Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAY)
Sous-évaluéFondamental
84
Prix
$14.74
Capitalisation boursière
$87.20B
Partie 1 · Ce que vaut l'entreprise
Vue d'ensemble
Cathay Pacific is Hong Kong's home airline, flying passengers and freight between Hong Kong and destinations across Asia, North America, Europe and Australia, using the city's international airport as its hub. The group also owns the low-cost carrier HK Express and a large cargo operation that flies dedicated freighter aircraft. Its business depends on Hong Kong remaining an attractive stopover point for travellers and shippers moving between Asia and the rest of the world.
Comment l'entreprise gagne de l'argent
The airline sells seats and cargo space on scheduled flights; revenue is booked when a passenger flies or a shipment moves, and results move with two separate drivers — how full the planes are (load factor) and how much each seat or kilogram of cargo fetches (yield). Fuel is the single largest cost, so profitability is squeezed whenever oil prices rise faster than fares and freight rates can be adjusted.
Chiffre d'affaires par segment
Passenger flights on Cathay Pacific and HK Express, plus catering, engineering and other airline-related services; not broken out separately in reported results.
Dedicated freighter and belly-hold cargo capacity, which carried 1.67 million tonnes in 2025 for HK$24.3 billion in revenue.
Avantage concurrentiel
Économies d'échelle · ÉtroitCathay's position as the dominant carrier at Hong Kong International Airport, with decades of accumulated route rights, slots and a large widebody fleet, gives it a real hub advantage that a new entrant could not quickly replicate. The advantage is narrow: airlines compete hard on price for the same passengers, and Cathay's own results show yields falling under regional competition even as the hub advantage holds.
Ce qui stimule la demande
CycliqueAir travel and air freight demand rise and fall with global trade and travel activity, and fares fall quickly whenever regional airlines add capacity, as happened across Asia in 2025 as carriers restored seats after the pandemic. Jet fuel, priced off volatile crude oil, is a further swing factor the airline can only partly hedge.
Principaux risques
- Geopolitical route disruption — A volatile geopolitical environment can force sudden route cancellations and reroutings, as happened when the group cancelled all flights to Dubai and Riyadh in response to Middle East tensions, cutting capacity with little notice.
- Fuel price volatility — Jet fuel is one of the largest items on the airline's cost base; management has hedged only around 30% of anticipated 2026 fuel needs at roughly $70 a barrel for Brent crude, leaving most of the exposure unhedged.
- Regional competition on fares — Asian airlines restoring post-pandemic capacity pushed fares down across the region in 2025, cutting Cathay Pacific's full-service yield by 12% and low-cost subsidiary HK Express's yield by 23% year on year.
Les arguments en faveur
Buyers argue that Cathay's Hong Kong hub advantage remains intact, that group profit rose to HK$10.8 billion in 2025 on record passenger volumes, and that continued long-haul network expansion to North America and Europe positions the airline to keep capturing recovering travel demand.
Les arguments contre
Sellers worry that regional overcapacity is already pushing fares and yields down, that geopolitical shocks can force route cancellations with almost no warning, and that with most of its fuel exposure unhedged a sustained rise in oil prices would hit margins hard just as competitive pressure caps how much fares can rise.
Written by the editors, published on 18 août 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on 18 septembre 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
The other premium Asian hub carrier, competing directly for long-haul premium and connecting traffic between Southeast Asia, Europe, Australia and North America.
Dubai's hub carrier competes for the same Asia-to-Europe, Africa and Middle East connecting passengers that Cathay routes through Hong Kong.
The largest mainland Chinese carrier competes on price and capacity for Chinese outbound travellers on regional and long-haul routes Cathay feeds through Hong Kong.
Seoul Incheon is a rival Northeast Asian transfer hub disputing the same transpacific and Asia-Europe connecting flows.
State-owned Gulf carrier that draws Asian passengers onto its Doha hub for Europe, Africa and the Americas, the same one-stop itineraries Cathay sells.
Privately held rival operating from the same home airport, competing head-on with Cathay on Asia-Pacific regional routes where yields have been falling.
Bilan & Liquidités
Chiffre d'affaires
$126.50B
12 derniers mois jusqu'au dernier trimestre publié — estimation à partir de ratios par action
Résultat net
$12.54B
12 derniers mois jusqu'au dernier trimestre publié — estimation à partir de ratios par action
Flux de trésorerie libre
$15.46B
Capitaux propres totaux
$58.02B
Passif total
$63.49B
Ratio de liquidité général
0.44
Couverture des intérêts
-
Dette/EBITDA
2.79
Bénéfice par action
Chiffre d'affaires & Résultat net
Flux de trésorerie libre
Décomposition du résultat
État historique
Marges dans le temps
La dette dans le temps
Le poids de la dette
Grille de la croissance
Croissance — Chiffre d'affaires
Estimation de la juste valeur
Juste valeur
$19.76
Prix actuel
$14.74
Marge de sécurité
+25.4%
Fourchette de juste valeur
$15.37 - $24.16
Écart entre les méthodes de valorisation utilisées, pas un intervalle de confiance calibré statistiquement.
Méthodes d'estimation
Indicateurs de valorisation
Ratio P/E
7.15
ROE
24.5%
Ratio P/B
1.54
P/FCF
5.64
Marge brute
65.2%
ROIC
8.2%
Radar de rentabilité
Création de valeur (avantage concurrentiel)
ROIC
8.2%
WACC
4.6%
ROIC − WACC
+3.6 pp
Le ROIC dépasse le coût du capital — l'entreprise crée de la valeur pour les actionnaires.
Critères d'analyse fondamentale
Réussi (16)
- ROIC 8.2%
- Gross Margin 65.2%
- P/FCF 5.64
- P/B Ratio 1.54
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 12.3%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Debt/EBITDA
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Undervalued)
- ROE 22.7%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 20.0%
- Analyst Consensus 75% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 50.5%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.58
- Net Margin Trend 9.3% vs 9.2%
Échoué (4)
- Price CAGR 4.57%
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Indisponible (7)
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Score F de Piotroski
Préoccupations financières sérieuses
Qualité des bénéfices
Qualité élevée : bénéfices soutenus par la trésorerie
Dilution du capital
Rachat d'actions. Favorable aux actionnaires
Participations institutionnelles
Aucune déclaration institutionnelle pour cette entreprise.
Gouvernance
Équipe dirigeante
| Nom | Titre | Âge |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Guy Martin Coutts Bradley J.P. | Executive Chairman of the Board | 59 |
| Mr. Siu Por Lam | CEO & Executive Director | 52 |
| Ms. Rebecca Jane Sharpe | CFO & Executive Director | 54 |
| Mr. James John McGowan | Chief Operations & Service Delivery Officer and Executive Director | 52 |
| Ms. Hoi Zee Lau | Chief Customer & Commercial Officer and Executive Director | 54 |
| Mr. Keith Fung | General Manager of Corporate Finance | - |
| Ms. Joanna Lai | Group General Counsel & Company Secretary | 40 |
| Ms. Patricia Hwang | Director of People | - |
| Christopher J. Buckley | Head of Financial Service | - |
| Mr. Jonathan Ng | Regional Head of Customer Travel & Lifestyle - Southeast Asia | - |
Risque d'audit
3
Risque du conseil
4
Risque de rémunération
5
Risque droits des actionnaires
8
Partie 2 · Le prix et le moment d'entrer
Cette partie ne dit pas si l'entreprise vaut la peine : elle aide à choisir quand l'acheter, une fois que les fondamentaux vous ont convaincu. À l'intérieur : analyse technique, potentiel, baisses historiques, exposition gamma.
Latest News
Recent headlines for CPCAY, sourced from Markets Gazette.