Old National Bancorp (ONB)
Fair ValueFundamental
60
Price
$24.14
Market Cap
$9.60B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Old National Bancorp is the holding company for Old National Bank, a regional bank operating 346 banking centers across the Midwest and Southeast United States. It earns money the way most commercial banks do: taking deposits, making commercial and consumer loans, and charging fees for wealth management, trust and capital-markets services. The bank traces its roots to 1834 and has grown mainly through acquisitions, most recently absorbing Bremer Financial Corporation in 2025.
How it makes money
Revenue is mostly net interest income: the spread between interest earned on loans and securities and interest paid on deposits and borrowings. Lending covers commercial, commercial real estate, residential and consumer loans. A smaller share comes from noninterest income — service charges on deposit accounts, and fees from wealth management, brokerage and capital-markets activities. Profitability rises when loan demand and interest margins are healthy and falls when credit losses or funding costs increase.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalOld National's earnings depend on the health of the regional economy: unemployment, business confidence and interest rates directly affect loan demand, credit losses and deposit costs. The company states that unfavorable economic conditions have in the past reduced earnings by weakening borrowers' ability to repay, and that tariff and geopolitical uncertainty can add further volatility.
Key risks
- Credit losses tied to economic conditions — Old National states that unfavorable or uncertain economic conditions — recession, unemployment, falling real estate values — have adversely affected, and could again affect, borrowers' ability to repay loans and the value of collateral securing them.
- Competition from banks and fintechs — The company competes with banks nationally and locally, and increasingly with financial-technology firms that have obtained bank or industrial-loan charters, which it says makes it harder to compete effectively for clients and deposits.
- Deposit funding and liquidity risk — Old National must maintain adequate deposits and wholesale funding to support lending. It warns that if it cannot maintain or grow deposits, it may face higher funding costs, and unrealized losses in its securities portfolio could affect liquidity.
- Cybersecurity and third-party vendor risk — The bank relies on external vendors and technology systems it does not fully control; a security breach or vendor failure could disrupt operations, expose customer data, and harm results, the company states.
- Capital and regulatory requirements — As a regulated bank holding company, Old National must meet capital adequacy rules set by federal regulators, who can restrict dividends or lending if requirements are not met, and standards can change over time.
The case for
Buyers argue that Old National's growth through acquisitions like Bremer has built a scale advantage across the Midwest and Southeast, that its funding base is diversified across many depositors, and that disciplined underwriting has kept credit costs manageable through past economic cycles.
The case against
Sellers fear that continued reliance on acquisitions carries integration risk, that competition from larger banks and fintech lenders pressures margins, and that a downturn in the regional economy or commercial real estate values could raise credit losses faster than reserves can absorb.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 19, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Both are Midwest commercial banks of similar scale fighting for the same middle-market business borrowers and retail deposits across the Chicago metropolitan area and southern Wisconsin, where Old National built its second home base with the First Midwest merger.
Huntington competes branch-for-branch with Old National in Indiana, Michigan and Illinois for consumer accounts and small-business and commercial credit, with far greater resources behind the same products.
Fifth Third is one of the largest deposit takers in Old National's core Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois and Tennessee markets and courts the same commercial and wealth clients there.
First Merchants is the other large Indiana-headquartered bank, chasing the same community and small-business relationships in Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and Illinois that form Old National's historic franchise.
The Cincinnati-based regional bank works the same Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio territory with a comparable mix of commercial lending, treasury services and retail branches.
The Green Bay-based bank overlaps with Old National across Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota with an almost identical offer of commercial lending, wealth management and branch retail banking to the same regional customers.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$2.74B
Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)
Net Income
$758M
Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$637M
Total Equity
$8.49B
Total Liabilities
$63.66B
Current Ratio
-
Interest Coverage
0.43
Debt/EBITDA
-
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$23.66
Current Price
$24.14
Margin of Safety
-2.0%
Fair Value Range
$17.62 - $29.71
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
12.70
ROE
7.9%
P/B Ratio
1.12
P/FCF
13.07
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
-
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
-
WACC
12.1%
ROIC − WACC
-
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (13)
- EPS shows upward trend
- P/FCF 13.07
- P/B Ratio 1.12
- Operating Margin 34.9%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 10.5%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 24.0%
- Analyst Consensus 67% Buy
- PEG Ratio 1.75
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.03
Failed (10)
- EPS CAGR 3.80%
- Price CAGR 3.15%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings Surprise avg 2.2%
- Share Dilution 16.5%
- Net Margin Trend 27.7% vs 29.2%
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9
Unavailable (5)
- ROIC NaN%
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. James C. Ryan III | CEO & Chairman | 53 |
| Mr. Timothy M. Burke Jr. | President & COO | - |
| Mr. John Vincent Moran IV | Senior Executive VP & CFO | 49 |
| Ms. Kendra L. Vanzo | Senior EVP & Chief Administrative Officer | 58 |
| Ms. Angela L. Putnam | Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 46 |
| Mr. Matthew T. Keen | Chief Information Officer | 51 |
| Lynell Durchholz CPA | Senior VP & Director of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Nicholas J. Chulos | Executive VP, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 65 |
| Ms. Kathy A. Schoettlin | Chief Communications, Culture & Social Responsibility Officer | 54 |
| Mr. James V. Stadler | Chief Marketing Officer | 61 |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
4
Compensation Risk
1
Shareholder Rights Risk
7
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-19
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-29
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-08-12
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for ONB, sourced from Markets Gazette.