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Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)

Undervalued
IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseUnited States

Fundamental

40

Price

$69.68

Market Cap

$47.07B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Rocket Lab builds and launches rockets, and increasingly builds the satellites that fly on them. Its Electron rocket carries small satellites into orbit for government agencies and commercial operators who cannot fill a larger vehicle alone, and it is developing a bigger rocket, Neutron, aimed at the larger payloads that today mostly go to SpaceX. Alongside launch, its Space Systems division designs and manufactures satellite components and full spacecraft, a business it has grown mainly through acquisitions.

How it makes money

Launch Services revenue is booked when Electron missions fly, priced per launch and per payload mass, so it depends on how many rockets get built and successfully flown in a given period. Space Systems revenue instead comes from selling hardware and engineering services under contracts that can run for months before a single item ships, so it recognizes revenue progressively as work is completed. Neutron has not yet flown commercially, so today's revenue is still almost entirely Electron launches and Space Systems contracts.

Revenue by segment

Space Systems66.9%

Design and manufacture of satellite components and complete spacecraft, built into a larger business mainly through acquisitions.

Launch Services33.1%

Electron rocket launches for government and commercial small-satellite customers, priced per mission and payload mass carried.

Competitive moat

Patents and licences · Narrow

Rocket Lab is one of very few companies anywhere that has repeatedly and reliably launched orbital rockets, a track record and set of government certifications that take years to earn and that most new entrants do not have. That edge is real in the small-launch niche, but SpaceX dominates the broader launch market by cost and cadence, and Neutron still has to prove itself before Rocket Lab can compete for larger payloads.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Government contracts, a large share of both segments, tend to be multi-year and relatively insulated from short-term economic swings, but they depend on national space and defense budgets that can shift with policy priorities. Commercial satellite demand is more cyclical, tied to how much capital satellite operators are able to raise and deploy at any given time.

Key risks

  • Concentration in government funding — A large share of revenue across both segments ultimately depends on US government space and defense budgets, and a shift in agency priorities or a funding delay can slip contracts and revenue.
  • Neutron development and execution risk — The larger Neutron rocket has not yet flown commercially and its timeline has already slipped; a further delay or a launch failure would set back Rocket Lab's ability to compete for bigger payloads.
  • Launch failures and mission risk — A single launch failure can destroy a customer's payload, trigger contract penalties, and ground the launch schedule for months while the cause is investigated and fixed.
  • Integration risk from rapid acquisitions — Space Systems has grown largely by acquiring other companies; folding their operations, contracts and engineering teams into Rocket Lab carries execution risk beyond organic growth.

Customer concentration

As of the end of 2024, Lockheed Martin and Dynetics each accounted for 15% of accounts receivable, and Rocket Lab's largest counterparty overall is the US government, whose funding decisions affect a large share of both segments.

The case for

Buyers argue that Rocket Lab's proven launch reliability and growing Space Systems business give it a rare, credible position as a full-stack space company beyond SpaceX, that Neutron opens a much larger addressable market once it flies, and that a fast-growing backlog shows real demand ahead of that capacity.

The case against

Sellers fear that Neutron's delays push out the payoff for a company still spending heavily to develop it, that SpaceX's scale and pricing dominate the broader launch market Rocket Lab is trying to enter, and that heavy reliance on government budgets and a handful of large counterparties leaves results exposed to decisions Rocket Lab does not control.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$769M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$-165M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$-322M

Total Equity

$1.72B

Total Liabilities

$603M

Current Ratio

5.48

Interest Coverage

8.64

Debt/EBITDA

-

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$109.37

Current Price

$69.68

Margin of Safety

+36.3%

Fair Value Range

$103.90 - $114.84

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$109.37
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not enough data to compute it
Earnings multiple (P/E):Not enough data to compute it
Graham growth formula:Not enough data to compute it
Earnings power value (EPV):Not enough data to compute it
Justified P/B:Not enough data to compute it
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not enough data to compute it
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$3.47
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (21B / 5H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:-4.58%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

-

ROE

-11.5%

P/B Ratio

11.94

P/FCF

-

Gross Margin

37.3%

ROIC

-4.8%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

-4.8%

WACC

18.0%

ROIC − WACC

-22.8 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (11)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 38.17%
  • Gross Margin 37.3%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 76.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 81% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 21.4%
  • Net Margin Trend -21.5% vs -45.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Failed (9)

  • ROIC -4.8%
  • P/B Ratio 11.94
  • Operating Margin -29.1%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • DCF valuation (Unknown)
  • ROE -7.6%
  • Share Dilution 7.0%

Unavailable (7)

  • P/FCF NaN
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/Net Income)

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

-

Low quality: investigate accounting

Share Dilution

7.0%

Issuing new shares, diluting ownership

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Sir Peter BeckFounder, Chairman, President & CEO48
Mr. Adam C. SpiceCFO & Treasurer56
Mr. Frank KleinChief Operations Officer52
Mr. Arjun L. Kampani J.D.Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary53
Mr. Agostino Ricupati CPAVP, Corporate Controller & Chief Accounting Officer58
Ms. Morgan Bailey ConnaughtonVice President of Marketing & Communications-
Ms. Connie LundgrenVice President of People & Culture-
Mr. Shaun O'DonnellChief Engineer of Special Projects47
Mr. Ehson MoslehSpace Systems Chief Engineer-
Mr. Marvin Bradford Clevenger Ph.D.President of Rocket Lab USA Inc.-

Audit Risk

7

Board Risk

9

Compensation Risk

9

Shareholder Rights Risk

8

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-26

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-10

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-15

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for RKLB, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 9d agoPOSITIVE
    Le azioni Rocket Lab hanno creato un pattern rialzista: è il momento di comprare?

    Rocket Lab USA, Inc. shares are showing a strong bullish pattern, having bounced from a recent low of $60 to trade just above it. The stock has formed a double-bottom pattern at the $60 mark, with a neckline resistance at $86.45. This technical setup, combined with investor buying on dips, suggests potential for a short-term continuation of the upward trend. The formation indicates a potential reversal from recent lows, signaling renewed investor interest and a possible upward trajectory for the stock.

  • 22d agoNEUTRAL
    Azioni Rocket Lab giù del 56% dal massimo annuale: opportunità d'acquisto?

    Rocket Lab USA, Inc. shares have seen a significant decline, falling 56% from their annual high of $150 to the current $65. Despite this price drop, the company has achieved several key milestones, including new contracts with Space Force, Viasat, and MDA, and the release of its Inverted Metamorphic (IMM) Apex solar cell. Analysts suggest the current pullback might present a buying opportunity, potentially forming a double-bottom pattern. The underlying demand for Rocket Lab's space services remains strong, indicating potential for future recovery and growth.

  • 29d agoPOSITIVE
    Cathie Wood acquista $31.6M di Rocket Lab: crede che la svendita sia esagerata?

    ARK Investment Management, led by Cathie Wood, has significantly increased its stake in Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ: RKLB), acquiring approximately $31.6 million worth of shares on Tuesday, following a $44 million purchase over two days. This substantial buying activity from a prominent growth-focused fund manager comes despite recent stock price pressure and a narrowing launch window for Neutron, alongside a competitor securing a NASA contract. ARK's conviction suggests they believe the market's reaction to these events is an overreaction, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors who share this long-term growth outlook for the space launch and satellite technology company.

  • 8/18/2026POSITIVE
    Le azioni Rocket Lab volano: un pattern raro indica rialzi, ma c’è un rischio

    Rocket Lab USA, Inc. shares have surged from a low of $58.25 to $82, buoyed by strong earnings and an expanding backlog. The company's stock experienced a significant uplift following a major agreement with Viasat, a key player in satellite communications. Rocket Lab will provide its high-performance Lightning spacecraft platform for Viasat's payload. This development, coupled with a rare bullish double-bottom pattern formation, suggests further short-term upside potential for RKLB investors. The deal underscores Rocket Lab's growing influence in the space sector.

  • 8/10/2026NEGATIVE
    Rocket Lab reveals some big plans, but its stock is dropping on mixed earnings

    Rocket Lab USA, Inc. reported mixed financial results, leading to a stock price decline despite ambitious expansion plans. The company is focusing on extending its European presence and growing its order backlog, signaling potential future revenue streams. However, the immediate market reaction suggests that current earnings or forward guidance did not meet investor expectations, overshadowing the long-term strategic initiatives. Investors will be closely monitoring the execution of these expansion plans and their impact on profitability in upcoming quarters.

  • 8/10/2026POSITIVE
    RocketLab Rises on Space Interest; Moderna Moves on Flu Shot | Stock Movers

    RocketLab USA Inc. saw its shares climb, continuing a positive trend from the previous Friday. This upward movement follows recent earnings reports from SpaceX, indicating a broader positive sentiment within the space industry. Investors are likely reacting to the competitive landscape and potential growth opportunities highlighted by these industry players. The renewed interest in space exploration and commercialization, coupled with SpaceX's performance, appears to be boosting investor confidence in RocketLab's prospects.

  • 7/8/2026POSITIVE
    Rocket Lab’s stock could surge 250% as the company takes a page out of SpaceX’s book, analyst says

    Morgan Stanley has upgraded its outlook on Rocket Lab USA, Inc., citing a significantly improved bull case driven by business diversification. The firm suggests the stock could experience a substantial surge of up to 250%. This optimistic projection is attributed to Rocket Lab adopting strategies similar to SpaceX, indicating a potential for accelerated growth and market expansion. Investors are watching closely as the company's strategic pivot aims to unlock new revenue streams and enhance its competitive position in the aerospace sector.

  • 6/29/2026POSITIVE
    Rocket Lab to Buy Iridium in Challenge to SpaceX

    Rocket Lab is set to acquire satellite communications firm Iridium Communications Inc. for $54 per share in a cash-and-stock deal, aiming to bolster its position in the orbital economy and challenge market leader SpaceX. The acquisition, valued at approximately $2.9 billion, will integrate Iridium's satellite constellation and services with Rocket Lab's launch capabilities. This strategic move is expected to enhance Rocket Lab's revenue streams and market competitiveness, potentially leading to increased investor interest and a re-evaluation of its growth prospects.

  • 6/26/2026POSITIVE
    Rocket Lab Rises on NASA Selection; Microsoft Down on Tech Selloff | Stock Movers

    Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is experiencing a surge in its stock price following a significant announcement from NASA. The space exploration company has been selected by the U.S. space agency to provide three Electron launches for two distinct missions, PolSIR and TSIS-2. These launches are scheduled to commence in early 2027. This selection by NASA underscores Rocket Lab's capabilities and its growing role in the space launch sector, providing a strong positive outlook for the company's future revenue streams and technological advancements. Investors are likely to view this as a key validation and a driver for future growth.

via Markets Gazette