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Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)

被高估
IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseGermany

基本面

49

价格

$76.96

市值

$8.78B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

HENSOLDT is a German defense electronics maker: it builds the radars, sensors, cameras and targeting optics that let military platforms see, track and aim, rather than making the aircraft, ships or vehicles themselves. Its equipment goes onto programs like the Eurofighter jet, the P-8 Poseidon patrol aircraft, and Leopard 2 tanks, sold mainly to European and NATO armed forces.

盈利方式

Revenue comes from long-cycle defense contracts: governments order equipment years in advance, HENSOLDT books the order as backlog and recognizes revenue as it develops, produces and delivers the systems, followed by years of maintenance and upgrade work on equipment already in the field. Growth therefore shows up first as order intake, which converts into revenue only gradually as programs move from contract to delivery.

分部营收

Sensors83.1%

Radars, air-defence and reconnaissance sensors used on aircraft, ships and ground-based systems, the core of the business.

Optronics16.9%

Electro-optical sighting, targeting and vision systems mounted on land vehicles such as the Leopard 2 and Puma platforms.

护城河

转换成本 · 狭窄

Once HENSOLDT's radar or optronics are integrated into a platform like the Eurofighter or Leopard 2, replacing them mid-program means requalifying a new supplier through years of defense procurement and security clearance processes, which governments rarely choose to do. The trade-off is that this advantage is tied to a small number of large programs, so losing or not winning the next generation of one of them matters a great deal.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Orders follow government defense budgets and multi-year procurement decisions rather than the broader economy, and the company itself credits Germany's elevated defense spending as the main driver of its record 2025 order intake. That makes demand more a function of political and budgetary decisions — which can also reverse or delay — than of a classic economic cycle.

主要风险

  • Dependence on German defense spending — The company attributes its record 2025 order intake mainly to elevated German federal procurement, so a change in Germany's defense budget priorities would directly affect future orders.
  • Concentration in a few large programs — Order intake growth is driven by specific platforms such as the Eurofighter, Leopard 2 and P-8 Poseidon; a shift in any partner nation's procurement plans away from these platforms would reduce expected orders.
  • Export licensing dependency — International sales require export licenses from German and European authorities, whose approval decisions can delay or block contracts that are otherwise ready to proceed.

客户集中度

HENSOLDT does not disclose an exact percentage, but its own 2025 results credit Germany as the key driver of order intake momentum, indicating heavy reliance on a single national defense customer.

看多理由

Buyers argue that a record order backlog built on elevated German and European defense spending gives HENSOLDT years of visible future revenue, and that its equipment being designed into flagship platforms like the Eurofighter and Leopard 2 makes it difficult for those programs to switch suppliers.

看空理由

Sellers fear that growth leans heavily on the German government's current appetite for defense spending, which is a political decision that can change, that revenue is concentrated in a handful of flagship programs, and that export contracts remain subject to licensing decisions HENSOLDT does not control.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月18日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 55.6Score: 59Market cap: $34.66B

Elbit competes for the same optronics, sighting systems and electronic-warfare orders on land vehicles and aircraft, and is an aggressive bidder in the European export tenders Hensoldt targets.

Thales S.A.HO

Thales bids against Hensoldt for the same European air-defence radar, naval sensor, optronics and electronic-warfare programmes, with its Ground Master radars competing head-on with Hensoldt's TRML family.

Leonardo S.p.A.LDO

Leonardo sells radars, avionics and electronic-warfare suites to the same European armed forces and airborne platforms, competing with Hensoldt even though it also holds a large stake in it.

Saab ABSAAB-B

Saab's Giraffe and Erieye radar lines and its self-protection systems chase the same ground-based air-defence and airborne surveillance budgets in Europe and in export markets.

Indra Sistemas, S.A.IDR

Indra supplies radars, electronic-warfare and mission systems to European defence ministries and competes with Hensoldt for the sensor workshare on joint European programmes.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$2.68B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$120M

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$304M

股东权益合计

$889M

负债合计

$1.69B

流动比率

1.10

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

4.88

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形被高估

公允价值

$47.78

当前价格

$76.96

安全边际

-61.1%

公允价值区间

$31.06 - $64.51

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$92.17
现金流折现法(DCF):$23.50
市盈率法(P/E):$35.54
格雷厄姆成长公式:$16.93
盈利能力价值(EPV):$10.69
合理市净率(P/B):$5.11
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$3.91
P/FFO(运营资金):数据不足,无法计算
周期中段收益:数据不足,无法计算
市销率法(P/S):$87.63
分析师共识:买入 (10B / 9H / 1S)
最近财报超预期:+246.53%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

73.08

ROE

12.9%

市净率(P/B)

9.87

P/FCF

28.88

毛利率

21.0%

ROIC

4.3%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

4.3%

WACC

14.6%

ROIC − WACC

-10.4 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(11)

  • Price CAGR 33.11%
  • P/FCF 28.88
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 11.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 15.3%
  • Analyst Consensus 50% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 35.3%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 6.37

未通过(7)

  • ROIC 4.3%
  • Gross Margin 21.0%
  • P/B Ratio 9.87
  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Net Margin Trend 3.6% vs 4.8%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

不可用(9)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-评分

2/9

存在严重财务隐患

score
criteria

盈利质量

6.37

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

该公司暂无机构申报数据。

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Oliver DorreCEO & Chairman of Management Board-
Mr. Christian LadurnerCFO & Member of Management Board48
Dr. Lars ImmischExecutive Officer58
Nicolas DeboveChief Operating Officer-
Ms. Inka TewsChief Human Resources Officer, Labour Director & Member of Management Board54
Ms. Veronika EndresHead of Group Reporting & Investor Relations-
Dr. Katja StadelmannGeneral Counsel-
Ms. Simona PatapMarketing Manager-
Mr. Stefan HessHead of Group Sales & Account Management57
Mr. Temur KarbassiounHead of Customer Service-

审计风险

5

董事会风险

6

薪酬风险

6

股东权利风险

9

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

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