Evolution AB (publ) (EVGGF)
Fair ValueFundamental
60
Price
$781.60
Market Cap
$153.55B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Evolution supplies live-dealer casino games and computer-generated (RNG) casino games to online gambling operators around the world, rather than running its own casino or taking bets from consumers directly. It builds and staffs television-style studios where real dealers run roulette, blackjack and game-show-style formats streamed live to players on partner websites, and separately develops slot-style games generated entirely by software. Its customers are the licensed gambling operators who put Evolution's games on their own platforms.
How it makes money
Evolution is paid a share of the betting revenue its games generate for the gambling operators that license them — a business-to-business model with no direct consumer transactions or marketing spend of its own. Most of that revenue still comes from live-dealer games, the format the company pioneered and where its studio scale is hardest to replicate; a smaller and growing share comes from RNG games following recent studio acquisitions. Full-year 2025 group revenue was essentially flat at €2.07 billion.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowRunning live-dealer studios profitably requires enough volume across many tables and languages to spread fixed costs like staffing, real estate and broadcast technology — a scale advantage the largest live-casino supplier holds over smaller rivals. It is not unassailable: RNG games face lower barriers to entry, and gambling operators can and do work with more than one games supplier at once.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalDemand follows overall online gambling activity, which grows steadily with internet penetration and the legalization of regulated online gambling in new markets, but is less tied to the broader economic cycle than most consumer sectors since gambling spending persists in downturns. Regulatory swings in individual countries — new taxes, advertising limits or market restrictions — can move revenue faster than the economic cycle does.
The case for
Buyers argue that Evolution's live-dealer studio scale and first-mover advantage are difficult for smaller suppliers to replicate, that legalization of regulated online gambling in new markets extends its growth runway, and that a business-to-business licensing model without direct consumer acquisition costs supports high margins.
The case against
Sellers worry that 2025's roughly flat revenue points to a maturing core live-casino market in its largest regions, that regulatory tightening in individual European markets can remove revenue with little warning, and that RNG games face lower barriers to entry than the live-dealer format that built the company's lead.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Through Authentic Gaming and its iGaming content division, Light & Wonder supplies live roulette and online casino games to the same operators in the United States and Europe.
Playtech is the other large B2B supplier selling live dealer tables and online casino content to the same licensed operators Evolution serves across Europe and regulated markets.
Privately held Pragmatic Play moved from slots into live dealer studios and is the fastest-growing challenger for the same operator contracts and player time.
The private company formerly known as Microgaming competes on both fronts, with the OnAir Entertainment live studios and a large slot catalogue sold to the same operators.
The Dutch private supplier built its own live casino studios and sells them to the same European operators, competing directly for table placement in the online lobby.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$1.95B
Trailing 12 months to the last reported quarter — estimated from per-share metrics
Net Income
$974M
Trailing 12 months to the last reported quarter — estimated from per-share metrics
Free Cash Flow
$915M
Total Equity
$3.99B
Total Liabilities
$90M
Current Ratio
2.04
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.07
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$832.87
Current Price
$781.60
Margin of Safety
+6.2%
Fair Value Range
$541.36 - $1124.37
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
146.91
ROE
26.7%
P/B Ratio
35.83
P/FCF
167.74
Gross Margin
100.0%
ROIC
22.8%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
22.8%
WACC
8.0%
ROIC − WACC
+14.8 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (12)
- Price CAGR 31.33%
- ROIC 22.8%
- Gross Margin 100.0%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 58.8%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- ROE 25.9%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 30.4%
- PEG Ratio 0.50
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.23
Failed (9)
- P/FCF 167.74
- P/B Ratio 35.83
- CapEx intensity
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Analyst Consensus 20% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 1.4%
- Net Margin Trend 51.4% vs 60.3%
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Unavailable (6)
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
No institutional filings reported for this company.
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Jens von Bahr | Co-Founder, Chairman & President | 54 |
| Mr. Martin Carlesund | Group Chief Executive Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Fredrik Österberg | Co-Founder & Director | 55 |
| Mr. Joakim Andersson | Chief Financial Officer | 51 |
| Mr. Carl Herman Linton | Head of Investor Relations | 53 |
| Amy Riches | Head of Marketing | - |
| Ms. Louise Wivén-Nilsson | Chief Human Resources Officer | 53 |
| Mr. Todd Haushalter | Chief Product Officer & Games Operations | 47 |
| Mr. Jesper Von Bahr | Chief Strategy Officer & Secretary | 55 |
Audit Risk
8
Board Risk
3
Compensation Risk
6
Shareholder Rights Risk
1
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for EVGGF, sourced from Markets Gazette.