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United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

Undervalued
IndustrialsAirlinesUnited States

Fundamental

73

Price

$110.47

Market Cap

$36.09B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

United Airlines operates a global network of passenger and cargo flights built around hub airports — Newark, Chicago O'Hare, Houston, Denver, San Francisco and others — where it connects passengers from smaller cities onto longer-haul routes. It flies under its own brand and through regional partners operating smaller aircraft on its behalf. Beyond flying, MileagePlus, its frequent-flyer program, sells miles to a co-branded credit card partner and airline partners, a business that has become an important source of profit in its own right.

How it makes money

Most revenue comes from selling seats: fares, plus a growing premium mix from first/business class and extra-legroom economy, which carries higher margins than the base ticket. Cargo revenue comes from freight capacity sold in the belly of passenger aircraft. A smaller but fast-growing slice — loyalty revenue — comes from selling MileagePlus miles to its co-branded credit card issuer and partners, a fee-based business that is far less capital-intensive and far more profitable than flying planes.

Revenue by segment

Passenger90.5%

Fares from flying passengers on United's own network and through regional partners, including a growing share of higher-margin premium seating.

Other operating revenue6.5%

Mainly loyalty revenue from selling MileagePlus miles to its co-branded credit card partner and other partners, plus ancillary fees.

Cargo3%

Freight capacity sold in the cargo hold of passenger aircraft, a small but steady complement to passenger flying.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Narrow

United's hub-and-spoke network gives it a dominant position and limited take-off and landing slots at airports like Newark and Chicago O'Hare, which is hard for a new entrant to replicate. Its MileagePlus loyalty program and co-branded credit card also give frequent flyers a reason to keep choosing United over a cheaper fare elsewhere, though airline seats remain largely interchangeable and price-sensitive travelers switch readily when fares diverge.

What drives demand

Cyclical

Air travel demand tracks the broader economy closely: business travel budgets and discretionary leisure spending both contract quickly in a downturn, while jet fuel — a major cost — moves with oil prices that United does not control. High fixed costs from aircraft and labor mean a modest revenue decline can hit profits hard, which is why airline earnings have historically swung more sharply than the economy itself.

Key risks

  • Jet fuel prices are largely outside its control — Fuel is one of the largest operating costs and its price is set by global oil markets United cannot influence; a sustained spike compresses margins faster than fares can be raised to compensate.
  • Heavily unionized workforce — Pilots, flight attendants and other employee groups are represented by unions whose contract negotiations can raise labor costs materially or, if talks break down, disrupt operations through strikes or slowdowns.
  • Demand is highly sensitive to the economy — Both business and leisure travel contract quickly when the economy weakens, and United's high fixed costs from aircraft leases and long-term labor contracts make it hard to cut expenses as fast as revenue can fall.
  • Safety incidents and regulatory disruption — An accident, a serious safety lapse, or a broader regulatory grounding of aircraft types it operates could ground part of the fleet, damage the brand and trigger significant unplanned costs.
  • Weather and air-traffic-control disruption — Severe weather, air-traffic-control staffing shortages and other operational disruptions can cause widespread flight cancellations, which are costly to passengers and to United's own reputation and finances.

The case for

Buyers argue that United's hub network, slot-constrained gates at major airports and a fast-growing, high-margin loyalty and credit-card business give it earnings power that is more durable and less cyclical than the airline's history of boom-and-bust profits would suggest.

The case against

Sellers worry that airline seats remain a largely undifferentiated product bought mostly on price, that fuel costs and unionized labor are both largely outside United's control, and that high fixed costs from aircraft and long-term contracts mean profits fall faster than revenue whenever the economy or travel demand turns down.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

No editorial profile for this company yet

No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$62.90B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$3.50B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$2.56B

Total Equity

$15.28B

Total Liabilities

$61.17B

Current Ratio

0.78

Interest Coverage

3.68

Debt/EBITDA

4.40

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

CyclicalUndervalued

Fair Value

$184.38

Current Price

$110.47

Margin of Safety

+40.1%

Fair Value Range

$134.90 - $233.85

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$157.50
Discounted cash flow (DCF):Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings multiple (P/E):$91.69
Graham growth formula:Not applicable to this type of company
Earnings power value (EPV):$96.86
Justified P/B:Not applicable to this type of company
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not applicable to this type of company
P/FFO, funds from operations:Not applicable to this type of company
Mid-cycle earnings:$237.79
Revenue multiple:Not applicable to this type of company
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (26B / 4H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+5.03%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

10.40

ROE

21.9%

P/B Ratio

2.16

P/FCF

14.16

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

6.8%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

6.8%

WACC

7.9%

ROIC − WACC

-1.1 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (19)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • ROIC 6.8%
  • P/FCF 14.16
  • P/B Ratio 2.16
  • Operating Margin 7.7%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 22.5%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 30.9%
  • Analyst Consensus 87% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 6.0%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.55
  • Share Dilution -1.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (5)

  • Price CAGR 4.27%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • Net Margin Trend 5.6% vs 5.7%

Unavailable (3)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

2.55

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-1.4%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. J. Scott KirbyCEO & Director58
Mr. Brett J. Hart J.D.President55
Mr. Michael D. Leskinen CFAExecutive VP & CFO45
Mr. Torbjorn J. EnqvistExecutive VP & COO53
Mr. Andrew P. NocellaExecutive VP & Chief Commercial Officer55
Ms. Brigitte BokemeierVP, Principal Accounting Officer & Controller47
Mr. Jason BirnbaumChief Information Officer53
Ms. Kristina Munoz EdwardsManaging Director of Investor Relations-
Mr. Josh EarnestExecutive VP of Communications & Advertising-
Ms. Doreen BurseSenior Vice President of Worldwide Sales-

Audit Risk

9

Board Risk

3

Compensation Risk

5

Shareholder Rights Risk

10

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-12

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-07-16

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-07-15

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for UAL, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 15d agoNEGATIVE
    United, American Say Fuel-Cost Surge May Require Capacity Cuts

    United Airlines and American Airlines are signaling potential capacity reductions for the fourth quarter due to persistent high fuel costs. This announcement suggests that the airlines may ground more flights or reduce service frequency to offset the increasing operational expenses driven by elevated jet fuel prices. For investors, this indicates a challenging operating environment that could impact revenue and profitability, potentially leading to downward revisions in earnings forecasts and affecting stock performance.

  • 8/25/2026POSITIVE
    United Airlines CEO on Expansion Plans, Airfares, Demand

    United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby outlined the company's most significant international expansion, adding 10 new destinations in Europe and Asia. This strategic move is supported by robust customer demand and a strong US economy, according to Kirby. The airline also plans to mitigate the impact of rising oil prices, signaling operational resilience. For investors, this aggressive growth strategy, coupled with positive demand indicators and proactive cost management, suggests a bullish outlook for United Airlines, potentially leading to increased market share and revenue.

  • 7/19/2026POSITIVE
    How United’s ‘premiumization’ strategy got passengers to swallow higher airfares without a fight

    United Airlines reported strong second-quarter earnings, demonstrating the success of its 'premiumization' strategy. Despite rising fuel costs and higher airfares, passengers have largely accepted the increased prices without significant pushback. This indicates robust demand and effective pricing power for the airline. The company's ability to maintain passenger volume and revenue growth in a challenging cost environment suggests operational efficiency and a strong brand appeal, which are positive indicators for investors looking at the airline sector.

  • 7/15/2026NEGATIVE
    United Airlines gets hit by a $6 billion added-fuel-cost headwind

    United Airlines has disclosed a significant financial headwind, projecting nearly $6 billion in additional fuel expenses for the current year. This substantial increase in operating costs, primarily driven by volatile jet fuel prices, directly impacts the airline's profitability. Investors will be scrutinizing the company's strategies to mitigate these higher expenses, such as potential fare adjustments or cost-saving measures, as this could significantly affect future earnings and cash flow. The news casts a shadow over the company's near-term financial outlook.

  • 6/30/2026POSITIVE
    U.S. airline stocks are soaring as cheaper jet fuel and insatiable demand set up a summer boom

    U.S. airline stocks, including United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, are experiencing a significant rally, with the sector up 20% in June. This surge is attributed to falling jet fuel prices and robust consumer demand for air travel, signaling a strong summer season. United shares are approaching record highs, reflecting optimism about the industry's profitability. Investors are encouraged by the combination of lower operating costs and sustained passenger traffic, which points to a favorable earnings outlook for the airlines.

  • 6/17/2026NEUTRAL
    Here's How Much $1000 Invested In United Airlines Holdings 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today

    An investment of $1000 in United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) five years ago would have yielded approximately $200 today, representing a 79.9% loss. This historical performance data highlights the volatility and risk associated with airline stocks over the past half-decade. While the article does not provide forward-looking guidance or specific catalysts, it serves as a retrospective financial snapshot for potential investors considering the airline sector.

  • 6/8/2026NEUTRAL
    United Airlines CEO on Demand, Consumers, Oil Prices

    United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby reported that US airline demand and capacity remain robust, with consumers showing resilience despite fare hikes. These increases are attributed to a surge in oil prices, exacerbated by the conflict in Iran. Kirby's comments, made at IATA in Rio de Janeiro, suggest that while external geopolitical factors are influencing operational costs, the core consumer appetite for air travel in the US remains strong. Investors will monitor the balance between sustained demand and rising fuel expenses.

  • 5/11/2026NEUTRAL
    United Revives Junk-Rated Muni Sale in Tough Time for Airlines

    United Airlines is attempting to issue $256 million in junk-rated municipal bonds, a market it previously withdrew from due to volatility. This move signals the company's ongoing need for financing, even in challenging market conditions for the airline sector. The 'junk-rated' status indicates a higher risk profile for the debt, which may appeal to investors seeking higher yields but also carries greater default risk. The success of this sale could provide United with crucial liquidity, but its 'junk' rating suggests potential underlying financial strain.

  • 4/27/2026POSITIVE
    United Airlines CEO says a proposed merger would benefit travelers, but American still won’t return his calls

    United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby stated that a potential merger would benefit travelers, despite ongoing communication challenges with American Airlines. The news follows reports from two weeks prior that Kirby had proposed combining two major U.S. airlines to the White House, which subsequently caused both airlines' stocks to surge. Investors are watching closely for any developments that could lead to consolidation in the U.S. airline industry, as such a move could significantly alter market dynamics and potentially improve profitability for the merged entity.

via Markets Gazette