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Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG)

Fair Value
IndustrialsIndustrial DistributionUnited States

Fundamental

59

Price

$219.23

Market Cap

$43.97B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Ferguson is a value-added distributor of plumbing, HVAC, waterworks, appliances, lighting, and pipes, valves and fittings to professional trade customers in North America — contractors, builders, civil and industrial customers, and businesses that install and maintain water and air systems. It does not manufacture: it buys from roughly 37,000 suppliers and resells, holding inventory close to the job site. At July 31, 2025 it operated 1,746 branches (1,519 in the United States, 227 in Canada), 11 regional distribution centers and 6 market distribution centers, with about 35,000 associates. Its end markets are roughly half residential and half non-residential, and roughly two-thirds of activity is repair, maintenance and improvement rather than new construction.

How it makes money

Ferguson earns revenue on the spread between what it pays suppliers and what it charges professional customers, on transactions that are individually small and extremely numerous. Orders arrive through inside and outside sales teams, sales centers, counter sales, showrooms, digital commerce and system-to-system connections with customers, and are fulfilled by delivery, customer pickup at a branch, or direct shipment from the supplier. Profitability depends on gross margin per order, on supplier rebates earned by hitting purchase volumes, and on turning inventory quickly across a dense branch network; the filing notes that approximately 95% of products sold in the United States are sourced from U.S.-based suppliers.

Revenue by segment

United States95.1%

The US branch network — 1,519 locations at year end — selling the full product range to residential and non-residential trade customers, from plumbing and HVAC contractors to waterworks and industrial buyers. Net sales were $29.269 billion in fiscal 2025.

Canada4.9%

The Canadian business, 227 branches and about 3,000 associates, serving the same professional customer base with the same product categories. Net sales were $1.493 billion in fiscal 2025.

Competitive moat

Scale · Narrow

Ferguson describes itself as the largest value-added distributor serving the North American water and air markets, and its advantage is physical rather than technological: 1,746 branches plus 17 distribution centers put inventory within reach of the job site, which is what a contractor with a crew waiting actually buys. That density is expensive to replicate, gives buying power over roughly 37,000 suppliers and earns volume rebates a smaller rival cannot match. It is not a wide moat: distribution is a fragmented, competitive industry with low switching costs — a contractor can buy the same branded valve from the branch across the street — and the company's own risk factors name competition and price deflation as live threats.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Demand follows North American construction activity, which is cyclical: housing starts, permits and capital projects rise and fall with rates and confidence, and fiscal 2025 showed both sides at once — muted residential against non-residential revenue growing about 15% in the fourth quarter. What softens the cycle is the mix: roughly two-thirds of activity is repair, maintenance and improvement, work that gets done because a system failed or a building must keep running, not because a new project was approved. Water and wastewater infrastructure adds a slower, budget-driven layer of demand. So revenue bends with the cycle rather than collapsing with it.

Key risks

  • Downturn in residential and non-residential construction — The company discloses that declines in its residential and non-residential end markets, and more broadly weakness in the economy and uncertainty about market trends, would hurt results. Fiscal 2025 already showed this: management described residential markets as muted, with housing starts and permits weakening in the second half.
  • Competition in a fragmented industry — Ferguson lists the competitive nature of its industries and changes in the competitive landscape among its risk factors. It competes with national distributors, regional and local players and, increasingly, digital channels, on products that are largely the same wherever they are bought.
  • Product price volatility — The filing cites fluctuating prices of the products it distributes. Because Ferguson makes a margin on goods it buys and holds, both inflation and deflation in commodity-linked categories such as pipe, copper and steel move revenue and gross margin independently of how much it actually sells.
  • Tariffs and trade barriers — Trade barriers and tariffs are a disclosed risk factor. They raise the landed cost of imported goods and force the company either to pass the increase to trade customers or to absorb it in gross margin.
  • Supply chain and fulfillment network disruption — The company flags disruptions to its supply chain and fulfillment network. Its promise to customers is availability — the part, today, near the site — and that promise depends on supplier shipments, distribution centers and its own delivery fleet working without interruption.
  • Execution of the acquisition strategy — Acquisitions and partnerships are named as a risk. Ferguson grows partly by buying smaller distributors — acquisitions added about 1.0% to fiscal 2025 net sales — and the filing warns that these may not deliver the expected benefits.
  • Loss of supplier rebates — The company discloses the risk of failing to qualify for or maintain supplier rebates. These volume-based payments are a real component of gross margin for a distributor, and they are earned, not guaranteed.
  • Cybersecurity and data protection — Cybersecurity threats and data protection are a disclosed risk. A large share of orders flows through digital commerce and direct system-to-system links with customers, which makes the IT estate part of the operating business rather than a back office.

Customer concentration

Concentration is essentially absent. The filing states that no single customer accounted for more than 1% of net sales in fiscal 2025 — revenue comes from a very large number of contractors, builders and industrial buyers, each ordering small amounts often. Ferguson does not disclose a combined top-customers share, so no aggregate figure can be given. The supply side is similarly dispersed: about 37,000 suppliers, none of them more than 5% of purchases.

The case for

Buyers argue that Ferguson is the scale player in a fragmented industry that is still consolidating, and that it can keep buying smaller distributors branch by branch — acquisitions added about 1.0% to fiscal 2025 sales — while taking share organically. They point to the customer base, where no single customer is even 1% of sales, as unusually durable revenue; to the roughly two-thirds repair-and-maintenance mix that keeps volumes flowing when new construction stalls; and to non-residential and water infrastructure work, which grew about 15% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 while residential stayed muted. In their reading, the branch and distribution network is an asset that gets harder to replicate as it gets denser.

The case against

Sellers fear that this is still distribution: a thin-margin, capital-hungry business whose fortunes are set by North American construction, which the company itself lists first among its risk factors. They note that residential markets were muted through fiscal 2025, with starts and permits weakening in the second half, and that total growth of 3.8% came partly from acquisitions rather than underlying volume. They worry about price: Ferguson makes its margin on goods it holds, so deflation in pipe and commodity categories hits revenue and gross margin at the same time, while tariffs push costs up and must be passed on to contractors who can walk to a competitor. And they question the durability of the advantage — switching costs are low, supplier rebates must be re-earned each year, and a roll-up strategy has to keep finding targets at sensible prices to keep working.

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 17.1Score: 72Market cap: —

Core & Main is the other national distributor of water, wastewater and fire-protection pipe, valves, fittings and meters in the United States, selling to the same municipalities and civil contractors that Ferguson's Waterworks business serves.

P/E: 25.9Score: 67Market cap: $10.86B

Watsco is the largest North American distributor of heating, air-conditioning and refrigeration equipment and parts, competing branch by branch with Ferguson's HVAC business for the same residential and commercial installation contractors.

P/E: 19.9Score: 61Market cap: $289.22B

Home Depot has pushed into the professional trade channel through HD Supply and the 2024 acquisition of SRS Distribution, delivering building and MEP materials to the same contractor job sites Ferguson supplies.

Winsupply Inc.Not tracked

Winsupply is a privately held, broad-line wholesaler of plumbing, HVAC and waterworks supplies whose locally owned branches chase the same contractor accounts as Ferguson across the same US markets.

Hajoca CorporationNot tracked

Hajoca is the largest privately held US wholesaler of plumbing, heating and industrial supplies, selling the same product lines from several hundred branches to the same plumbing and mechanical contractors Ferguson depends on.

Reece Limited (Reece Group)Not tracked

Through its US arm, built on the 2018 purchase of MORSCO, the Australian-listed Reece Group runs plumbing, HVAC and waterworks branches in the Sun Belt states, competing head-on with Ferguson for contractors in those territories.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$32.89B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$2.35B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$1.60B

Total Equity

$5.83B

Total Liabilities

$11.90B

Current Ratio

1.68

Interest Coverage

13.72

Debt/EBITDA

2.31

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseFairly Valued

Fair Value

$194.41

Current Price

$219.23

Margin of Safety

-12.8%

Fair Value Range

$126.37 - $262.45

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$287.48
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$143.32
Earnings multiple (P/E):$182.92
Graham growth formula:$76.00
Earnings power value (EPV):$128.27
Justified P/B:$163.87
Dividend discount (Gordon):$38.09
P/FFO, funds from operations:$184.36
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$467.43
Analyst Consensus:Buy (22B / 9H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+1.07%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

24.39

ROE

31.8%

P/B Ratio

7.54

P/FCF

27.43

Gross Margin

30.7%

ROIC

17.6%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

17.6%

WACC

9.6%

ROIC − WACC

+8.0 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (20)

  • Price CAGR 13.33%
  • ROIC 17.6%
  • Gross Margin 30.7%
  • P/FCF 27.43
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 8.5%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 40.6%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 6.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 71% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 5.8%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.03
  • Share Dilution -2.1%
  • Net Margin Trend 6.0% vs 5.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Failed (6)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -1.29%
  • P/B Ratio 7.54
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)

Unavailable (2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.03

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-2.1%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Kevin M. MurphyCEO, President & Director55
Mr. William BrundageCFO, Treasurer & Director49
Mr. William T. Thees Jr.Chief Operating Officer57
Mr. Andy PaisleyChief Digital & Information Officer56
Mr. Ian Thomas GrahamChief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary57
Mr. Jake SchlicherChief Strategy Officer60
Mr. Bo CamposanoSenior Vice President of Waterworks53
Mr. Richard Paul WincklerChief Accounting Officer47
Mr. Peter KennedyVice President of Investor Relations-
Christine DwyerVice President of Communications & PR-

Audit Risk

6

Board Risk

3

Compensation Risk

3

Shareholder Rights Risk

2

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2025-09-26

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-10

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-08-14

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for FERG, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 2/24/2026POSITIVE
    Ferguson Misses Mark In Q4 On Weak Residential End Markets

    Ferguson shares experienced an unexpected rally, despite the company missing its Q4 revenue and earnings per share estimates. This positive market movement was primarily fueled by an upbeat outlook for fiscal year 2026, which significantly boosted investor confidence. Although weaknesses in residential end markets weighed on current results, the prospect of future growth prevailed, indicating that the market is looking beyond short-term difficulties. Investors appear to be rewarding Ferguson's long-term vision and its ability to outline a solid growth path, transforming a potentially negative news item into a signal of strength.

via Markets Gazette