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Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

Undervalued
HealthcareBiotechnologyUnited States

Fundamental

29

Price

$198.30

Market Cap

$76.88B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zika, Nipah, and Mpox vaccines; and bacterial diseases vaccines, such as lyme vaccines. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer; and rare disease products, including propionic and methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis. It has strategic alliances and collaborations with Merck & Co., Inc; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; immatics N.V.; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and OpenAI. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

No editorial profile for this company yet

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 37.5Score: 72Market cap: $163.69B

Pfizer sells the main rival mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (Comirnaty) and the Abrysvo RSV vaccine, so it bids for the same government, pharmacy and payer contracts Moderna depends on.

P/E: —Score: 48Market cap: $24.93B

BioNTech co-developed and shares the revenue of the Comirnaty mRNA COVID-19 vaccine and is advancing its own mRNA cancer immunotherapies, the two arenas where Moderna's technology competes head-on.

GSK plcGSK

GSK's Arexvy leads the adult RSV vaccine market that Moderna's mResvia is trying to enter, and both compete for the same older-adult respiratory vaccination visits.

Sanofi S.A.SAN

Sanofi is the largest seller of seasonal influenza vaccines and is building combination respiratory shots, competing directly with Moderna's flu and flu/COVID combination programmes.

Novavax, Inc.NVAX

Novavax offers the protein-based alternative to Moderna's COVID-19 shot in the United States and Europe, targeting the same seasonal vaccination demand with a non-mRNA option.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$2.23B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$-3.15B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$-2.06B

Total Equity

$8.65B

Total Liabilities

$3.69B

Current Ratio

2.29

Interest Coverage

-

Debt/EBITDA

-

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$301.75

Current Price

$198.30

Margin of Safety

+34.3%

Fair Value Range

$196.14 - $407.37

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$119.56
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$544.68
Earnings multiple (P/E):Not enough data to compute it
Graham growth formula:Not enough data to compute it
Earnings power value (EPV):Not enough data to compute it
Justified P/B:Not enough data to compute it
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$22.06
Analyst Consensus:Hold (11B / 17H / 2S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+7.28%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

-

ROE

-32.6%

P/B Ratio

11.37

P/FCF

-

Gross Margin

23.4%

ROIC

-31.1%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-31.1%

WACC

10.8%

ROIC − WACC

-41.9 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (7)

  • Price CAGR 36.32%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Current Ratio
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 19.3%
  • Earnings Surprise avg 30.3%
  • Share Dilution 1.3%

Failed (12)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • ROIC -31.1%
  • Gross Margin 23.4%
  • P/B Ratio 11.37
  • Operating Margin -149.0%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • ROE -39.2%
  • Analyst Consensus 37% Buy
  • Net Margin Trend -141.4% vs -94.3%
  • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

Unavailable (8)

  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)

Piotroski F-Score

3/9

Serious financial concerns

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

-

Low quality: investigate accounting

Share Dilution

1.3%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Stéphane Bancel M.B.A.CEO & Director52
Dr. Stephen Hoge M.D.President49
Mr. James M. MockChief Financial Officer48
Ms. Shannon Thyme Klinger J.D.Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary54
Dr. Jerh Collins Ph.D.Chief Technical Operations & Quality Officer59
Ms. Lavina Talukdar CFASenior VP & Head of Investor Relations51
Chris RidleyVP & Global Head of Communications-
Ms. Tracey FranklinChief People & Digital Technology Officer45
Dr. Charbel Haber M.P.H., Ph.D.Senior VP & Head of Global Regulatory Science-
Mr. Patrick Norman BergstedtSenior Vice President of Commercial Vaccines63

Audit Risk

7

Board Risk

7

Compensation Risk

10

Shareholder Rights Risk

9

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-20

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-07-31

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-30

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for MRNA, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 1d agoNEGATIVE
    Azioni Moderna -6% nel premarket: ecco perché

    Moderna shares tumbled nearly 6% in pre-market trading following a downgrade from Citi, which moved the biotech firm from 'Hold' to 'Sell'. Citi cited concerns that the recent valuation is difficult to justify, despite raising its price target to $80 from $60. The new target remains significantly below Tuesday's closing price of $203.46. This downgrade follows a near seven-fold increase in Moderna's stock this year, partly fueled by positive late-stage trial results for its personalized cancer vaccine candidate, intismeran autogene. Citi's revised assumptions on sales and operating expenses underpin the downgrade.

  • 10d agoPOSITIVE
    Moderna will reveal the data for its mRNA cancer vaccine next month. Here’s why it matters.

    Moderna is set to unveil data for its mRNA cancer vaccine next month, a development keenly awaited by analysts and medical professionals. The key focus will be on the efficacy of the personalized treatment, which aims to tailor vaccines to individual tumor mutations. Positive results could validate Moderna's platform beyond infectious diseases and open a significant new revenue stream. Investors will be scrutinizing the data for robust clinical outcomes and potential market penetration, which could significantly impact the company's valuation and future growth prospects in the oncology space.

  • 14d agoPOSITIVE
    Moderna +8%: il rally del vaccino anti-cancro può proseguire?

    Moderna Inc. shares surged 8% as investors reacted to positive Phase 3 trial results for its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intisemran autogene, developed with Merck. The treatment demonstrated a significant reduction in the risk of melanoma recurrence or death when combined with Merck's Keytruda, compared to Keytruda alone. This success has led to a strong reassessment of Moderna's future prospects, as the company aims to diversify beyond its COVID-19 vaccine business. The positive trial outcome and subsequent analyst upgrades are fueling investor optimism.

  • 8/31/2026POSITIVE
    23 best-performing stocks of August, as the software industry continues its recovery

    Moderna Inc. emerged as the top-performing stock in August, significantly outperforming other companies within the energy and technology sectors. This exceptional performance highlights a strong recovery trend within the software industry, with Moderna leading the charge. Investors are likely to view this as a positive indicator of the company's resilience and growth potential, potentially attracting further investment and driving up its market valuation. The broader tech sector's recovery also bodes well for related companies.

  • 8/27/2026NEUTRAL
    Moderna Taps Stock Surge With $2 Billion Note Offering

    Moderna Inc. is launching a $2 billion offering of convertible senior notes. These notes will be exchangeable into Moderna's common stock, providing a mechanism for future equity dilution. The company intends to use the proceeds to fuel its promising cancer vaccine pipeline and to manage existing debt obligations. While the investment in cancer vaccines signals a strategic focus on future growth, the issuance of debt convertible into equity introduces potential dilution for existing shareholders. Investors will monitor the success of the cancer vaccine development and the conversion rate of the notes.

  • 8/27/2026NEGATIVE
    Moderna Capitalizes on Stock Jump With $2 Billion Offering

    Moderna Inc. announced plans to raise $2 billion through a convertible note offering. The company intends to use the proceeds for strategic investments in its cancer vaccine pipeline and to manage existing debt obligations. While the capital infusion could support future growth initiatives, the offering of notes convertible into shares dilutes existing shareholders' equity. This move, often seen as a sign of needing capital or a belief that the stock price is high enough to justify conversion, typically puts downward pressure on the stock price in the short term.

via Markets Gazette