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Autozone Inc (AZO)

Fair Value
Consumer CyclicalAuto PartsUnited States

Fundamental

74

Price

$2830.02

Market Cap

$47.12B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

AutoZone is a retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the Americas. At August 30, 2025 it operated 7,657 stores: 6,627 in the United States, 883 in Mexico and 147 in Brazil. The stores sell hard parts (brakes, batteries, alternators, starters, engine and driveline components), maintenance items (oil, filters, wipers, fluids) and accessories, mostly for cars and light trucks that are out of warranty. Alongside the walk-in do-it-yourself customer, AutoZone runs a commercial delivery programme — active in 6,098 of its domestic stores at fiscal year end, and in the vast majority of its Mexican and Brazilian stores — that sells and delivers parts to independent repair shops, dealers and fleets. It also sells online through autozone.com and autozonepro.com and licenses ALLDATA, a subscription software product for diagnostic, repair, collision and shop-management data used by professional workshops. Net sales were $18.9 billion in fiscal 2025 (year ended 30 August 2025).

How it makes money

Revenue is overwhelmingly the retail sale of physical parts at the moment of purchase: a customer's part fails, they walk into a store or a repair shop orders a delivery, and AutoZone books the sale at a gross margin that is high for retail because availability, not price, is what the buyer is paying for. Two channels run through the same stores and the same inventory: DIY, where the car owner does the work, and commercial (DIFM, 'do it for me'), where AutoZone delivers to professional repair shops and extends them credit. A much smaller stream is recurring: ALLDATA software subscriptions and e-commerce. Growth comes from opening new stores, from same-store sales, and from densifying the hub and mega-hub network that lets a local store get an uncommon part into a customer's hands the same day. The filing does not break out the dollar or percentage contribution of the DIY, commercial, e-commerce and ALLDATA channels.

Competitive moat

Scale · Narrow

AutoZone's advantage is distribution density rather than brand or technology. A repair only happens when the right part — out of hundreds of thousands of applications across decades of vehicle models — is physically close by, and a network of 7,657 stores backed by hubs and mega-hubs makes that possible at a cost per store that a smaller chain cannot match. Scale also shows in purchasing: the company is a large enough buyer that its terms with suppliers are hard to replicate. The advantage is real but not unassailable: O'Reilly, Advance Auto Parts, dealers, mass merchants and online sellers compete for the same customer, and AutoZone's own risk factors name competition and possible market-share loss explicitly.

What drives demand

Defensive

Most of what AutoZone sells is bought because something broke or has to be replaced to keep a car on the road — a brake pad, a battery, an alternator. That spending is postponed, not cancelled, and it holds up better than most retail when household budgets tighten; a weak economy can even help, because owners keep older cars longer and repair them instead of buying new ones. The underlying drivers are the size and average age of the vehicle fleet and the miles driven on it, both of which move slowly. The parts of the business that are genuinely discretionary — accessories, appearance products — are a smaller share and behave more cyclically, and AutoZone's own risk factors acknowledge that demand can slow.

Key risks

  • Demand for parts can slow — AutoZone lists a slowdown in demand for its products among its risk factors. Demand depends on the number, age and miles of vehicles on the road and on how much owners choose to spend keeping them running — none of which the company controls.
  • Competition and market share — The company discloses the risk of competitive pressure and of losing market share, and separately the risk that the commercial (professional) market proves harder to grow profitably than expected. The commercial channel is where AutoZone is chasing growth and where competitors are strongest.
  • Sustaining the historic growth rate — Among its risk factors AutoZone names the difficulty of sustaining its historic growth rate, which depends on opening new stores in the United States, Mexico and Brazil and on executing that expansion well.
  • Foreign sourcing, tariffs and supply chain — The filing flags risks from international sourcing and tariff exposure, from merchandise quality and pricing, and from disruption of the supply chain and distribution network. Supplier concentration is real: in fiscal 2025 a single vendor provided 13 percent of total purchases.
  • International operations and the geopolitical backdrop — AutoZone states that the current global economic and geopolitical landscape has increased uncertainty about doing business internationally and may hurt its business, and separately lists the challenge of managing international operations in Mexico and Brazil.
  • People, IT systems and data — The company depends on hiring, training and retaining store employees, and lists a separate group of risks covering failure or interruption of its information technology systems, cyber-attacks on sensitive personal and confidential information, and the growing complexity of data privacy regulation.

Customer concentration

AutoZone does not disclose any customer concentration, and for a retailer with 7,657 stores serving millions of individual motorists and thousands of independent repair shops there is no single customer of consequence. The concentration the filing does disclose is on the other side of the business: in fiscal 2025 one class of similar products accounted for about 14 percent of total revenues and one vendor supplied 13 percent of total purchases.

The case for

Buyers argue that AutoZone sells something people cannot easily put off — a working car — through a store network that is very hard to rebuild, and that the aging vehicle fleet keeps feeding repair demand. They point to a business that needs little capital beyond new stores, to gross margins protected by the fact that a stranded motorist pays for availability rather than shopping on price, and to a long record of buying back shares with the cash the stores throw off. They also see the commercial channel and the Mexican and Brazilian stores as room to keep opening locations for years, and expect scale in purchasing and distribution to keep widening the gap against smaller chains.

The case against

Sellers fear that the growth is running out of easy ground: the domestic store base is already dense, the commercial channel where AutoZone is pushing hardest is the one the company itself warns may be harder to grow profitably, and O'Reilly and the dealers compete there head-on. They worry about cost pressure the company does not control — tariffs and foreign sourcing, with 13 percent of purchases from a single vendor, plus wage and freight inflation — and about a Mexican and Brazilian business that adds currency and political exposure. Some point to the heavy use of debt to fund buybacks, which leaves little cushion if same-store sales stall, and to the possibility that better-built vehicles and, over time, electric powertrains with fewer wearing parts shrink the repair market that the whole thesis rests on.

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 27.1Score: 74Market cap: $69.76B

The closest national rival, running a comparable US store network that sells the same aftermarket parts to both walk-in DIY customers and professional repair shops.

P/E: 483.6Score: 49Market cap: $17.66B

Through its NAPA network it is the main supplier to professional repair shops, the same do-it-for-me customers AutoZone courts with its commercial business.

P/E: 12.8Score: 62Market cap: $5.82B

Distributes alternative and recycled replacement parts to the same repair shops, competing for the commercial parts orders AutoZone delivers.

P/E: 20.0Score: 77Market cap: $2.69T

Its online marketplace sells the same batteries, filters and accessories directly to DIY motorists, the channel AutoZone's own 10-K names among its competitors.

P/E: 37.7Score: 58Market cap: $853.59B

Its stores carry oil, batteries and maintenance items at mass-merchant prices, taking the routine DIY purchases that would otherwise go to an AutoZone store.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.AAP

The third large US parts chain, with stores in the same towns competing for the same DIY shoppers and the same commercial delivery accounts.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$19.99B

Trailing 12 months (through 5/9/2026)

Net Income

$2.48B

Trailing 12 months (through 5/9/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$1.79B

Total Equity

$-3.41B

Total Liabilities

$22.77B

Current Ratio

0.89

Interest Coverage

7.37

Debt/EBITDA

2.99

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

CyclicalFairly Valued

Fair Value

$3084.51

Current Price

$2830.02

Margin of Safety

+8.3%

Fair Value Range

$2526.36 - $3642.66

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$3709.17
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):$2478.09
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):$2212.66
Justified P/B:Not applicable to this type of company
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not applicable to this type of company
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:$3203.54
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (26B / 6H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+3.03%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

19.46

ROE

-73.2%

P/B Ratio

-

P/FCF

28.29

Gross Margin

51.8%

ROIC

26.2%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

26.2%

WACC

7.0%

ROIC − WACC

+19.2 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (20)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 17.00%
  • Price CAGR 13.80%
  • ROIC 26.2%
  • Gross Margin 51.8%
  • P/FCF 28.29
  • Operating Margin 18.0%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 249.3%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.8%
  • Analyst Consensus 81% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.85
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.24
  • Share Dilution -3.1%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (4)

  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg 0.6%
  • Net Margin Trend 12.4% vs 13.6%

Unavailable (4)

  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.24

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-3.1%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Philip B. Daniele IIICEO, President & Director56
Mr. Thomas B. NewbernChief Operating Officer of Customer Satisfaction63
Mr. Kenneth E. Jaycox Jr.Senior VP of Commercial & Customer Satisfaction57
Mr. John Scott MurphyPrincipal Accounting Officer, VP of Customer Satisfaction & Controller52
Ms. Michelle K. BorninkhofSenior VP & Chief Information Officer of Customer Satisfaction51
Mr. Brian L. CampbellVice President of Tax, Treasury & Investor Relations-
Ms. Jennifer M. BedsoleSenior VP, General Counsel, Secretary & Customer Satisfaction54
Mr. Eric S. GouldExecutive Vice President of Merchandising, Marketing & Supply Chain56
Mr. Eric J. LeefSenior Vice President of HR & Customer Satisfaction51
Mr. Domingo Jose Hurtado RodriguezSenior VP of International & Customer Satisfaction64

Audit Risk

5

Board Risk

7

Compensation Risk

3

Shareholder Rights Risk

4

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2025-10-27

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-06-12

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-22

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for AZO, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 9d agoNEUTRAL
    Il titolo AutoZone è sceso del 31%: gli utili possono spezzare il pessimismo?

    AutoZone is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, with Wall Street anticipating a challenging period. The stock closed at $2,803.25, down 1.82% and near its 52-week low, reflecting a 31% decline from a year ago. Analysts project earnings per share of approximately $54.30 on revenue around $6.71 billion. Despite downward estimate revisions from some firms, positive ratings persist. AutoZone has faced headwinds from a weakening consumer, particularly impacting its DIY customer segment due to fuel costs. The upcoming earnings report is crucial for potentially shifting investor sentiment from pessimism.

  • 5/27/2026NEGATIVE
    AutoZone Enjoys 'Best Quarter In Some Time' But Misses Expectations: Analysts

    AutoZone Inc. experienced a stock decline following its Q3 earnings report, despite the company's internal assessment of a 'best quarter in some time.' While specific figures were not provided in the summary, the market's reaction suggests the results fell short of investor expectations. However, analysts from Guggenheim and DA Davidson have maintained their 'Buy' ratings, indicating a continued belief in the company's long-term prospects. This divergence between market sentiment and analyst outlook presents a complex picture for investors.

  • 5/26/2026NEGATIVE
    AutoZone Says Repair Business Remains 'Pretty Inelastic' As Consumers Cut Back Elsewhere

    AutoZone Inc. (AZO) shares plunged to a 52-week low following its Q3 earnings report, despite the company surpassing profit expectations. Revenue climbed 8.4% year-over-year to $4.84 billion, exceeding analyst forecasts. Management commented that the auto repair business remains 'pretty inelastic,' suggesting resilience as consumers reduce spending in other areas. However, the stock's sharp decline indicates that market sentiment is focused on broader economic concerns or potential future headwinds, overshadowing the company's current performance.

  • 5/26/2026NEUTRAL
    AutoZone, Zscaler And 3 Stocks To Watch Heading Into Tuesday

    U.S. stock futures are showing gains as investors anticipate a slate of quarterly earnings reports, including those from AutoZone, Elbit Systems, SCYNEXIS, Box, and Zscaler, scheduled for release after Tuesday's market close. AutoZone, a leading auto parts retailer, is expected to provide insights into consumer spending trends and the automotive aftermarket's resilience. Investors will be scrutinizing the company's revenue growth, same-store sales, and profit margins for indications of its performance in the current economic environment. The results could influence sentiment for other retail and automotive sector stocks.

  • 3/11/2026NEUTRAL
    Recent Filing Shows That Sen. Markwayne Mullin Sold Over $65K Worth of AutoZone Stock

    Senator Markwayne Mullin's recent filing revealed a sale of AutoZone Inc. stock valued at over $65,000. The transaction occurred on March 11, 2026. While insider selling can sometimes signal a lack of confidence, the relatively small size of this particular transaction, especially for a public official, may not indicate a strong directional view on the company's future performance. Investors will likely monitor further filings for any patterns or larger sales that could provide a clearer signal.

  • 3/3/2026NEGATIVE
    Why Is AutoZone Stock Falling Tuesday?

    AutoZone disappointed analysts in the second quarter, reporting a decline in earnings and revenue below estimates. Despite steady same-store sales growth, profit margins narrowed, signaling pressure on costs or pricing. This performance triggered a negative market reaction, with the company's shares falling. Investors should closely monitor AutoZone's next moves to understand how it plans to address narrowing margins and whether sales growth will be sufficient to offset declining profitability. The news suggests potential short-term weakness for the stock.

  • 3/3/2026NEUTRAL
    AutoZone (AZO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

    Investors are awaiting the details of AutoZone's (AZO) Q2 2026 earnings call, scheduled for March 3, 2026. While the specific content of the transcript is not yet available, earnings calls are critical market events, providing direct insights into financial performance, future outlook, and corporate strategies. Management statements, sales figures, profit margins, and forecasts for upcoming quarters are elements that can significantly influence investor sentiment and stock valuation. The absence of immediate information keeps the stock in a holding pattern, with market participants closely monitoring any updates for potential directional signals.

via Markets Gazette