Shopify Inc. (SHOP)
合理估值基本面
77
价格
$148.30
市值
$186.77B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Shopify provides the software that lets merchants, from individual sellers to large retailers, build and run an online store, accept payments, manage inventory and sell across multiple channels including social media and in-person point-of-sale. It does not sell its own products; it earns money by charging the merchants who use its platform. What began as software for small online shops has expanded into a full commerce operating system used by businesses of many sizes.
盈利方式
Revenue comes from two related sources: a recurring subscription fee for access to the Shopify platform, and a variable fee — mainly payment processing — charged as a percentage of the sales merchants make through the platform. The variable component now generates most of Shopify's revenue and grows automatically as merchants sell more, without Shopify needing to sign up a single new customer, giving the business built-in operating leverage as merchant volumes rise.
分部营收
Payment processing, currency conversion, lending and other transaction-based services that scale automatically with how much merchants sell.
Recurring platform fees, point-of-sale hardware and software, and app-store revenue paid by merchants to access Shopify's tools.
护城河
转换成本 · 狭窄A merchant's store, product catalog, customer data, apps and payment history all live inside Shopify, and migrating that to another platform is disruptive enough that most merchants stay put once set up. But new merchants can and do choose a competitor from the start, so the advantage protects the existing base more than it locks out rivals.
需求驱动因素
周期性Shopify's revenue rises and falls with how much consumers spend at the merchants using its platform, which tracks overall retail and e-commerce activity and consumer confidence. New merchant sign-ups also slow when it becomes harder or riskier to start a small business, adding a second, related cycle on top of transaction volume.
主要风险
- Exposure to small-business health — Many merchants on Shopify are small or newly started businesses, which are more likely to fail or cut spending in a weak economy than large, established retailers, directly reducing Shopify's transaction-based revenue.
- Competition from larger platforms — Shopify competes with large, well-funded rivals including Amazon and various point-of-sale and e-commerce platforms, some of which can bundle competing services more cheaply.
- Payments and lending risk — Shopify increasingly extends credit to merchants and processes payments directly, exposing it to loan losses and payment-fraud risk it did not carry when it was purely a software company.
- Platform reliability and security — An outage or security breach affecting Shopify's platform would disrupt sales for every merchant relying on it simultaneously, with reputational and financial consequences across the whole customer base.
客户集中度
主要客户占营收的5%
No single merchant has ever accounted for more than about 5% of revenue in a reporting period; Shopify's base spans millions of merchants across more than 175 countries, so no one customer's decisions move results.
看多理由
Buyers argue that Shopify's shift toward transaction-based merchant solutions revenue lets it grow automatically as merchants sell more, without needing to constantly sign new subscribers, and that its broad, deliberately unconcentrated merchant base reduces the risk of any single customer's decline.
看空理由
Sellers worry that a large share of Shopify's merchants are small businesses especially exposed to a weakening consumer economy, that competition from larger platforms could compress fees over time, and that moving into payments and lending adds credit risk to a business that used to be pure software.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$13.27B
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
净利润
$1.93B
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
自由现金流
$2.01B
股东权益合计
$13.47B
负债合计
$1.72B
流动比率
5.35
利息覆盖率
-
债务/EBITDA
0.12
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$141.31
当前价格
$148.30
安全边际
-4.9%
公允价值区间
$100.32 - $182.30
所用估值方法之间的离散区间，并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率（P/E）
99.53
ROE
9.1%
市净率（P/B）
-
P/FCF
0.00
毛利率
47.8%
ROIC
11.2%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造（经济护城河）
ROIC
11.2%
WACC
18.0%
ROIC − WACC
-6.8 pp
ROIC 低于资本成本：公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。
基本面分析标准
通过（18）
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 41.95%
- ROIC 11.2%
- Gross Margin 47.8%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 13.9%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 15.1%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 31.6%
- Analyst Consensus 77% Buy
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.23
- Share Dilution 0.5%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
未通过（4）
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- Earnings Surprise avg 0.4%
- PEG Ratio 3.21
- Net Margin Trend 14.5% vs 23.4%
不可用（5）
- P/FCF 0.00
- P/B Ratio NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Price below Graham Number
Piotroski F-评分
财务状况强健
盈利质量
高质量：盈利有现金流支撑
股权稀释
股份数量稳定
机构持股
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Tobias Lutke | Founder, CEO, Head of R&D and Director | 44 |
| Mr. Harley Finkelstein | President | 42 |
| Mr. Jeff J. Hoffmeister CPA | Chief Financial Officer | 55 |
| Ms. Jessica Rose Hertz | Chief Operating Officer | 43 |
| Ms. Jean Niehaus | General Counsel | 42 |
| Ms. Shane Kleinstein | Head of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Bharati Balakrishnan | Country Head & Director- India | - |
| Darryl Arvai | VP & Corporate Controller | - |
| Michael L. Johnson | Corporate Secretary | - |
| Ms. Vanessa Lee | Product Director | - |
审计风险
2
董事会风险
7
薪酬风险
10
股东权利风险
10
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有：它帮助你在基本面说服你之后，选择何时买入。包含：技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
损益历史
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for SHOP, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 9d agoPOSITIVELe azioni Shopify rimbalzano: il merito è di Meta Platforms
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) shares are surging following a landmark integration agreement with Meta Platforms (META). The e-commerce giant announced that Meta's new AI personal assistant, Muse, will be integrated into Shopify's ecosystem. This partnership allows Muse users to seamlessly discover millions of independent merchants on Shopify and complete purchases through Shop Pay. The deal is injecting significant momentum into Shopify stock, which has already climbed nearly 20% from its recent low. For investors, this strategic alliance with Meta highlights Shopify's commitment to enhancing user experience and expanding its reach through innovative AI integrations.
- 8/5/2026POSITIVEShopify’s stock heads for best day in a year after the company ‘left no doubt’ about its growth trajectory
Shopify Inc. is poised for its best trading day in a year, with its stock surging following analyst praise for its clear growth trajectory and cost management. The e-commerce platform provider has demonstrated an ability to maintain fiscal discipline while signaling robust expansion trends. This dual approach of controlling expenses and projecting strong future growth has evidently resonated with investors, suggesting a positive outlook for the company's performance and market position. The market's reaction indicates strong confidence in Shopify's strategic execution and its potential for continued success in the online retail space.
- 6/4/2026POSITIVEShopify Boosts Buyback Program To $5 Billion: What Investors Need To Know
Shopify Inc. announced an expansion of its share repurchase program, increasing the authorization to $5 billion. This move signals management's confidence in the company's intrinsic value and its ability to generate strong free cash flow. Investors often view increased buybacks as a positive sign, suggesting that the company believes its stock is undervalued and aims to return capital to shareholders. The news has led to a higher trading price for SHOP shares today, indicating positive market reception to the enhanced capital return strategy.
- 5/29/2026POSITIVEIf You Invested $1000 In Shopify Stock 10 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
An investment of $1000 in Shopify Inc. (SHOP) a decade ago would have yielded a substantial return, highlighting the company's remarkable growth trajectory. While specific figures are not provided in this snippet, the article's premise suggests significant outperformance compared to broader market indices. This historical performance underscores Shopify's success in empowering e-commerce businesses and its strategic positioning within the digital retail landscape. Investors considering Shopify should evaluate its current valuation against its future growth prospects and competitive advantages in the evolving e-commerce sector.
- 5/14/2026POSITIVEKushner’s Thrive Capital Invests $100 Million in Shopify
Thrive Capital, led by Joshua Kushner, has invested $100 million in Shopify Inc., signaling a significant venture capital endorsement for the e-commerce platform. This marks a notable instance of Thrive Capital, primarily known for private investments, taking a stake in a publicly traded company. The investment underscores confidence in Shopify's business model and future growth prospects, potentially attracting further institutional interest and bolstering investor sentiment. For shareholders, this influx of capital and strategic backing from a prominent venture firm could translate into enhanced operational capabilities and market positioning.
- 5/6/2026NEUTRALCathie Wood Dumps $16 Million Of AMD Stock On Post-Earnings Rally, Snaps Up $27 Million Of This Amazon Rival's Stock
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest offloaded $16 million worth of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares following a post-earnings surge. Concurrently, the firm reinvested $27 million into Shopify (SHOP) during its post-earnings decline. This strategic shift indicates a rotation out of AMD's rally and into Shopify's discounted valuation. ARK also reduced its stake in CoreWeave. For investors, this move suggests a belief in Shopify's long-term potential despite recent market fluctuations, while AMD's sell-off might be seen as profit-taking by a major holder.
- 5/1/2026NEGATIVEShopify Analyst Who Saw Selloff Says Too Soon to Buy
An analyst who previously issued a sell rating on Shopify Inc. due to valuation concerns, ahead of a significant price decline, has stated that it is still premature to initiate new buy positions. This cautious stance suggests that despite recent price movements, the underlying valuation concerns may persist, potentially limiting near-term upside for the e-commerce platform's stock. Investors are advised to monitor future earnings reports and market conditions before considering an entry point.
via Markets Gazette