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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)

Fair Value
Consumer CyclicalAuto PartsUnited States

Fundamental

75

Price

$84.29

Market Cap

$69.76B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

O'Reilly Automotive sells replacement auto parts, tools, supplies and accessories through a large chain of retail stores backed by its own distribution network. It serves two very different customers with the same stores: everyday drivers fixing their own cars, and professional repair shops that need a part delivered within the hour to finish a job. Owning the distribution chain rather than relying on outside wholesalers is what lets it promise that speed.

How it makes money

Revenue is booked at the point of sale, whether over the counter to a walk-in customer or delivered to a professional repair shop's account. The DIY and professional halves of the business are roughly equal in size but behave differently: DIY sales follow store traffic and weather-driven repair needs, while professional sales depend on account relationships and, above all, on how fast O'Reilly can get the right part to a shop, which is what its hub-and-distribution-center network is built to deliver.

Revenue by segment

DIY Retail50%

Parts and accessories sold over the counter to individual customers repairing their own vehicles.

Professional Service Provider50%

Parts sold and delivered to professional repair shops and service technicians, O'Reilly's fastest-growing customer group.

Competitive moat

Scale · Narrow

A dense network of stores layered on regional distribution centers lets O'Reilly promise same-day or next-day parts availability that a small independent parts store cannot match, and that scale is expensive and slow for a new entrant to replicate. The advantage is real but not exclusive: a handful of comparably sized national chains run the same playbook, so no single player owns a durable edge.

What drives demand

Defensive

Cars break down regardless of the economy, and an aging vehicle fleet on the road tends to need more parts over time, which makes demand fairly resistant to downturns; some drivers even shift from buying a new car to repairing an older one when money is tight, which can help O'Reilly. Store growth and comparable sales still track broader consumer spending at the margin.

Key risks

  • Macroeconomic sensitivity of customers — The company cites inflation, consumer debt levels and general economic conditions as risks: deteriorating conditions can reduce product demand, limit customer and supplier access to credit, and cause financial hardship across the business.
  • Tariffs and trade policy — O'Reilly relies in part on imported parts, and new or increased tariffs raise costs and require further diversification of its supply chain, a process the company itself describes as ongoing rather than complete.
  • Intense competition in a fragmented market — The automotive aftermarket remains highly fragmented, and O'Reilly competes against comparably resourced national retailers as well as many independent and online sellers, limiting its pricing power.
  • Capital-intensive expansion — Growth depends on continuing to open new stores and expand the distribution network at a steady pace, which requires ongoing capital spending and execution; a slowdown in store openings would directly slow revenue growth.

The case for

Buyers argue that O'Reilly's distribution density gives it a durable speed advantage with professional customers, that an aging US vehicle fleet supports steady parts demand regardless of new-car sales, and that a long track record of disciplined store expansion and share buybacks has compounded returns for shareholders for decades.

The case against

Sellers fear that O'Reilly competes against equally well-capitalized national rivals with no clear way to widen the gap, that tariffs on imported parts squeeze margins the company cannot fully offset with price increases, and that continued growth increasingly depends on opening stores in markets it knows less well, including outside the United States.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 19.5Score: 67Market cap: $47.56B

O'Reilly names AutoZone first among its competitors in its 10-K: the two run the largest US networks of auto parts stores and fight store-by-store for the same DIY motorists and the same professional repair shops.

P/E: 483.6Score: 46Market cap: $17.66B

Genuine Parts owns the NAPA network that O'Reilly's 10-K names as a competitor, and its distribution to independent garages goes head-to-head with O'Reilly's professional-installer business.

P/E: 12.8Score: 65Market cap: $5.82B

LKQ supplies aftermarket, recycled and specialty replacement parts to the same North American collision and mechanical repair shops that make up O'Reilly's professional customer base.

P/E: 20.0Score: 69Market cap: $2.69T

O'Reilly's 10-K names Amazon among the online retailers it competes with, because DIY customers can order the same parts and accessories online instead of walking into a store.

P/E: 37.7Score: 49Market cap: $853.59B

O'Reilly's 10-K lists Walmart among the mass merchandisers that take away sales of oil, batteries, wipers and other high-turnover maintenance items bought by DIY motorists.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc.AAP

Advance Auto Parts is the third national auto parts chain named in O'Reilly's 10-K, selling the same replacement parts from stores in the same American towns and to the same professional installers.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$18.57B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$2.65B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$1.59B

Total Equity

$-763M

Total Liabilities

$17.30B

Current Ratio

0.75

Interest Coverage

14.37

Debt/EBITDA

2.41

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

CyclicalFairly Valued

Fair Value

$72.51

Current Price

$84.29

Margin of Safety

-16.2%

Fair Value Range

$47.79 - $97.22

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$107.80
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):$76.09
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):$43.28
Justified P/B:Not applicable to this type of company
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not applicable to this type of company
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:$59.76
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (29B / 7H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:-2.25%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

27.11

ROE

-332.5%

P/B Ratio

-

P/FCF

32.04

Gross Margin

51.6%

ROIC

36.7%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

36.7%

WACC

7.3%

ROIC − WACC

+29.4 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 16.56%
  • ROIC 36.7%
  • Gross Margin 51.6%
  • Operating Margin 19.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 423.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 8.9%
  • Analyst Consensus 81% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.24
  • Share Dilution -3.0%
  • Net Margin Trend 14.3% vs 14.2%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (5)

  • EPS CAGR 4.18%
  • P/FCF 32.04
  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.1%

Unavailable (5)

  • P/B Ratio NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.24

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-3.0%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Gregory L. HensleeExecutive Chairman64
Mr. Brad W. BeckhamChief Executive Officer46
Mr. David E. O'ReillyExecutive Vice Chairman75
Mr. Brent G. KirbyPresident56
Mr. Jeremy Adam Fletcher CPAExecutive VP & CFO47
Mr. Scott Richard RossExecutive VP & Chief Information Officer59
Mr. Jason Lee TarrantExecutive Vice President of Store Operations & Sales44
Ms. Tamara F. ConnSenior VP of Legal & General Counsel54
Ms. Shari Lynne ReavesSenior Vice President of Human Resources & Training54
Mr. Robert Allen DumasSenior Vice President of Eastern Store Operations & Sales51

Audit Risk

10

Board Risk

8

Compensation Risk

8

Shareholder Rights Risk

7

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-27

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-07

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-08-14

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ORLY, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 3/5/2026POSITIVE
    Can O'Reilly Automotive Stock Beat the Market?

    O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) has demonstrated exceptional performance over the past five years, with its shares more than tripling in value. This positive trend indicates strong growth and solid business management within the auto parts retail sector. For investors, this suggests a potential continuation of the upward trajectory, supported by consistent demand for vehicle maintenance and repair, making the stock an attractive candidate for a growth-oriented portfolio.

via Markets Gazette