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Universal Music Group N.V. (UMGNF)

Überbewertet
Communication ServicesEntertainmentNetherlands

Fundamental

55

Kurs

$14.13

Marktkapitalisierung

$26.04B

Teil 1 · Was das Unternehmen wert ist

Übersicht

Universal Music Group signs recording artists and songwriters, funds and markets their music, and owns the resulting recordings and song rights, collecting money whenever that music is streamed, broadcast, licensed for film and advertising, or sold as a physical record. It is the largest of the three major music companies (alongside Sony Music and Warner Music), with a roster of labels spanning pop, hip-hop, country and classical, and it also runs a publishing arm that owns rights to the songs themselves, separate from the recordings.

Wie das Geld verdient wird

Most revenue now comes from digital streaming subscriptions and ad-supported platforms, which pay UMG a share of subscriber fees or advertising revenue based on how often its music is played, plus fixed licensing payments negotiated directly with a handful of large platforms. A smaller share still comes from physical album sales, and Music Publishing earns separately whenever a song UMG controls the rights to is performed, synced to video or covered by another artist, regardless of who recorded it.

Umsatz nach Segment

Recorded Music75.6%

Revenue from streaming, physical sales and licensing of the recordings UMG owns or distributes for its signed artists.

Music Publishing17.6%

Royalties earned whenever a song UMG controls the rights to is performed, streamed, synced to video or covered by another artist.

Merchandising and other6.8%

Artist merchandise and other smaller revenue lines not broken out separately.

Was die Nachfrage antreibt

Defensiv

Music listening is a habitual, low-cost activity that holds up well across the economic cycle, and most revenue now comes from recurring subscriptions rather than discretionary purchases. Growth instead depends on how fast streaming subscriptions and pricing keep expanding worldwide, and on the terms UMG can negotiate with a small number of dominant streaming platforms it depends on for distribution.

Wichtigste Risiken

  • Streaming growth may slow — The company names the failure of streaming and subscription adoption or revenue to grow, or to grow as rapidly as anticipated, as a key risk to its results.
  • Dependence on a few digital platforms — UMG relies on a small number of large digital service providers for distribution; changes those platforms make to subscription pricing, royalty structures or recommendation algorithms can directly affect UMG's revenue growth.
  • Generative AI and copyright uncertainty — The company faces uncertainty from evolving copyright, data privacy and artificial intelligence regulation in the US and Europe, as generative AI raises new questions about how music rights are used and compensated.
  • Competition to sign and retain artists — The company names its ability to compete successfully to identify, attract, sign and retain successful recording artists and songwriters as a material risk, since the roster of talent is the source of everything else it sells.

Written by the editors, published on 18. August 2026

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Who this company fights with for the same customers

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Bilanz & Liquidität

Umsatz

$18.37B

Letzte 12 Monate bis zum zuletzt gemeldeten Quartal — Schätzung aus Kennzahlen je Aktie

Nettogewinn

$315M

Letzte 12 Monate bis zum zuletzt gemeldeten Quartal — Schätzung aus Kennzahlen je Aktie

Freier Cashflow

$1.79B

Gesamtes Eigenkapital

$3.60B

Gesamtverbindlichkeiten

$5.56B

Current Ratio

0.61

Zinsdeckungsgrad

-

Schulden/EBITDA

2.52

Gewinn je Aktie

Umsatz & Nettogewinn

Freier Cashflow

Ertragsaufschlüsselung

Historische Aufstellung

Margen im Zeitverlauf

Verschuldung im Zeitverlauf

Wie schwer die Schulden wiegen

Wachstumsraster

Wachstum — Umsatz

Innerer-Wert-Schätzung

Allgemeiner FallÜberbewertet

Innerer Wert

$11.16

Aktueller Kurs

$14.13

Sicherheitsmarge

-26.6%

Innerer-Wert-Spanne

$7.25 - $15.07

Streubreite zwischen den verwendeten Bewertungsmethoden, kein statistisch kalibriertes Konfidenzintervall.

Bewertungsmethoden

Kursziel der Analysten:$21.92
Diskontierter Cashflow (DCF):$11.60
Gewinnmultiplikator (P/E):$2.57
Graham-Wachstumsformel:$1.95
Ertragskraftwert (EPV):$16.69
Gerechtfertigtes P/B:$1.51
Dividendendiskontierung (Gordon):$6.52
P/FFO, Funds from Operations:Nicht genügend Daten zur Berechnung
Gewinn im Zyklusmittel:Nicht genügend Daten zur Berechnung
Umsatzmultiplikator:$20.99
Analystenkonsens:Kaufen (16B / 8H / 4S)
Letzte Gewinnüberraschung:+10.28%

Bewertungskennzahlen

P/E-Verhältnis

81.47

ROE

7.7%

P/B-Verhältnis

7.13

P/FCF

14.53

Bruttomarge

28.6%

ROIC

16.5%

Rentabilitäts-Radar

Wertschöpfung (Wettbewerbsvorteil)

ROIC

16.5%

WACC

9.2%

ROIC − WACC

+7.3 pp

Der ROIC übersteigt die Kapitalkosten: Das Unternehmen schafft Wert für die Aktionäre.

Fundamentalanalyse-Kriterien

Bestanden (12)

  • ROIC 16.5%
  • P/FCF 14.53
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 22.9%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • ROE 7.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 11.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 57% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 8.1%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.08

Nicht bestanden (9)

  • Price CAGR -7.68%
  • Gross Margin 28.6%
  • P/B Ratio 7.13
  • Current Ratio
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • PEG Ratio 4.26
  • Net Margin Trend 12.3% vs 17.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

Nicht verfügbar (6)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Piotroski F-Score

2/9

Ernsthafte finanzielle Bedenken

score
criteria

Gewinnqualität

1.08

Hohe Qualität: Gewinne durch Cashflow gedeckt

Aktienverwässerung

-

Aktienrückkäufe. Aktionärsfreundlich

Institutionelle Beteiligungen

Für dieses Unternehmen liegen keine institutionellen Meldungen vor.

Unternehmensführung

Führungsteam

NamePositionAlter
Sir Lucian Grainge CBEChairman & CEO65
Mr. Vincent VallejoDeputy CEO of Corporate & Executive Director64
Mr. Matthew D. EllisChief Financial Officer54
Mr. Boyd MuirExecutive VP & COO65
Mr. Will TanousExecutive VP & Chief Administrative Officer56
Mr. Jeffrey Harleston J.D.General Counsel and Executive VP of Business & Legal Affairs63
Mr. Eric HutchersonExecutive VP and Chief People & Inclusion Officer55
Mr. Michael NashExecutive VP & Chief Digital Officer68
Ms. Tseyin FooPresident of Global Supply Chain-
Mr. Philippe FlageulExecutive VP & Controller60

Prüfungsrisiko

4

Vorstandsrisiko

1

Vergütungsrisiko

10

Aktionärsrechterisiko

4

Teil 2 · Der Preis und der Einstiegszeitpunkt

Dieser Teil sagt nicht, ob das Unternehmen etwas taugt: Er hilft bei der Wahl des Kaufzeitpunkts, nachdem die Fundamentaldaten überzeugt haben. Enthalten: technische Analyse, Potenzial, historische Drawdowns, Gamma-Exposure.

Latest News

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