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NRG Energy Inc (NRG)

Fair Value
UtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersUnited States

Fundamental

55

Price

$95.65

Market Cap

$20.39B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments. The company offers retail electricity, energy management, demand response and virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, smart home security, and automation services. It also offers system power, distributed and backup generation, energy storage, energy management, renewable and low-carbon products, and carbon management solutions for large business and commercial customers; a cloud-based home platform, including hardware, software, sales, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring solutions; and generation portfolio includes fossil fuel and renewable generation assets diversified by fuel type and dispatch level, with ongoing development of new natural gas and renewable projects. In addition, the company trades in power, natural gas, and related products; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It offers its products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. It serves residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

No editorial profile for this company yet

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 23.3Score: 59Market cap: $46.32B

Vistra is NRG's closest mirror image: a large merchant generation fleet paired with retail electricity brands (TXU Energy, Ambit) that compete household by household against NRG's Reliant and Green Mountain in the deregulated Texas and Northeast markets.

P/E: 24.8Score: 66Market cap: $92.69B

Constellation sells unregulated power to residential, commercial and industrial customers in the same deregulated states, and after absorbing Calpine's gas fleet and retail platform in January 2026 it competes with NRG for the same large data-centre and business supply contracts.

P/E: —Score: 41Market cap: $14.37B

Talen is an independent power producer selling merchant generation into the same PJM and ERCOT wholesale markets where NRG earns its generation margin, and it courts the same large-load customers for direct power supply deals.

P/E: 14.8Score: 49Market cap: $41.13B

Outside Texas, NRG's retail arms must win customers away from incumbent regulated utilities, and Exelon's distribution companies (ComEd, PECO, BGE, Pepco) are the default supplier NRG has to displace in Illinois and the Mid-Atlantic.

Engie SANot tracked

Engie's North American retail supply business sells electricity and natural gas to commercial and industrial customers in the same deregulated states, bidding for the same business supply contracts as NRG Business.

ADT Inc.ADT

ADT competes directly with the Vivint smart-home business NRG acquired in 2023, selling monitored security and home-automation subscriptions to the same residential households.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$32.64B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$849M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$766M

Total Equity

$1.68B

Total Liabilities

$27.46B

Current Ratio

0.97

Interest Coverage

1.97

Debt/EBITDA

7.22

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

Regulated utilityFairly Valued

Fair Value

$89.82

Current Price

$95.65

Margin of Safety

-6.5%

Fair Value Range

$58.39 - $121.26

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$188.56
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$123.94
Earnings multiple (P/E):$38.42
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):$65.45
Justified P/B:Not applicable to this type of company
Dividend discount (Gordon):$30.51
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:Not applicable to this type of company
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (17B / 4H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:-13.08%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

24.84

ROE

51.4%

P/B Ratio

4.14

P/FCF

57.78

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

5.3%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

5.3%

WACC

6.6%

ROIC − WACC

-1.3 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 24.92%
  • ROIC 5.3%
  • Operating Margin 6.2%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 25.4%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 27.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 81% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.53
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.83
  • Share Dilution -4.4%
  • Net Margin Trend 2.6% vs 1.8%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Failed (10)

  • EPS CAGR 4.06%
  • P/FCF 57.78
  • P/B Ratio 4.14
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg 1.4%

Unavailable (2)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.83

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-4.4%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Robert J. GaudettePresident, CEO & Director52
Mr. Bruce ChungEVP & CFO51
Mr. Brian E. Curci J.D.Executive VP of Legal & General Counsel47
Dr. Lawrence Stephen Coben Ph.D.Advisor66
Mr. Brad BentleyExecutive Vice President & President of NRG Consumer49
Mr. Gerald Alfred SpencerSenior VP & Chief Accounting Officer43
Mr. Dak LiyanearachchiExecutive VP & CTO56
Ms. Virginia Kirkland KinneyExecutive VP & Chief Administrative Officer51
Mr. Brendan MulhernHead of Investor Relations-
Mr. Christopher S. MoserExecutive VP and Head of Competitive Markets & Policy54

Audit Risk

4

Board Risk

2

Compensation Risk

5

Shareholder Rights Risk

5

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-24

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-04

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-08-04

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for NRG, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 6/3/2026POSITIVE
    Energy Companies 'Weren't Prepared' For AI Data Center Boom Says NRG's Caroline Golin

    Caroline Golin, chief growth and policy officer at NRG Energy, highlighted that the rapid expansion of AI data centers has outpaced existing energy infrastructure, catching many energy companies unprepared for the surge in demand. Despite the current strain on the grid, Golin indicated that the industry is actively working to enhance infrastructure to meet future growth requirements. This situation presents a significant opportunity for energy providers like NRG to invest in and develop the necessary capacity, potentially leading to increased revenue and strategic positioning in the evolving energy landscape.

  • 5/17/2026POSITIVE
    New NRG Energy CEO leans into growth with ‘bring your own power’ for the AI boom and affordability with ‘virtual power plants’

    NRG Energy Inc. is poised for a growth-focused strategy under new CEO Robert Gaudette, aiming to address power constraints driven by the AI boom and affordability concerns through innovative solutions. The company plans to leverage 'bring your own power' initiatives and 'virtual power plants' to meet escalating energy demands and provide cost-effective solutions for residents. This forward-looking approach signals a proactive stance in adapting to market shifts and technological advancements, potentially enhancing NRG's market position and profitability.

  • 3/24/2026NEUTRAL
    NRG CEO on Houston Power Project and Power Demand Outlook

    NRG Energy CEO Lawrence Coben provided insights into the company's strategic direction and its significant Houston power project during an interview at CERAWeek. The discussion, facilitated by Bloomberg's Julie Fine, touched upon the company's operational plans and outlook for power demand. While specific financial figures or forward-looking guidance were not detailed in this excerpt, the conversation highlights NRG's active engagement in key energy infrastructure developments and market trends. Investors will be monitoring future announcements for concrete performance indicators and strategic execution updates.

  • 3/2/2026NEGATIVE
    LS Power to Seek $2.1 Billion in NRG Energy Share Sale

    LS Power is reportedly seeking to divest a substantial stake in NRG Energy Inc., aiming to raise up to $2.1 billion. This significant share sale, according to sources familiar with the matter, is likely to put downward pressure on NRG's stock price. Such a large block sale by a major investor like LS Power is often perceived by the market as a potential supply overhang, which could negatively impact the share valuation. Investors should closely monitor the execution of this transaction and the market's reaction, particularly given the broader context where the stock market has recently shrugged off geopolitical tensions.

  • 2/25/2026POSITIVE
    Tuesday’s Runners, 5 Fresh Ideas

    Tuesday's trading session proved highly profitable for investors following options signals, with five out of six recommendations yielding significant intraday gains. Notably, call options on NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) delivered the day's top performance, underscoring strong upside potential for the underlying stock. This success highlights the effectiveness of pre-market analysis-driven trading strategies and suggests a positive sentiment for NRG, which could continue to benefit from this upward momentum. Investors should closely monitor NRG for further opportunities.

  • 2/24/2026NEGATIVE
    NRG Energy Reports Better-Than-Expected Earnings Results

    NRG Energy reported better-than-expected earnings results before the market opened, a development that typically bodes well for investor sentiment. However, shares of the company (NASDAQ: NRG) experienced a notable decline on Tuesday. This counterintuitive market reaction suggests that investors might be focusing on other underlying factors, such as cautious future guidance, potential margin pressures, or other concerns not immediately apparent from the headline earnings figures alone. Investors should closely monitor the reasons behind this negative response, as it could indicate deeper issues beyond the quarterly numbers.

  • 5/27/2025POSITIVE
    NRG CEO Larry Coben rides the power wave as the top performing stock in the S&P 500 for 2025

    NRG Energy Inc. is riding a significant growth wave, positioning itself as one of the top-performing stocks in the S&P 500 for 2025. Under the leadership of CEO Larry Coben, NRG is implementing an aggressive strategy that includes doubling its natural gas-fired power plant fleet through targeted acquisitions. This strategic move not only strengthens its production capacity but also prepares it to thrive regardless of the data center power boom. Investors should note NRG's commitment to expanding and diversifying its energy sources, signaling a robust growth outlook and operational resilience in an evolving energy market.

via Markets Gazette