching to a rival core-systems vendor.
需求驱动因素
中度周期性Insurers buy Guidewire's systems as multi-year technology investments funded from their own IT budgets, which they can defer or accelerate depending on their profitability and how urgently they need to replace aging systems. Demand is not driven by end-consumer spending, so it is less exposed to a typical recession, but a large contract's timing can still slip if an insurer's own results are under pressure.
主要风险
- Reliance on a small number of large customers — The company discloses that a relatively small number of large insurance customers generate a meaningful share of revenue, giving those customers substantial negotiating leverage on price and terms.
- Cloud market may not evolve as expected — Guidewire's strategy depends on insurers continuing to adopt cloud-based core systems; if that shift slows due to cost, security or reliability concerns, renewal rates and new sales could suffer.
- Long and unpredictable sales and implementation cycles — Selling to large insurers and then implementing the software involves lengthy, variable cycles that can take many months or years, making individual deals and their timing hard to predict.
- Competition from other core-systems and cloud vendors — The market for insurance core systems is competitive and changing quickly as customer preferences shift toward cloud deployment, and rivals or new entrants could erode Guidewire's position.
客户集中度
主要客户占营收的22%
In fiscal 2024 Guidewire's ten largest customers together accounted for about 22% of total revenue, giving those large insurers meaningful leverage to negotiate price and contract terms at renewal time.
看多理由
Buyers argue that the shift of large insurers onto Guidewire's cloud platform is still in its early stages, that the switching costs built into a fully configured core system make renewals highly likely, and that subscription revenue growing faster than the rest of the business signals durable, compounding demand.
看空理由
Sellers worry that a small number of very large customers hold real negotiating power over price, that long implementation projects make growth lumpy and hard to predict, and that newer, AI-native software vendors could eventually challenge Guidewire's position in a market it does not yet fully dominate.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Named first among Guidewire's competitors in its 10-K, Duck Creek sells the same cloud policy, billing and claims core suite to the same North American property and casualty insurers.
Sapiens competes for the same core-system replacement contracts, with particular strength among European and Asia-Pacific insurers that also want life and annuity lines on one vendor; it was taken private by Advent International and delisted from Nasdaq in December 2025.
Majesco offers cloud policy, billing and claims platforms aimed at the small and mid-sized carriers Guidewire pursues below its Tier-1 accounts.
Insurity sells competing core and analytics software to North American property and casualty carriers and managing general agents, overlapping directly with Guidewire's product footprint.
EIS pitches an API-first insurance core platform to the same insurers weighing a move off legacy systems, competing deal by deal on the same policy and claims workloads.
Named by Guidewire in its 10-K, Origami Risk sells cloud policy, billing and claims administration to insurers, pools and self-insured programs, competing for the same claims and underwriting budgets.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$1.48B
最近12个月(截至2026/7/31)
净利润
$139M
最近12个月(截至2026/7/31)
自由现金流
$378M
股东权益合计
$1.19B
负债合计
$1.38B
流动比率
1.79
利息覆盖率
11.25
债务/EBITDA
4.02
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$110.10
当前价格
$155.25
安全边际
-41.0%
公允价值区间
$71.57 - $148.64
所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率(P/E)
87.47
ROE
11.7%
市净率(P/B)
9.79
P/FCF
30.96
毛利率
64.2%
ROIC
6.2%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造(经济护城河)
ROIC
6.2%
WACC
9.6%
ROIC − WACC
-3.4 pp
ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。
基本面分析标准
通过(21)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 11.16%
- Price CAGR 11.98%
- ROIC 6.2%
- Gross Margin 64.2%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 10.2%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 10.0%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 14.7%
- Analyst Consensus 86% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 16.2%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.80
- Share Dilution -0.8%
- Net Margin Trend 9.4% vs 5.8%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
未通过(5)
- P/FCF 30.96
- P/B Ratio 9.79
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
不可用(2)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-评分
财务状况强健
盈利质量
高质量:盈利有现金流支撑
股权稀释
正在回购股份,对股东友好
机构持股
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Michael George Rosenbaum | CEO & Director | 53 |
| Mr. John Mullen | President | 52 |
| Mr. Jeffrey Elliott Cooper | Chief Financial Officer | 49 |
| Mr. David F. Peterson | Senior VP, Principal Accounting Officer & Chief Accounting Officer | 64 |
| Mr. James Winston King J.D. | Chief Administrative Officer, General Counsel & Secretary | 53 |
| Mr. Chet Mandair | Chief Information Officer | - |
| Mr. Garo Toomajanian | Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Brian Desmond | Chief Marketing Officer | - |
| Ms. Brigette McInnis-Day | Chief People Officer | - |
| Mr. Steven Sherry | Senior Vice President of Strategic Accounts | 68 |
审计风险
1
董事会风险
3
薪酬风险
4
股东权利风险
2
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
损益历史
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for GWRE, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 6/4/2026NEGATIVEGuidewire Software Posts Better-Than-Expected Q3 Report, But Stock Drops
Guidewire Software reported Q3 results that surpassed analyst expectations, yet the company's stock experienced a decline. While specific figures were not detailed in the provided snippet, the market's reaction suggests that forward-looking guidance or other qualitative factors may have disappointed investors. This divergence between reported earnings and stock performance highlights the importance of future outlook and market sentiment in stock valuation, potentially signaling underlying concerns about future growth or competitive pressures despite current operational successes.
- 3/6/2026POSITIVEThese Analysts Revise Their Forecasts On Guidewire Software Following Q2 Results
Guidewire Software (GWRE) announced robust Q2 financial results, surpassing both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations. The company further bolstered investor sentiment by elevating its fiscal year 2026 financial projections. This positive performance spurred a notable 4.7% surge in its stock price. While analyst sentiment shows some divergence, with price target adjustments in both directions, the company's strong operational execution and optimistic forward guidance suggest underlying strength. Investors should monitor the sustainability of this growth trajectory and the market's reaction to the mixed analyst outlook.
- 3/6/2026NEUTRALGuidewire (GWRE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
The Q2 2026 earnings call transcript for Guidewire Software Inc. (GWRE) has been released. While the specific content is not available, the release of such transcripts is standard practice for publicly traded companies. Investors typically analyze these documents for details on financial performance, future outlook, business strategies, and management's responses to analyst questions. The availability of the transcript allows for in-depth analysis, but without specific content details, the stock's impact remains neutral pending further information.
via Markets Gazette