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JD.com, Inc. (JD)

Undervalued
Consumer CyclicalInternet RetailChina

Fundamental

67

Price

$26.60

Market Cap

$36.13B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

JD.com is a Chinese e-commerce company that, unlike a pure marketplace, buys most of the products it sells and stocks them in its own warehouses before shipping them to customers — closer to a retailer than an online bazaar. It built a nationwide logistics network to support that model, which it now also sells as a service to other businesses, and has expanded into food delivery and instant retail more recently.

How it makes money

The core JD Retail business, by far the largest of the three reportable segments, earns money mainly by buying goods wholesale and reselling them at a markup, plus marketplace commissions and advertising from third-party merchants who list on the platform. JD Logistics earns fees from external customers using its warehouses and delivery network. New Businesses — food delivery, discount retail, overseas operations — is the smallest segment but grew the fastest in 2025.

Competitive moat

Scale · Narrow

Owning a nationwide network of warehouses and delivery staff, rather than renting one from a third party, is a fixed-cost investment few competitors can match, and it has built JD's reputation for fast, reliable delivery of authentic goods. The advantage is narrower than it once was, though, as Alibaba, Pinduoduo and Meituan have all invested heavily in their own logistics and low-price competition.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Demand follows Chinese consumer spending and the continued shift of retail online, a structural trend that has slowed but not reversed. Electronics and appliances, JD's original category, are more discretionary and cyclical than everyday consumables, so the mix of what people are buying matters as much as the overall spending level.

Key risks

  • VIE corporate structure — Foreign shareholders hold their interest through contractual variable-interest-entity arrangements rather than direct ownership of the Chinese operating businesses, a structure Chinese regulators could restrict or invalidate.
  • Evolving Chinese regulation — Antitrust, data-security and e-commerce rules in China have tightened in recent years and can change again with little notice, affecting how JD operates its marketplace and handles user data.
  • Thin margins of the self-operated model — Buying and reselling inventory carries lower gross margins and more warehousing and obsolescence risk than a pure marketplace commission model, making profitability more sensitive to execution.
  • Intense multi-front competition — JD competes against Alibaba and Pinduoduo in retail, Meituan and others in food delivery and instant retail, and is spending heavily to build share in newer businesses that are not yet as profitable as the core.

The case for

Buyers argue that JD's self-owned logistics and reputation for authentic, reliably delivered goods give it an edge in categories like electronics where trust matters most, and that New Businesses, though still small, is growing fast enough to become a meaningful second engine.

The case against

Sellers worry that the self-operated retail model structurally caps margins compared to marketplace-only rivals, and that heavy spending to compete in food delivery and discount retail is diluting profitability just as Chinese consumer spending growth has slowed.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 8.5Score: 81Market cap: $111.31B

Pinduoduo sells the same everyday consumer goods to Chinese households and overtook JD.com as the country's second-largest e-commerce platform by competing hardest on price.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (阿里巴巴集团)BABA

Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall are the largest general-merchandise marketplaces in China and compete with JD.com for the same shoppers, the same brand flagship stores and the same advertising budgets, while its Ele.me unit fights JD.com in on-demand delivery.

ByteDance Ltd. (字节跳动), operator of Douyin (抖音)Not tracked

Douyin's live-streaming and short-video storefronts capture Chinese shoppers and brand merchants directly inside the app, diverting purchases that would otherwise start on JD.com.

Meituan (美团)3690.HK

Meituan is the dominant Chinese food-delivery and instant-retail platform, and since JD.com launched its own takeaway service in 2025 the two compete for the same restaurants, riders and local shoppers.

Vipshop Holdings Limited (唯品会)VIPS

Vipshop sells branded apparel and household goods to the same Chinese online shoppers through discounted flash sales, competing with JD.com's fashion and lifestyle categories.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$1.31T

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$14.79B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$16.13B

Total Equity

$33.09B

Total Liabilities

$105.31B

Current Ratio

1.14

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

8.93

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$35.55

Current Price

$26.60

Margin of Safety

+25.2%

Fair Value Range

$23.11 - $48.00

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$39.39
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$126.91
Earnings multiple (P/E):$10.32
Graham growth formula:$11.22
Earnings power value (EPV):$0.62
Justified P/B:$32.80
Dividend discount (Gordon):$43.24
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$799.49
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (27B / 3H / 1S)
Last Earnings Surprise:-11.96%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

17.83

ROE

6.8%

P/B Ratio

1.09

P/FCF

2.24

Gross Margin

9.4%

ROIC

9.0%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

9.0%

WACC

8.4%

ROIC − WACC

+0.5 pp

ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (10)

  • ROIC 9.0%
  • P/FCF 2.24
  • P/B Ratio 1.09
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 11.9%
  • Analyst Consensus 87% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.60

Failed (8)

  • Price CAGR 0.66%
  • Gross Margin 9.4%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 6.6%
  • Earnings Surprise avg -26.8%
  • Net Margin Trend 1.5% vs 3.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

Unavailable (9)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Operating Margin NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-Score

2/9

Serious financial concerns

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

2.60

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Qiangdong LiuFounder & Chairman52
Ms. Ran Xu CPACEO & Executive Director43
Mr. Su ShanChief Financial Officer43
Mr. Ruiyu LiSenior Director of Investor Relations-
Mr. Chengfeng HeChief Compliance Officer-
Ms. Pang ZhangChief Human Resources Officer37
Ms. Li YayunSenior Vice President44
Mr. Yanzhong YaoPresident of JD Retail Appliance & Home and Senior VP43
Mr. Sean Shibiao ZhangDirector of Investor Relations-
Mr. Daxue LiAdvisor55

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Latest News

Recent headlines for JD, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 20d agoNEGATIVE
    JD.com Unit Agrees to Pay SEC $500,000 Over ‘Sham Transactions’

    JD.com Inc.'s Chinese unit has agreed to pay $500,000 to settle claims by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding 'sham transactions'. These transactions were allegedly used to artificially meet revenue targets for multiple quarters starting in October 2022. This regulatory action raises concerns about the company's financial reporting integrity and internal controls. Investors may view this as a negative development, potentially impacting investor confidence and leading to increased scrutiny of JD.com's financial statements.

  • 8/14/2026NEGATIVE
    JD Slumps After First Decline in Over A Decade | The China Show | 8/14/2026

    JD.com Inc. experienced a significant slump following the announcement of its first decline in over a decade. While specific figures were not detailed in the provided summary, the implication of a contraction in its business operations after a prolonged period of growth signals potential headwinds. This marks a critical turning point for the e-commerce giant, raising concerns among investors about its future growth trajectory and market position. The news suggests a potential shift in consumer spending patterns or increased competitive pressures impacting JD.com's performance.

  • 7/10/2026NEUTRAL
    JD.com-Backed Group Is Said Near to REIT IPO Filing in Singapore

    A consortium, including JD.com Inc.'s asset management division and Partners Group Holding AG, is reportedly nearing a confidential filing for a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) IPO in Singapore. This move signals potential expansion into the Singaporean real estate market for the involved entities. While the specific REIT's assets and valuation are not yet disclosed, the involvement of JD.com suggests a strategic diversification for the e-commerce giant. Investors will be watching for details on the REIT's portfolio and the IPO's pricing to assess its investment potential.

  • 6/16/2026NEUTRAL
    JD.com Invests $4.5B In Hong Kong Expansion—When Will It See A Return?

    JD.com has announced a significant investment of $4.5 billion earmarked for its expansion into Hong Kong. This strategic move aims to bolster its presence in a key Asian market, potentially unlocking new revenue streams and customer bases. However, the article raises questions about the timeline for realizing a return on this substantial capital outlay. Investors will be closely monitoring the execution of this expansion strategy and its impact on JD.com's profitability and market share in the competitive e-commerce landscape.

  • 5/13/2026POSITIVE
    JD.Com Analyst Raises Estimates On Recovering Profitability, Earnings Inflection

    JD.com Inc. shares experienced a significant rally following the release of robust Q1 financial results and an optimistic forward-looking outlook. Analysts have responded positively, with one prominent analyst raising earnings estimates, signaling a belief in the company's recovering profitability and an impending earnings inflection point. This positive sentiment is further underscored by the analyst's maintained bullish stance on JD's long-term growth trajectory. The news suggests that the e-commerce giant is successfully navigating its operational challenges and is poised for sustained value creation, making it an attractive prospect for investors.

  • 5/12/2026NEUTRAL
    JD.com's Growth Stays Hot, But Aggressive Spending Squeezes Margins

    JD.com reported Q1 2026 revenue of $45.77 billion, surpassing analyst estimates. The company also posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.74, exceeding expectations. However, this growth was accompanied by aggressive spending, particularly in marketing, which led to squeezed profit margins. Investors will be watching to see if JD.com can balance its expansionary strategy with profitability in future quarters, as the increased costs may temper the positive impact of revenue growth.

  • 3/16/2026NEUTRAL
    JD.com Launches Joybuy In Europe To Take On Amazon, Alibaba Group's AliExpress And PDD Holdings' Temu

    JD.com has officially launched its e-commerce platform, Joybuy, in multiple European countries. This strategic move positions JD.com to directly challenge established players like Amazon, Alibaba Group's AliExpress, and PDD Holdings' rapidly growing Temu. The expansion into Europe signifies JD.com's ambition to broaden its international footprint and capture a larger share of the global online retail market. While the launch itself is a significant operational milestone, its immediate financial impact and success against formidable competitors remain to be seen, making it a development to monitor for future performance.

via Markets Gazette