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J & J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)

被低估
Consumer DefensivePackaged FoodsUnited States

基本面

64

价格

$78.07

市值

$1.43B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

J&J Snack Foods Corp. manufactures and sells snack foods and distributes frozen beverages in the United States. Its core products are soft pretzels (SUPERPRETZEL, BRAUHAUS), frozen novelties and ices (DIPPIN' DOTS, LUIGI'S, WHOLE FRUIT, MINUTE MAID under licence), churros (¡HOLA!), handheld items and bakery products such as biscuits, muffins and funnel cake. It also owns the ICEE and SLUSH PUPPIE frozen-beverage businesses, which place and service dispensing machines in cinemas, convenience stores, theme parks and stadiums. The company sells mainly to foodservice operators — restaurants, stadiums, schools, cinemas, snack bars — and to supermarket chains for at-home consumption. Fiscal 2025 ended on 27 September 2025 with consolidated net sales of $1,583.2 million.

盈利方式

Almost all revenue comes from selling physical food and beverage products, case by case, to distributors, foodservice operators and supermarket chains: there is no subscription and no recurring contract revenue. The one structural exception is the Frozen Beverages business, where the company places its own dispensing machines at customer locations and earns money three ways — selling the beverage syrup and cups, selling or leasing the machines, and charging for repair and maintenance on its own and on customer-owned equipment. The 10-K states that equipment sales together with repair and maintenance services accounted for 9% of total annual sales. Pricing power therefore depends on passing through the cost of flour, sugar, dairy, chocolate, packaging and freight.

分部营收

Food Service63.2%

Sells soft pretzels, frozen novelties, churros, handheld items and bakery products to restaurants, stadiums, schools, cinemas, theme parks, convenience stores and snack bars, largely through food distributors. It is the company's largest segment and the one most tied to away-from-home eating.

Frozen Beverages23.3%

Sells ICEE and SLUSH PUPPIE frozen carbonated and non-carbonated drinks, plus the dispensing machines and the repair and maintenance service behind them, to cinemas, convenience stores, theme parks, stadiums and other high-traffic venues.

Retail Supermarket13.5%

Sells branded soft pretzels, frozen novelties and handheld products through supermarket and mass-retail chains for consumption at home. Volumes here depend on shelf space won from the retailer and on promotional support.

护城河

品牌 · 狭窄

The durable advantage is narrow and sits mostly in the Frozen Beverages business: ICEE and SLUSH PUPPIE are long-established names, and because the company owns, places and services the dispensing machines inside the customer's venue, replacing it means physically swapping out hardware and a service relationship, not just changing supplier. In snacks the position rests on recognised brands such as SUPERPRETZEL, DIPPIN' DOTS and ¡HOLA!, but these compete for the same foodservice contracts and the same supermarket freezer space as much larger food groups and as private label, and the 10-K itself describes the markets as highly competitive, with several competitors that have greater financial resources. Raw-material and freight costs are passed through with a lag, which limits how much pricing power the brands really confer.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Demand is only partly defensive. The products are cheap, everyday treats, which helps when household budgets tighten, and the supermarket segment is bought for the home in any weather. But roughly two thirds of sales go through foodservice and much of the frozen beverage business sits in cinemas, stadiums, theme parks and convenience stores, so volumes follow out-of-home traffic: cinema attendance, the sports and events calendar, school sessions and travel. Weather and season matter too — frozen drinks and frozen novelties sell in warm months. The company itself flags seasonality and quarterly fluctuation as a risk factor. The result is a business that does not collapse in a downturn but does track venue footfall and the weather more than a shelf-stable grocery staple would.

主要风险

  • Concentration of sales in a few large customers — The company discloses that its single largest customer accounted for 10% of fiscal 2025 sales and that its ten largest customers together accounted for 46%. Five of those ten are food distributors that resell to many end users. Losing one of these relationships, or a change in its buying terms, would affect a meaningful slice of sales.
  • Cost and availability of raw materials and packaging — The filing lists shortages and price increases in ingredients and packaging among its risk factors. The company cannot always raise prices quickly enough, or at all, to recover higher input costs, which compresses margins.
  • Labour shortages and rising labour costs — The company identifies difficulty in attracting and retaining workers, and increases in wages and in health insurance costs, as risks to its manufacturing and service operations.
  • Competition and capacity constraints in manufacturing and distribution — Risk factors cover highly competitive markets, disruption at manufacturing or distribution facilities, limits on manufacturing capacity, and the availability and cost of transportation — any of which can prevent the company from serving demand profitably.
  • Food safety, product perception and brand damage — The company lists general food-industry risks, product safety perception, brand perception and the acceptance of product changes by consumers. A contamination event or a shift in how consumers see the products would hurt sales directly.
  • Acquisitions and execution of strategic initiatives — The company has grown partly by acquisition and discloses the risk of failing to integrate acquired businesses, and the risk of not executing its announced strategic initiatives as planned.
  • Seasonality and quarterly swings — The filing flags seasonality and quarterly fluctuation as a risk factor: frozen beverage and frozen novelty demand is concentrated in warm months and in venue traffic, so results are uneven across the year.
  • Information technology systems — The company lists failures or breaches of its information technology systems among its risk factors, given its reliance on them for manufacturing, distribution and order management.

客户集中度

主要客户占营收的46%

The 10-K discloses that the ten largest customers accounted for 46% of fiscal 2025 sales, and that the single largest customer accounted for 10%. Five of those ten are food distributors, meaning that behind them sit many separate end users — so the concentration on the invoice is higher than the concentration in actual end demand. Still, nearly half of sales pass through ten buying relationships.

看多理由

Buyers argue that this is a long-established, family-controlled food business with recognisable niche brands — SUPERPRETZEL in soft pretzels, ICEE and SLUSH PUPPIE in frozen drinks, DIPPIN' DOTS in frozen novelties — sitting in categories where it is one of the named players rather than a commodity supplier. They point to the Frozen Beverages model, where owning and servicing the dispensing machines inside cinemas, convenience stores and stadiums makes the company part of the venue's operation rather than a swappable vendor, and where machine and service revenue accounted for 9% of sales. They note that fiscal 2025 revenue grew, with Food Service up 1.6% to $1,001.4 million, and they expect input-cost inflation that squeezed margins to fade while price increases already taken stay in place. They also argue the products are inexpensive indulgences, which historically holds up better than premium discretionary spending when consumers trade down.

看空理由

Sellers fear that growth has effectively stalled: consolidated fiscal 2025 sales were $1,583.2 million, and inside that the Retail Supermarket segment fell and the beverage line of Frozen Beverages fell, with the segment leaning on machine sales to hold up. They point to structural weakness in the position — the company itself describes its markets as highly competitive with larger, better-financed rivals, and its products compete against private label for the same freezer space. They worry about the cost side, where flour, sugar, dairy, chocolate, packaging, freight and wages all move against the company and cannot always be passed through in time. They note that ten customers are 46% of sales and one is 10%, so a single lost distributor or retailer reset hurts disproportionately. And they argue that the Frozen Beverages business is tied to cinema and venue footfall and to hot weather, two things management does not control and neither of which is on a reliable upward trend.

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 2026年9月19日 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 28.0Score: 15Market cap: —

Lancaster Colony supplies frozen breads and yeast rolls to chain restaurants and branded baked goods to supermarket freezers, the two channels that make up most of J&J's sales.

P/E: —Score: 50Market cap: $17.97B

Its Pillsbury frozen dough and North America Foodservice business sells baked snacks and sweet goods to schools, convenience stores and concession operators, J&J's core away-from-home customers.

Rich Products CorporationNot tracked

Rich's sells frozen dough, rolls, pastries and sweet goods to the same foodservice operators, schools and in-store bakeries that buy J&J's soft pretzels, churros, funnel cakes and cookies.

ARYZTA AGNot tracked

ARYZTA is a large frozen-bakery supplier to convenience stores, foodservice operators and retail bake-off counters, competing for the same par-baked and snack-bakery orders as J&J's food service segment.

Wells Enterprises, Inc.Not tracked

Wells makes Blue Bunny and Bomb Pop frozen novelties sold in the same supermarket freezers and concession stands as J&J's Dippin' Dots, Luigi's Italian Ice and Whole Fruit bars.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$1.52B

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

净利润

$49M

最近12个月(截至2026/6/30)

自由现金流

$82M

股东权益合计

$967M

负债合计

$415M

流动比率

2.72

利息覆盖率

56.48

债务/EBITDA

1.22

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形被低估

公允价值

$149.17

当前价格

$78.07

安全边际

+47.7%

公允价值区间

$96.96 - $201.38

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$110.50
现金流折现法(DCF):$347.71
市盈率法(P/E):$46.95
格雷厄姆成长公式:$132.30
盈利能力价值(EPV):$31.73
合理市净率(P/B):$32.72
股息折现模型(戈登模型):$41.25
P/FFO(运营资金):$118.99
周期中段收益:$139.61
市销率法(P/S):$96.36
分析师共识:强力买入 (8B / 1H / 0S)
最近财报超预期:+11.94%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

22.75

ROE

6.8%

市净率(P/B)

1.48

P/FCF

17.36

毛利率

29.7%

ROIC

5.5%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

5.5%

WACC

7.1%

ROIC − WACC

-1.6 pp

ROIC 低于资本成本:公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • ROIC 5.5%
  • P/FCF 17.36
  • P/B Ratio 1.48
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 5.3%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 9.2%
  • Analyst Consensus 89% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 7.6%
  • PEG Ratio 1.03
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.52
  • Share Dilution 0.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

未通过(9)

  • EPS CAGR 2.65%
  • Price CAGR -5.24%
  • Gross Margin 29.7%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • ROE 5.4%
  • Net Margin Trend 4.1% vs 5.5%

不可用(1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-评分

5/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

2.52

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

0.4%

股份数量稳定

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Mr. Daniel J. FachnerPresident, CEO & Chairman65
Mr. Shawn C. MunsellSenior VP & CFO50
Mr. Stephen J. EveryExecutive Vice President of Operations62
Mr. Lynwood M. MallardSenior VP & Chief Marketing Officer56
Ms. Mary Lou KehoeVice President of Human Resources63
Douglas DavidsonSenior Vice President of Bakery Division-
Matthew T. InderliedSenior VP & Chief Customer Officer48
Jay MontgomerySenior Vice President of Supply Chain-
Mr. Aaron WinkelmanSenior Vice President of Sales for The ICEE Company-
Mr. James N. Hamill CPAVP & Controller-

审计风险

9

董事会风险

8

薪酬风险

5

股东权利风险

5

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2025-11-26

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-08-06

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-08-05

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for JJSF, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 8/20/2026NEUTRAL
    J&J Snack Foods CEO on Snack Nostalgia, Turnaround Plans

    J&J Snack Foods CEO Dan Fachner highlighted the company's strategic emphasis on its food service division, which constitutes 60% of its operations. He pointed to significant recovery and growth prospects within experiential venues like theaters, theme parks, and ballparks, where its well-known brands, including ICEE, Dippin' Dots, and Super Pretzel, maintain strong consumer appeal. This focus on nostalgic and impulse-buy products in entertainment settings suggests a stable, albeit not explosive, growth trajectory for the company.

via Markets Gazette