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Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)

被低估
Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailUnited States

基本面

73

价格

$544.32

市值

$23.46B

第一部分 · 这家公司值多少

概览

Ulta Beauty operates specialty stores across the United States, plus the recently acquired Space NK chain in the UK and Ireland, that sell both mass-market and prestige cosmetics, skincare, haircare and fragrance under one roof, most stores also housing a full-service salon. It competes by carrying a far broader assortment than either a drugstore or a single prestige retailer, and by combining product sales with in-store services and a large loyalty programme.

盈利方式

Net sales of $12.4 billion in fiscal 2025 come mainly from merchandise sold in stores and online, with a smaller and steadier contribution from salon services. Ulta reports as a single business segment and does not break out the split between merchandise, services and e-commerce revenue. Gross margin runs around 39%, helped by the loyalty programme, which drives repeat visits and reduces the promotional discounting typical of beauty retail.

护城河

品牌 · 狭窄

Ulta's loyalty programme has tens of millions of active members whose purchase data lets it tailor offers and keep shoppers coming back instead of switching to a pure online retailer. Combined with a one-stop assortment spanning mass and prestige brands that few rivals match, this creates real customer stickiness, but it does not stop Sephora or Amazon from competing hard on price and convenience.

需求驱动因素

中度周期性

Beauty spending is more resilient than most discretionary retail — a lipstick is a cheap treat even in a weaker economy — but it is not immune: management flagged inflation, elevated interest rates and cautious consumer behaviour as headwinds heading into fiscal 2026, and store traffic can soften when household budgets tighten.

主要风险

  • Intense, low-barrier competition — The beauty retail market has few barriers to entry and pits Ulta against mass merchandisers, specialty retailers, department stores, drugstores and e-commerce players including Amazon and Sephora's expanded footprint through Kohl's stores.
  • Sensitivity to discretionary spending — Inflation and elevated interest rates have already pressured consumer purchases of discretionary items like beauty products, and the company expects these macroeconomic pressures to continue.
  • Dependence on outside vendors — Most merchandise is sourced from third-party vendors; the financial failure or disruption of a significant vendor could leave gaps in the assortment that are not easily filled.
  • Private label brand risk — Ulta's own private-label merchandise exposes it to the sourcing, manufacturing and quality risks that any company selling products under its own name must manage directly.

看多理由

Buyers point to category leadership that combines mass and prestige beauty under one roof with a loyalty base of tens of millions of members driving repeat visits, in-store salon services that a pure online rival cannot replicate, and the Space NK acquisition extending the format internationally.

看空理由

Sellers fear that barriers to entry are low and competitors range from Amazon to a Sephora newly present in thousands of Kohl's stores, that discretionary beauty spending is exposed to a weaker consumer, and that dependence on outside vendors for most merchandise limits control over cost and availability.

Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

资产负债表与流动性

营收

$12.96B

最近12个月(截至2026/8/1)

净利润

$1.21B

最近12个月(截至2026/8/1)

自由现金流

$1.07B

股东权益合计

$2.80B

负债合计

$4.20B

流动比率

1.35

利息覆盖率

-

债务/EBITDA

1.38

每股收益

营收与净利润

自由现金流

收入构成

历史财务表

利润率变化

债务变化

债务负担有多重

增长一览表

增长 — 营业收入

公允价值估算

一般情形被低估

公允价值

$834.55

当前价格

$544.32

安全边际

+34.8%

公允价值区间

$542.46 - $1126.64

所用估值方法之间的离散区间,并非经过统计校准的置信区间。

估算方法

分析师目标价:$630.64
现金流折现法(DCF):$1427.68
市盈率法(P/E):$491.13
格雷厄姆成长公式:$1413.13
盈利能力价值(EPV):$322.50
合理市净率(P/B):$407.48
股息折现模型(戈登模型):数据不足,无法计算
P/FFO(运营资金):$544.19
周期中段收益:$525.03
市销率法(P/S):$515.70
分析师共识:买入 (25B / 8H / 1S)
最近财报超预期:+3.81%

估值指标

市盈率(P/E)

19.90

ROE

41.1%

市净率(P/B)

8.83

P/FCF

20.32

毛利率

39.3%

ROIC

27.2%

盈利能力雷达图

价值创造(经济护城河)

ROIC

27.2%

WACC

8.3%

ROIC − WACC

+18.9 pp

ROIC 超过资本成本:公司正在为股东创造价值。

基本面分析标准

通过(21)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 25.70%
  • Price CAGR 7.87%
  • ROIC 27.2%
  • Gross Margin 39.3%
  • P/FCF 20.32
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 12.5%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 45.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 15.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 74% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 5.2%
  • PEG Ratio 0.37
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.30
  • Share Dilution -5.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

未通过(5)

  • P/B Ratio 8.83
  • CapEx intensity
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Net Margin Trend 9.3% vs 10.3%

不可用(2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage

Piotroski F-评分

5/9

信号混杂:部分领域需关注

score
criteria

盈利质量

1.30

高质量:盈利有现金流支撑

股权稀释

-5.1%

正在回购股份,对股东友好

机构持股

公司治理

管理团队

姓名职位年龄
Ms. Kecia L. SteelmanPresident, CEO & Director54
Mr. Christopher J. DelOrefice CPACFO & Principal Financial Officer54
Mr. Christopher LialiosSenior VP, Controller & Principal Accounting Officer59
Mr. Kelly E. GarciaChief Technology Officer49
Mr. Rene G. CasaresChief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary-
Ms. Anita J. RyanChief Human Resources Officer61
Ms. Kiley F. Rawlins CFASenior Vice President of Investor Relations-
Ms. Kelly MahoneyChief Marketing Officer-
Ms. Amiee Bayer-ThomasChief Retail Officer-
Mr. Erik LopezChief Supply Chain Officer-

审计风险

8

董事会风险

1

薪酬风险

9

股东权利风险

5

第二部分 · 价格与买入时机

这一部分不判断公司是否值得拥有:它帮助你在基本面说服你之后,选择何时买入。包含:技术分析、潜力、历史回撤、Gamma 敞口。

文件

  • 年度报告(10-K)

    对公司业务、财务业绩和风险的年度概述。

    提交日期:2026-03-26

    查看文件
  • 季度报告(10-Q)

    最近三个月财务表现的最新情况。

    提交日期:2026-08-27

    查看文件
  • 临时报告(8-K)

    关于重大事件(如管理层变动或重要公告)的通知。

    提交日期:2026-08-27

    查看文件

via SEC EDGAR

损益历史

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ULTA, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/2/2026POSITIVE
    Ulta Beauty Shares Climb On Strong Q1 Report: Details

    Ulta Beauty Inc. reported a strong first quarter, exceeding analyst expectations and driving its share price higher. The company's performance was bolstered by robust sales growth across key product categories and an increase in customer loyalty program engagement. Management provided an optimistic outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year, citing continued market share gains and effective inventory management. Investors are likely to view this report favorably, anticipating sustained revenue growth and potential for increased profitability, which could lead to upward revisions in price targets.

  • 4/22/2026POSITIVE
    Ulta Beauty Unveils AI Shopping Push With Alphabet Partnership

    Ulta Beauty Inc. is set to gain in premarket trading following the announcement of a strategic partnership with Alphabet Inc. The collaboration will introduce AI-powered shopping tools designed to significantly enhance personalized customer experiences. This technological integration aims to leverage AI for better product recommendations and tailored beauty advice, potentially driving increased customer engagement and sales. For investors, this move signals Ulta Beauty's commitment to innovation and its proactive approach to integrating cutting-edge technology to maintain a competitive edge in the retail beauty sector.

  • 3/16/2026NEUTRAL
    Ulta Stock: Down 24% in Just 1 Month, Is This a Buying Opportunity?

    Ulta Beauty Inc. has experienced a significant 24% stock price decline over the past month, raising questions about its current valuation. Despite reporting strong fourth-quarter sales, the company's cautious forward-looking guidance and observed margin compression have led investors to re-evaluate their positions. This divergence between past performance and future expectations creates uncertainty, making it a critical juncture for the beauty retailer. Investors are now weighing the potential for a rebound against the risks indicated by the shrinking margins and subdued outlook.

  • 3/13/2026NEGATIVE
    Ulta Beauty’s stock heads for worst day in 2 years as consumers get pickier about cosmetics

    Ulta Beauty Inc. experienced a significant stock decline, marking its worst performance in two years. This downturn follows a disappointing earnings outlook, signaling increased consumer selectivity in the cosmetics market. The company's shares were among the top decliners on the S&P 500 index. Investors are reacting to concerns about future revenue and profitability as consumer spending habits shift, potentially impacting Ulta's market share and growth trajectory.

  • 3/12/2026NEUTRAL
    Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript

    Ulta Beauty released its Q4 2025 earnings transcript on March 12, 2026. While the transcript provides detailed insights into the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and outlook, the absence of specific financial figures or forward-looking statements within the provided information prevents a definitive assessment of its immediate market impact. Investors will need to review the full transcript for key performance indicators, management commentary on sales trends, profitability, and any guidance provided for the upcoming fiscal year to form an investment thesis.

  • 3/12/2026NEGATIVE
    Ulta Beauty says it’s ‘increasingly mindful’ of effects that global conflicts have on shoppers, as profit forecast sinks stock

    Ulta Beauty Inc. shares experienced a significant decline in after-hours trading following the company's release of its annual profit and same-store sales forecast, which fell short of Wall Street's expectations. The beauty retailer cited increasingly selective consumer spending patterns and expressed heightened awareness of the impact of global conflicts on shopper behavior. This cautious outlook suggests potential headwinds for consumer discretionary spending, impacting revenue and profitability projections for the upcoming year. Investors are likely reassessing the company's growth trajectory in light of these macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

  • 3/6/2026NEUTRAL
    A Look Into Ulta Beauty Inc's Price Over Earnings

    Ulta Beauty Inc. is a prominent player in the beauty retail sector, known for its extensive range of cosmetics, skincare, and haircare products. The company operates a unique retail model that combines a beauty superstore with a full-service salon. Recent performance indicators and market sentiment surrounding Ulta Beauty are crucial for investors assessing its current valuation and future growth prospects. While specific earnings figures or forward-looking statements are not detailed in this summary, the company's strategic positioning and competitive landscape within the beauty industry are key factors for analysis.

  • 2/23/2026NEUTRAL
    Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Ulta Beauty Stock In The Last 15 Years

    A retrospective analysis of Ulta Beauty's stock performance over the last 15 years highlights the company's remarkable growth, a common theme for businesses that have successfully dominated their niche. While such articles do not provide new, actionable catalysts, they serve to reinforce investor perception of the brand and underscore the long-term strength of its business model. For existing shareholders, it's a validation of their investment thesis. For potential new investors, it serves as a case study on growth potential within the beauty and retail sector. Although past performance is no guarantee of future returns, Ulta's ability to consistently generate value over a decade and a half emphasizes its market leadership and resilience through various economic cycles, a factor the market tends to price in positively.

via Markets Gazette