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Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)

Fair Value
EnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingUnited States

Fundamental

75

Price

$395.42

Market Cap

$113.69B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

No editorial profile for this company yet

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 16.1Score: 74Market cap: $112.17B

The other large independent U.S. refiner, competing with Marathon for the same crude supply and for wholesale, spot and branded sales of gasoline and distillates across the Gulf Coast and Mid-Continent, and also in renewable diesel.

P/E: 14.6Score: 83Market cap: $101.17B

A refiner and marketer with a comparable mix of refineries, branded fuel stations and midstream logistics, selling refined products to the same U.S. wholesale and retail channels.

P/E: 24.3Score: 72Market cap: $668.27B

Through its U.S. downstream arm it runs some of the country's largest refineries and a national branded fuel network, competing directly with Marathon for refined-product volumes and station customers.

PBF Energy Inc.PBF

An independent refiner with plants on the East Coast, Gulf Coast and West Coast that competes for the same crude barrels and sells refined products into the same regional fuel markets as Marathon.

HF Sinclair CorporationDINO

An independent refiner concentrated in the Rocky Mountains and Mid-Continent, competing with Marathon's inland refineries for regional gasoline and diesel demand and for renewable diesel feedstocks.

Delek US Holdings, Inc.DK

A smaller independent refiner in Texas and the Mid-Continent selling gasoline and diesel to the same wholesale and rack customers Marathon supplies in those regions.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$153.58B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$8.55B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$4.77B

Total Equity

$17.31B

Total Liabilities

$59.87B

Current Ratio

1.25

Interest Coverage

8.67

Debt/EBITDA

2.97

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

CyclicalFairly Valued

Fair Value

$354.66

Current Price

$395.42

Margin of Safety

-11.5%

Fair Value Range

$277.31 - $432.01

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$375.50
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):$237.91
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):$481.31
Justified P/B:Not applicable to this type of company
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not applicable to this type of company
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:$302.18
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Analyst Consensus:Buy (15B / 10H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+27.72%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

13.65

ROE

23.4%

P/B Ratio

5.82

P/FCF

8.61

Gross Margin

12.5%

ROIC

16.7%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

16.7%

WACC

6.9%

ROIC − WACC

+9.8 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (20)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 15.88%
  • Price CAGR 22.91%
  • ROIC 16.7%
  • P/FCF 8.61
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 9.2%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 48.7%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 14.4%
  • Analyst Consensus 60% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 45.3%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.00
  • Share Dilution -10.4%
  • Net Margin Trend 5.6% vs 1.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (6)

  • Gross Margin 12.5%
  • P/B Ratio 5.82
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)

Unavailable (2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

2.00

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-10.4%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Ms. Maryann T. MannenPresident, CEO & Chairman of the Board62
Ms. Molly R. BensonChief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary58
Mr. Rick D. HesslingChief Commercial Officer58
Ms. Maria A. KhouryExecutive VP & CFO54
Brian WorthingtonVice President of Investor Relations-
Mr. Marlon J. SullivanSenior VP of Communications & Chief Human Resources Officer50
Mr. Brian K. ParteeChief Business Transformation Officer51
Mr. James R. WilkinsSenior Vice President of Health, Environment, Safety & Security58
Mr. David R. HeppnerChief Strategy Officer & Senior VP of Business Development58
Mr. Ehren D. PowellSenior VP & Chief Digital Officer45

Audit Risk

7

Board Risk

4

Compensation Risk

1

Shareholder Rights Risk

9

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-26

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-04

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-08-04

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for MPC, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/18/2026POSITIVE
    Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Marathon Petroleum Stock In The Last 5 Years

    Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) has delivered a remarkable performance over the past five years, significantly outperforming the broader market. While specific return figures are not detailed in the provided snippet, the title implies substantial gains for shareholders. This sustained positive trend suggests strong operational execution, strategic growth initiatives, and favorable market conditions for the energy sector, particularly in refining and marketing. Investors who held MPC stock during this period would have likely seen considerable capital appreciation and potentially dividend income, underscoring the company's robust financial health and market position.

  • 6/10/2026POSITIVE
    $1000 Invested In Marathon Petroleum 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today

    An investment of $1000 in Marathon Petroleum Corporation five years ago would have yielded a significant return, illustrating the company's strong performance and growth trajectory. This substantial appreciation suggests robust operational efficiency, strategic market positioning, and effective management that have translated into considerable shareholder value. Investors looking at the energy sector might consider MPC's historical performance as an indicator of potential future gains, though past performance is not indicative of future results.

  • 4/10/2026POSITIVE
    Here's How Much $100 Invested In Marathon Petroleum 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today

    An investment of $100 in Marathon Petroleum Corporation 10 years ago would have yielded a significant return, illustrating the company's strong performance over the past decade. While specific figures are not provided in this snippet, the framing suggests substantial capital appreciation and potentially dividend income for shareholders. This historical performance underscores Marathon Petroleum's resilience and growth trajectory within the energy sector, making it a noteworthy consideration for investors seeking long-term value.

  • 3/24/2026POSITIVE
    Why Marathon Petroleum Stock Is Breaking Out To Fresh All-Time Highs Today

    Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) has surged to new all-time highs, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. This renewed focus on geopolitical risk in global energy markets is directly benefiting MPC. The stock's breakout suggests strong investor confidence in the company's ability to navigate and potentially profit from the volatile energy landscape. Investors are likely reacting to the increased likelihood of sustained higher energy prices, which typically boosts refining margins for companies like Marathon Petroleum.

  • 2/21/2026POSITIVE
    Marathon Petroleum Returned $4.5 Billion to Shareholders in 2025. Here's Why It Could Happen Again.

    Marathon Petroleum Corporation returned $4.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, a sign of financial strength that could be repeated. The robustness of its midstream income, which covers the dividend even if refining margins cool, offers notable stability. This approach to shareholder remuneration, supported by resilient cash flows, suggests prudent management focused on investor value. For shareholders, this implies potential continuity in returns and lower stock volatility, making it attractive in an uncertain market environment.

via Markets Gazette