Zillow Group, Inc. (Z)
被高估基本面
50
价格
$27.34
市值
$6.33B
第一部分 · 这家公司值多少
概览
Zillow runs the most-visited real estate websites and apps in the United States — Zillow, Trulia, StreetEasy and HotPads — where people browse home listings, contact agents, and search for apartments to rent. It does not buy or sell homes itself: it exited that business in 2021 after losing money on it. Instead it earns money from three activities built around that audience: selling leads and advertising to real estate agents, helping landlords list and screen renters, and originating mortgages for buyers who found their home through the site.
盈利方式
Most revenue comes from real estate agents who pay for placement and leads under the Premier Agent program, priced by lead or subscription rather than tied to any single home sale. Rentals revenue comes from landlords paying to list multifamily units and from renters paying application and screening fees. Mortgages revenue is the origination fee Zillow Home Loans earns when it funds a purchase loan for a buyer who found the property through Zillow. None of the three lines requires Zillow to own the property changing hands.
分部营收
Advertising and lead-generation services sold to real estate agents seeking visibility on Zillow's listings — still the core of the business.
Listing fees paid by multifamily landlords plus application and screening fees paid by renters — the fastest-growing line.
Origination fees earned when Zillow Home Loans funds a purchase loan for a buyer who found the home through Zillow.
Smaller lines, including New Construction marketplace advertising, that do not fit the three main segments.
护城河
网络效应 · 狭窄Zillow's audience of home shoppers is the largest of any US real estate site, which is what draws agents to pay for leads — a smaller rival cannot offer the same reach. The advantage stays narrow because multiple listing services feed the same property data to Zillow, Redfin and Realtor.com alike, so an agent can shift ad spend between them at little cost.
需求驱动因素
周期性The advertising revenue that still dominates the business tracks how many homes change hands and how much agents are willing to spend chasing buyers, both of which fall when mortgage rates rise and existing-home sales slow. Rentals and mortgages add some counterweight, since renters keep moving even when buyers wait, but the largest segment still rises and falls with the housing transaction cycle.
主要风险
- Real estate commission structure in flux — Industry-wide settlements over how buyer agents are paid have changed since 2024 and the rules are still shifting; Zillow's advertising revenue depends on agents having commission-funded budgets to spend on leads.
- Sensitivity to mortgage rates and transaction volume — Home sales, and the agent spending that funds Zillow's advertising business, fall when mortgage rates rise or affordability worsens, a cycle largely outside the company's control.
- Competition for agent advertising budgets — Realtor.com, Redfin, and agents' own direct marketing all compete for the same advertising dollars, and an agent can redirect spend elsewhere with little switching cost.
- New mortgage lending business carries credit and rate risk — Zillow Home Loans funds loans directly, exposing the company to interest-rate and credit risk it did not carry when it only referred buyers to outside lenders.
看多理由
Buyers argue that Zillow's audience lead is durable, that Rentals and Mortgages are diversifying revenue away from pure transaction advertising, and that a return to more normal home-sale volumes would flow straight through to the dominant Residential segment.
看空理由
Sellers fear that changes to buyer-agent commissions shrink the budgets agents have to spend on leads, that rivals can reach the same audience through the same MLS data, and that a new mortgage-lending business adds balance-sheet risk to what was once a pure advertising model.
Written by the editors, published on 2026年8月18日
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
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资产负债表与流动性
营收
$2.81B
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
净利润
$55M
最近12个月（截至2026/6/30）
自由现金流
$235M
股东权益合计
$4.88B
负债合计
$801M
流动比率
1.92
利息覆盖率
0.67
债务/EBITDA
2.43
每股收益
营收与净利润
自由现金流
收入构成
历史财务表
利润率变化
债务变化
债务负担有多重
增长一览表
增长 — 营业收入
公允价值估算
公允价值
$21.76
当前价格
$27.34
安全边际
-25.6%
公允价值区间
$14.14 - $29.37
所用估值方法之间的离散区间，并非经过统计校准的置信区间。
估算方法
估值指标
市盈率（P/E）
123.32
ROE
0.5%
市净率（P/B）
1.12
P/FCF
18.64
毛利率
72.9%
ROIC
0.2%
盈利能力雷达图
价值创造（经济护城河）
ROIC
0.2%
WACC
14.6%
ROIC − WACC
-14.4 pp
ROIC 低于资本成本：公司每投入一美元都在毁灭价值。
基本面分析标准
通过（13）
- EPS shows upward trend
- Gross Margin 72.9%
- P/FCF 18.64
- P/B Ratio 1.12
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Analyst Consensus 57% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 5.8%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 7.05
- Net Margin Trend 2.0% vs -2.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
未通过（12）
- Price CAGR -2.38%
- ROIC 0.2%
- Operating Margin 0.4%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Unknown)
- ROE 1.2%
- Revenue Growth 5Y -5.0%
- Share Dilution 9.5%
不可用（2）
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-评分
财务状况强健
盈利质量
高质量：盈利有现金流支撑
股权稀释
正在发行新股，稀释所有权
机构持股
公司治理
管理团队
| 姓名 | 职位 | 年龄 |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Richard N. Barton | Co-Founder & Co-Executive Chair | 57 |
| Mr. Lloyd D. Frink | Co-Founder, Co-Executive Chairman & President | 60 |
| Mr. Jeremy Wacksman | CEO & Director | 48 |
| Mr. Jeremy Hofmann | COO & CFO | 39 |
| Mr. David A. Beitel | Chief Technology Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Bradley Allen Berning | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Cassandra Knight | Chief Legal & Policy Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Dan Spaulding | Chief People Officer | 48 |
| Mr. Errol G. Samuelson | Chief Industry Development Officer | 59 |
审计风险
3
董事会风险
9
薪酬风险
10
股东权利风险
10
第二部分 · 价格与买入时机
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损益历史
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for Z, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 15d agoNEGATIVEZillow Loses Antitrust Battle Over Chicago Area Listing Feed
Zillow Group Inc. has lost a crucial antitrust legal battle in Illinois, failing to secure access to the Chicago area's largest real estate listing feed. This ruling prevents Zillow from obtaining proprietary data from the provider, potentially impacting its market intelligence and competitive positioning in the region. The decision could limit Zillow's ability to offer comprehensive and up-to-date property information, a core aspect of its business model. Investors will monitor Zillow's strategy to overcome this data access hurdle and its potential financial implications.
- 8/5/2026POSITIVEZillow’s Revenue Jumps as Rentals Offer ‘Bright Spot’
Zillow Group Inc. reported a significant 18% year-over-year increase in second-quarter revenue, reaching $772 million. The company highlighted its rentals segment as a 'bright spot,' with rental agreements growing at a faster pace than home purchases on its platform. This robust performance in the rental market suggests Zillow's diversified business model is effectively capitalizing on current real estate trends, potentially signaling strong future growth and increased user engagement across its services. Investors may view this as a positive indicator of the company's adaptability and market position.
- 7/8/2026NEGATIVEZillow, Rocket to Face August FTC Trial Over Rental-Listing Deal
Zillow Group Inc. and Rocket Companies Inc.'s Redfin will face an August trial concerning their rental-listing partnership, as a Virginia judge denied the FTC's early ruling request. This legal challenge introduces significant uncertainty for Zillow's strategic alliances and could impact its market position in the rental sector. Investors will be closely watching the proceedings for potential regulatory hurdles that might affect future business development and profitability.
- 5/6/2026NEGATIVEZillow Shares Drop As Profit View Misses On Legal, Ad Costs
Zillow Group Inc. experienced a significant decline of up to 9% in after-hours trading following the release of its second-quarter profit forecast. The company anticipates profits below Wall Street's consensus estimates, attributing the shortfall to increased legal expenditures and higher advertising costs. Furthermore, a stagnant housing market is contributing to the subdued outlook. For investors, this forecast suggests potential headwinds for Zillow's profitability in the near term, raising concerns about revenue generation and cost management strategies.
- 3/7/2026POSITIVE$30K Boost in Buying Power Reshapes Home Market for Aspiring Buyers
A median-income U.S. household now possesses the buying power for a home valued at $331,483, an increase of $30,302 from the previous year. This marks the most favorable affordability condition since March 2022, according to Zillow Group Inc. The enhanced purchasing capacity for aspiring homeowners suggests a potential uptick in demand for real estate, which could positively influence related market segments and companies like Zillow, which are integral to the housing transaction process.
via Markets Gazette