Universal Music Group N.V. (UMGNF)
ÜberbewertetFundamental
55
Kurs
$14.13
Marktkapitalisierung
$26.04B
Teil 1 · Was das Unternehmen wert ist
Übersicht
Universal Music Group signs recording artists and songwriters, funds and markets their music, and owns the resulting recordings and song rights, collecting money whenever that music is streamed, broadcast, licensed for film and advertising, or sold as a physical record. It is the largest of the three major music companies (alongside Sony Music and Warner Music), with a roster of labels spanning pop, hip-hop, country and classical, and it also runs a publishing arm that owns rights to the songs themselves, separate from the recordings.
Wie das Geld verdient wird
Most revenue now comes from digital streaming subscriptions and ad-supported platforms, which pay UMG a share of subscriber fees or advertising revenue based on how often its music is played, plus fixed licensing payments negotiated directly with a handful of large platforms. A smaller share still comes from physical album sales, and Music Publishing earns separately whenever a song UMG controls the rights to is performed, synced to video or covered by another artist, regardless of who recorded it.
Umsatz nach Segment
Revenue from streaming, physical sales and licensing of the recordings UMG owns or distributes for its signed artists.
Royalties earned whenever a song UMG controls the rights to is performed, streamed, synced to video or covered by another artist.
Artist merchandise and other smaller revenue lines not broken out separately.
Was die Nachfrage antreibt
DefensivMusic listening is a habitual, low-cost activity that holds up well across the economic cycle, and most revenue now comes from recurring subscriptions rather than discretionary purchases. Growth instead depends on how fast streaming subscriptions and pricing keep expanding worldwide, and on the terms UMG can negotiate with a small number of dominant streaming platforms it depends on for distribution.
Wichtigste Risiken
- Streaming growth may slow — The company names the failure of streaming and subscription adoption or revenue to grow, or to grow as rapidly as anticipated, as a key risk to its results.
- Dependence on a few digital platforms — UMG relies on a small number of large digital service providers for distribution; changes those platforms make to subscription pricing, royalty structures or recommendation algorithms can directly affect UMG's revenue growth.
- Generative AI and copyright uncertainty — The company faces uncertainty from evolving copyright, data privacy and artificial intelligence regulation in the US and Europe, as generative AI raises new questions about how music rights are used and compensated.
- Competition to sign and retain artists — The company names its ability to compete successfully to identify, attract, sign and retain successful recording artists and songwriters as a material risk, since the roster of talent is the source of everything else it sells.
Written by the editors, published on 18. August 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
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Bilanz & Liquidität
Umsatz
$18.37B
Letzte 12 Monate bis zum zuletzt gemeldeten Quartal — Schätzung aus Kennzahlen je Aktie
Nettogewinn
$315M
Letzte 12 Monate bis zum zuletzt gemeldeten Quartal — Schätzung aus Kennzahlen je Aktie
Freier Cashflow
$1.79B
Gesamtes Eigenkapital
$3.60B
Gesamtverbindlichkeiten
$5.56B
Current Ratio
0.61
Zinsdeckungsgrad
-
Schulden/EBITDA
2.52
Gewinn je Aktie
Umsatz & Nettogewinn
Freier Cashflow
Ertragsaufschlüsselung
Historische Aufstellung
Margen im Zeitverlauf
Verschuldung im Zeitverlauf
Wie schwer die Schulden wiegen
Wachstumsraster
Wachstum — Umsatz
Innerer-Wert-Schätzung
Innerer Wert
$11.16
Aktueller Kurs
$14.13
Sicherheitsmarge
-26.6%
Innerer-Wert-Spanne
$7.25 - $15.07
Streubreite zwischen den verwendeten Bewertungsmethoden, kein statistisch kalibriertes Konfidenzintervall.
Bewertungsmethoden
Bewertungskennzahlen
P/E-Verhältnis
81.47
ROE
7.7%
P/B-Verhältnis
7.13
P/FCF
14.53
Bruttomarge
28.6%
ROIC
16.5%
Rentabilitäts-Radar
Wertschöpfung (Wettbewerbsvorteil)
ROIC
16.5%
WACC
9.2%
ROIC − WACC
+7.3 pp
Der ROIC übersteigt die Kapitalkosten: Das Unternehmen schafft Wert für die Aktionäre.
Fundamentalanalyse-Kriterien
Bestanden (12)
- ROIC 16.5%
- P/FCF 14.53
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 22.9%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Debt/EBITDA
- ROE 7.9%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 11.0%
- Analyst Consensus 57% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 8.1%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.08
Nicht bestanden (9)
- Price CAGR -7.68%
- Gross Margin 28.6%
- P/B Ratio 7.13
- Current Ratio
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
- PEG Ratio 4.26
- Net Margin Trend 12.3% vs 17.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Nicht verfügbar (6)
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-Score
Ernsthafte finanzielle Bedenken
Gewinnqualität
Hohe Qualität: Gewinne durch Cashflow gedeckt
Aktienverwässerung
Aktienrückkäufe. Aktionärsfreundlich
Institutionelle Beteiligungen
Für dieses Unternehmen liegen keine institutionellen Meldungen vor.
Unternehmensführung
Führungsteam
| Name | Position | Alter |
|---|---|---|
| Sir Lucian Grainge CBE | Chairman & CEO | 65 |
| Mr. Vincent Vallejo | Deputy CEO of Corporate & Executive Director | 64 |
| Mr. Matthew D. Ellis | Chief Financial Officer | 54 |
| Mr. Boyd Muir | Executive VP & COO | 65 |
| Mr. Will Tanous | Executive VP & Chief Administrative Officer | 56 |
| Mr. Jeffrey Harleston J.D. | General Counsel and Executive VP of Business & Legal Affairs | 63 |
| Mr. Eric Hutcherson | Executive VP and Chief People & Inclusion Officer | 55 |
| Mr. Michael Nash | Executive VP & Chief Digital Officer | 68 |
| Ms. Tseyin Foo | President of Global Supply Chain | - |
| Mr. Philippe Flageul | Executive VP & Controller | 60 |
Prüfungsrisiko
4
Vorstandsrisiko
1
Vergütungsrisiko
10
Aktionärsrechterisiko
4
Teil 2 · Der Preis und der Einstiegszeitpunkt
Dieser Teil sagt nicht, ob das Unternehmen etwas taugt: Er hilft bei der Wahl des Kaufzeitpunkts, nachdem die Fundamentaldaten überzeugt haben. Enthalten: technische Analyse, Potenzial, historische Drawdowns, Gamma-Exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for UMGNF, sourced from Markets Gazette.