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Valero Energy Corp (VLO)

Overvalued
EnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingUnited States

Fundamental

65

Price

$387.61

Market Cap

$112.17B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces and sells renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distillers grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

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Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$139.40B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$7.21B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

-

Total Equity

$23.73B

Total Liabilities

$31.38B

Current Ratio

1.64

Interest Coverage

17.78

Debt/EBITDA

1.79

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

CyclicalOvervalued

Fair Value

$277.51

Current Price

$387.61

Margin of Safety

-39.7%

Fair Value Range

$207.63 - $347.40

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$360.32
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):$240.30
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):$336.18
Justified P/B:Not applicable to this type of company
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not applicable to this type of company
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:$205.94
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Analyst Consensus:Buy (14B / 11H / 1S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+22.71%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

16.13

ROE

9.9%

P/B Ratio

4.46

P/FCF

-

Gross Margin

8.0%

ROIC

17.2%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

17.2%

WACC

7.6%

ROIC − WACC

+9.6 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (17)

  • Price CAGR 19.04%
  • ROIC 17.2%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 7.2%
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 29.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 13.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 54% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 22.4%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.51
  • Share Dilution -3.9%
  • Net Margin Trend 5.2% vs 0.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (6)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR -0.88%
  • Gross Margin 8.0%
  • P/B Ratio 4.46
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)

Unavailable (5)

  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.51

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-3.9%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. R. Lane RiggsCEO, President & Chairman59
Mr. Gary K. SimmonsExecutive VP & COO60
Mr. Richard Joe WalshExecutive VP & General Counsel59
Mr. Harminder S. BhullarSenior VP & CFO44
Mr. Mike ZachoVP of Information Services & Technology-
Mr. Brian DonovanVice President of Investor Relations-
Lillian RiojasExecutive Director of Media Relations & Communications-
Mr. Richard F. LashwaySenior Vice President of Corporate Development & Strategy62
Ms. Julia Rendon ReinhartSenior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer-
Mr. Eric HoneymanSenior Vice President of Renewables Operations & Low Carbon Fuels-

Audit Risk

7

Board Risk

5

Compensation Risk

3

Shareholder Rights Risk

7

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-25

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-07-30

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-18

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for VLO, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/18/2026POSITIVE
    $1000 Invested In Valero Energy 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today

    An investment of $1,000 in Valero Energy (VLO) made a decade ago would have grown substantially, illustrating the company's strong performance and investor returns over the past ten years. While specific figures are not provided in the summary, the headline implies significant capital appreciation and potential dividend payouts, making Valero Energy a noteworthy performer in the energy sector. Investors considering energy stocks should note this historical performance as an indicator of potential future growth and stability, especially given the company's position in refining and marketing.

  • 4/8/2026NEUTRAL
    Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Valero Energy Stock In The Last 15 Years

    An analysis of Valero Energy Corporation's stock performance over the past 15 years reveals a significant return for investors. While specific figures are not detailed in the provided snippet, the title implies a positive historical trend. This type of historical performance data is crucial for investors assessing long-term value and potential future returns, but it does not provide immediate trading signals based on current market conditions or company-specific news.

  • 3/24/2026NEGATIVE
    Explosion Reported At Valero's Port Arthur Refinery, Police Advises Citizens To Shelter In Place

    An explosion occurred at Valero Energy Corp.'s Port Arthur refinery in Texas, prompting a shelter-in-place advisory from local authorities. Emergency services are actively working to contain the resulting fire. This incident raises concerns about potential disruptions to Valero's refining operations and product supply, which could impact its production capacity and financial performance. Investors will be monitoring the extent of the damage and the duration of any operational shutdowns.

  • 3/13/2026NEUTRAL
    Here's How Much $100 Invested In Valero Energy 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today

    An investment of $100 in Valero Energy Inc. (VLO) five years prior to March 13, 2026, would have grown to approximately $350. This represents a significant return on investment, outperforming many market benchmarks over the same period. The company's performance is largely attributed to its strong position in the refining and ethanol sectors, benefiting from favorable market conditions and strategic operational management. Investors considering Valero should note this historical performance as an indicator of potential future growth, though past results do not guarantee future returns.

via Markets Gazette