Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
合理估值基本面
61
价格
$31.25
市值
$16.38B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Tractor Supply is the largest US retail chain built specifically around rural life: farm and ranch supplies, animal feed, fencing, work clothing and outdoor equipment, sold through more than 2,600 stores mostly in small towns rather than big cities. Many of its customers are not full-time farmers but suburban and exurban households keeping chickens, horses or a large garden — a lifestyle market rather than a strictly agricultural one.
盈利方式
Revenue comes from selling physical merchandise in stores, with a growing share fulfilled through the website and picked up or delivered from the same store network. Margins depend on running a large, efficient supply chain for bulky, low-margin staples like feed and fencing alongside higher-margin discretionary categories like clothing and seasonal goods, and on keeping stores in towns too small to attract a second dedicated rural retailer.
分部营收
Feed for livestock and horses, poultry supplies, fencing and sprayers and chemicals — the category tied most closely to actual farming and ranching.
Pet food and supplies, mainly for dogs and cats, sold in bulk sizes suited to rural and suburban households.
Lawn and garden equipment, heating and generators, and outdoor recreation items whose demand shifts with the seasons and weather.
Hand and power tools, hardware and truck accessories for maintenance work around a property.
Work and outdoor clothing plus home and gift items, the most discretionary and fashion-sensitive part of the mix.
护城河
规模效应 · 狭窄Tractor Supply's network of small-town stores and the supply chain built to stock them profitably are hard for a new entrant to replicate quickly, and in many of its towns there is no comparably sized rural retailer nearby. That advantage is real but not absolute: general merchandisers, home centers, pet chains and online sellers all compete for pieces of its assortment.
需求驱动因素
中度周期性A large part of the assortment — feed, fencing, basic supplies for animals people already own — is recurring and not very discretionary, which cushions the business in a downturn. But categories like seasonal equipment, clothing and big-ticket outdoor gear are more sensitive to household budgets and weather, so overall demand moves moderately with the economy rather than staying flat.
主要风险
- Competition across many retail formats — The company competes at once with general merchandisers, home centers, pet retailers, regional farm-store chains, farm cooperatives and online sellers, any of which can undercut it in a given category.
- Weather and seasonal sensitivity — Sales of seasonal and recreation merchandise depend on weather patterns being roughly normal; an unusually mild winter or wet spring can directly reduce demand for entire product categories.
- Comparable store sales fluctuation — Growth depends heavily on existing stores selling more each year; a slowdown in comparable sales, from softer consumer spending or local competition, hits results quickly since new-store growth alone cannot offset it.
- Tariffs and import cost exposure — A meaningful part of the merchandise sold is imported, so changes in tariffs or trade policy can raise the cost of goods faster than prices can be adjusted for customers.
- Cybersecurity and system disruption — The company relies on connected point-of-sale, e-commerce and supply chain systems across thousands of locations; a cyberattack or major system failure could disrupt sales and expose customer data.
看多理由
Buyers argue that Tractor Supply's small-town store footprint faces little direct competition locally, that the mix of recurring farm staples and discretionary lifestyle goods has produced years of steady comparable-sales growth, and that the company keeps opening new stores profitably in a niche the biggest retailers do not chase.
看空理由
Sellers worry that comparable-store sales growth has been slowing as the store base matures, that discretionary categories like seasonal goods and clothing are exposed to a squeezed consumer, and that big-box and online retailers keep chipping away at categories once considered Tractor Supply's own.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
资产负债表与流动性
营收
$15.52B
截至2025/12/27的财政年度
净利润
$1.10B
截至2025/12/27的财政年度
自由现金流
$740M
股东权益合计
$2.58B
负债合计
$8.35B
流动比率
1.33
利息覆盖率
21.22
债务/EBITDA
4.44
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$40.97
当前价格
$31.25
安全边际
+23.7%
公允价值区间
$28.42 - $53.51
所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率(P/E)
15.26
ROE
42.5%
市净率(P/B)
6.20
P/FCF
53.11
毛利率
36.4%
ROIC
13.9%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造(经济护城河)
ROIC
13.9%
WACC
5.5%
ROIC − WACC
+8.5 pp
ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。
基本面分析标准
通过(18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 7.85%
- ROIC 13.9%
- Gross Margin 36.4%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 9.5%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 39.3%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 7.9%
- Analyst Consensus 54% Buy
- PEG Ratio 1.64
- Share Dilution -1.4%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
未通过(8)
- EPS CAGR 2.13%
- P/FCF 53.11
- P/B Ratio 6.20
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings Surprise avg -5.8%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.68
不可用(2)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Net Margin Trend (invalid data)
Piotroski F-评分
信号混杂:部分领域需关注
盈利质量
中等:利润与现金之间存在一定差距
股权稀释
正在回购股份,对股东友好
机构持股
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Harry A. Lawton III | President, CEO & Director | 51 |
| Mr. John P. Ordus | Executive VP & Chief Stores Officer | 48 |
| Mr. Jonathan Seth Estep | Executive VP & Chief Merchandising Officer | 45 |
| Ms. Mary Winn Pilkington | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations & Public Relations | - |
| Ms. Amy E. Dahl J.D. | Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary | 51 |
| Mr. Neil Tenzer | Senior VP, Chief Marketing Officer & Pet Health | - |
| Ms. Melissa D. Kersey | Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | 50 |
| Mr. Matthew L. Rubin | Senior Vice President & President of Digital | 44 |
| Mr. Nicole Logan | Senior Vice President & General Merchandise Manager | - |
| Mr. Brad Rogers | Senior Vice President, Real Estate & Construction | - |
审计风险
3
董事会风险
2
薪酬风险
9
股东权利风险
1
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。
损益历史
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for TSCO, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 4/26/2026NEGATIVETractor Supply, Lululemon, and Northrop Grumman Are Among Top 10 Large-Cap Losers Last Week (April 20-April 24): Are The Others In Your Portfolio?
Tractor Supply Company was among the top 10 large-cap stock losers last week, experiencing a significant slide from April 20th to April 24th. This decline is attributed to broader market pressures including earnings misses, weak forward guidance from various companies, and a wave of analyst downgrades across multiple sectors. Investors should note that such broad-based negative sentiment can impact even fundamentally sound companies, signaling potential headwinds for the retail and consumer discretionary sectors.
- 4/21/2026NEGATIVEWhat's Going On With Tractor Supply Stock Today?
Tractor Supply Company experienced a stock decline following its first-quarter financial report, which revealed that both earnings and sales fell short of analyst expectations. Despite reporting modest year-over-year growth and maintaining its full-year financial outlook, the miss in quarterly performance has weighed on investor sentiment. The company's ability to meet future targets will be closely scrutinized as it navigates current market conditions.
- 3/12/2026POSITIVEUnder $50, Is Tractor Supply Stock a Buy?
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is presenting a potential buying opportunity despite near-term sales pressures. The company's strategic focus on non-discretionary items, crucial for the rural lifestyle consumer, positions it favorably for long-term resilience. While current sales may be experiencing headwinds, the pullback in stock price, potentially below $50, could be an attractive entry point for investors. The company's ability to cater to essential needs within its target demographic suggests a robust business model that can weather short-term economic fluctuations, making it a candidate for strategic accumulation.
via Markets Gazette