Historical scenarios
Today's sector map and Fed rates, set beside past moments that resemble them. It shows what happened next: a historical comparison, not a forecast.
Today
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- TechnologyToday+6.7%
- EnergyToday+3.3%
- HealthcareToday-0.1%
- Consumer DefensiveToday-0.9%
- Basic MaterialsToday-2.4%
- Communication ServicesToday-4.5%
- Financial ServicesToday-6.9%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-8.5%
- Real EstateToday-8.7%
- IndustrialsToday-12.1%
- UtilitiesToday-12.4%
Energy dominates the picture today. It has beaten SPY by 41.4 points over 12 months, and it sits only 0.2% below its 12-month high, with 75% of its stocks above their long-term average. Real Estate is the opposite case. It trails SPY by 42.6 points over 12 months, is 28.6% below its high, and only 10% of its stocks are above their long-term average. Technology led over 3 and 6 months (6.7 and 11.9 points ahead of SPY) but has slipped 0.8 points behind over the last month, and headlines mention a sharp drop in chip stocks. Over the last month, money appears to have moved toward Energy, Consumer Defensive (4.2 points ahead) and Utilities (3.2 points ahead). Utilities remain well behind over 3 months and longer. This is a rotation inferred from prices and volumes, not from fund-flow data. Industrials, Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services lag over 3 and 6 months, which fits a market that is selective rather than broadly strong. The Fed funds rate is 3.88%, on a pause. It is up 0.25 points over 3 months and down 0.23 points over 12 months, so the easing of the past year has stopped for now. The news is mixed: Financial Services items are mostly neutral, while downgrades and drug-trial setbacks weigh on Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare. Headlines are context, not proof.
Today's news
- Oct 23BlackRock's Angara on ETF Product Pipeline
- Oct 23Blackstone's Early Bet on AI
- Oct 22PositiveAffirm, Sam’s Club Strike Exclusive Buy Now, Pay Later Deal
- Oct 22PositiveKroger CFO: We Are an Agent for the Consumer
- Oct 22Huntington Bancshares CEO Stephen Steinour on 3Q Results
- Oct 22NegativeA Tesla-SpaceX Merger Doesn’t Add Up
- Oct 22NegativeTD Cowen Analyst on Chipotle Downgrade
- Oct 22Negative3 big reasons Micron and other chip stocks fell hard on Thursday
- Oct 22Shopify-Like IPO Successes Becoming Rare in Canada, Nowlan Says
- Oct 22NegativeModerna, Merck Fall After Melanoma Data Leak
Feb 2024 – May 2024
Energy and industrials led as rates stayed on hold in spring written by AI
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- Then
- TechnologyToday+6.7%Then-0.4%
- EnergyToday+3.3%Then+9.0%
- HealthcareToday-0.1%Then-8.4%
- Consumer DefensiveToday-0.9%Then-4.9%
- Basic MaterialsToday-2.4%Then+4.0%
- Communication ServicesToday-4.5%Then-8.0%
- Financial ServicesToday-6.9%Then-1.7%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-8.5%Then-2.2%
- Real EstateToday-8.7%Then-10.8%
- IndustrialsToday-12.1%Then+5.2%
- UtilitiesToday-12.4%Then-4.2%
- TodayFed rate 3.88%on hold
- ThenFed rate 5.33%on hold
May 2024 – Jul 2024
Defensive and cyclical leaders gave way to communications and technology written by AI
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- Then
- TechnologyToday+6.7%Then-3.9%
- EnergyToday+3.3%Then-4.7%
- HealthcareToday-0.1%Then-4.2%
- Consumer DefensiveToday-0.9%Then-4.2%
- Basic MaterialsToday-2.4%Then-4.5%
- Communication ServicesToday-4.5%Then-3.9%
- Financial ServicesToday-6.9%Then-5.0%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-8.5%Then-6.3%
- Real EstateToday-8.7%Then-9.0%
- IndustrialsToday-12.1%Then-4.5%
- UtilitiesToday-12.4%Then+2.3%
- TodayFed rate 3.88%on hold
- ThenFed rate 5.33%on hold
Aug 2023 – Nov 2023
Energy led while high rates squeezed rate-sensitive sectors, until the market turned written by AI
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- Then
- TechnologyToday+6.7%Then-1.4%
- EnergyToday+3.3%Then+20.1%
- HealthcareToday-0.1%Then-2.5%
- Consumer DefensiveToday-0.9%Then-0.6%
- Basic MaterialsToday-2.4%Then+3.2%
- Communication ServicesToday-4.5%Then-0.9%
- Financial ServicesToday-6.9%Then+4.6%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-8.5%Then-4.0%
- Real EstateToday-8.7%Then-6.0%
- IndustrialsToday-12.1%Then+0.4%
- UtilitiesToday-12.4%Then-4.3%
- TodayFed rate 3.88%on hold
- ThenFed rate 5.33%rising
Jun 2018 – Nov 2018
Rate hikes and a tech slump pushed investors toward defensive sectors written by AI
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- Then
- TechnologyToday+6.7%Then-7.3%
- EnergyToday+3.3%Then-0.8%
- HealthcareToday-0.1%Then-0.5%
- Consumer DefensiveToday-0.9%Then-3.4%
- Basic MaterialsToday-2.4%Then-5.2%
- Communication ServicesToday-4.5%Then-5.5%
- Financial ServicesToday-6.9%Then-4.4%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-8.5%Then-6.0%
- Real EstateToday-8.7%Then-13.5%
- IndustrialsToday-12.1%Then0.0%
- UtilitiesToday-12.4%Then+0.4%
- TodayFed rate 3.88%on hold
- ThenFed rate 2.18%rising
Jun 2025 – Aug 2025
Tech leadership faded as the Fed paused and a rotation took hold written by AI
3-month return versus the S&P 500, by sector
- Today
- Then
- TechnologyToday+6.7%Then+5.3%
- EnergyToday+3.3%Then-7.3%
- HealthcareToday-0.1%Then-5.4%
- Consumer DefensiveToday-0.9%Then-0.6%
- Basic MaterialsToday-2.4%Then-2.2%
- Communication ServicesToday-4.5%Then+1.3%
- Financial ServicesToday-6.9%Then-0.6%
- Consumer CyclicalToday-8.5%Then-2.1%
- Real EstateToday-8.7%Then-6.6%
- IndustrialsToday-12.1%Then+5.4%
- UtilitiesToday-12.4%Then-0.3%
- TodayFed rate 3.88%on hold
- ThenFed rate 4.33%on hold
Limits to keep in mind
- The history starts on October 18, 2016: there are no earlier episodes.
- The comparison uses stocks that are listed today: those that left the market in the past are missing, which can flatter the results.
- We do not have an archive of the news of the time for past periods: the stories are built on prices, volumes and rates computed by the platform, plus the AI's general knowledge of that period.
- Resembling the past does not mean repeating it: this page is neither a forecast nor investment advice.