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Cathay Pacific Airways Limited (CPCAY)

Sous-évalué
IndustrialsAirlinesHong Kong

Fondamental

84

Prix

$14.74

Capitalisation boursière

$87.20B

Partie 1 · Ce que vaut l'entreprise

Vue d'ensemble

Cathay Pacific is Hong Kong's home airline, flying passengers and freight between Hong Kong and destinations across Asia, North America, Europe and Australia, using the city's international airport as its hub. The group also owns the low-cost carrier HK Express and a large cargo operation that flies dedicated freighter aircraft. Its business depends on Hong Kong remaining an attractive stopover point for travellers and shippers moving between Asia and the rest of the world.

Comment l'entreprise gagne de l'argent

The airline sells seats and cargo space on scheduled flights; revenue is booked when a passenger flies or a shipment moves, and results move with two separate drivers — how full the planes are (load factor) and how much each seat or kilogram of cargo fetches (yield). Fuel is the single largest cost, so profitability is squeezed whenever oil prices rise faster than fares and freight rates can be adjusted.

Chiffre d'affaires par segment

Passenger and Other79.2%

Passenger flights on Cathay Pacific and HK Express, plus catering, engineering and other airline-related services; not broken out separately in reported results.

Cargo20.8%

Dedicated freighter and belly-hold cargo capacity, which carried 1.67 million tonnes in 2025 for HK$24.3 billion in revenue.

Avantage concurrentiel

Économies d'échelle · Étroit

Cathay's position as the dominant carrier at Hong Kong International Airport, with decades of accumulated route rights, slots and a large widebody fleet, gives it a real hub advantage that a new entrant could not quickly replicate. The advantage is narrow: airlines compete hard on price for the same passengers, and Cathay's own results show yields falling under regional competition even as the hub advantage holds.

Ce qui stimule la demande

Cyclique

Air travel and air freight demand rise and fall with global trade and travel activity, and fares fall quickly whenever regional airlines add capacity, as happened across Asia in 2025 as carriers restored seats after the pandemic. Jet fuel, priced off volatile crude oil, is a further swing factor the airline can only partly hedge.

Principaux risques

  • Geopolitical route disruption — A volatile geopolitical environment can force sudden route cancellations and reroutings, as happened when the group cancelled all flights to Dubai and Riyadh in response to Middle East tensions, cutting capacity with little notice.
  • Fuel price volatility — Jet fuel is one of the largest items on the airline's cost base; management has hedged only around 30% of anticipated 2026 fuel needs at roughly $70 a barrel for Brent crude, leaving most of the exposure unhedged.
  • Regional competition on fares — Asian airlines restoring post-pandemic capacity pushed fares down across the region in 2025, cutting Cathay Pacific's full-service yield by 12% and low-cost subsidiary HK Express's yield by 23% year on year.

Les arguments en faveur

Buyers argue that Cathay's Hong Kong hub advantage remains intact, that group profit rose to HK$10.8 billion in 2025 on record passenger volumes, and that continued long-haul network expansion to North America and Europe positions the airline to keep capturing recovering travel demand.

Les arguments contre

Sellers worry that regional overcapacity is already pushing fares and yields down, that geopolitical shocks can force route cancellations with almost no warning, and that with most of its fuel exposure unhedged a sustained rise in oil prices would hit margins hard just as competitive pressure caps how much fares can rise.

Written by the editors, published on 18 août 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on 18 septembre 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Singapore Airlines LimitedC6L

The other premium Asian hub carrier, competing directly for long-haul premium and connecting traffic between Southeast Asia, Europe, Australia and North America.

EmiratesNot tracked

Dubai's hub carrier competes for the same Asia-to-Europe, Africa and Middle East connecting passengers that Cathay routes through Hong Kong.

China Southern Airlines Company Limited (中国南方航空)Not tracked

The largest mainland Chinese carrier competes on price and capacity for Chinese outbound travellers on regional and long-haul routes Cathay feeds through Hong Kong.

Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd. (대한항공)003490

Seoul Incheon is a rival Northeast Asian transfer hub disputing the same transpacific and Asia-Europe connecting flows.

Qatar AirwaysNot tracked

State-owned Gulf carrier that draws Asian passengers onto its Doha hub for Europe, Africa and the Americas, the same one-stop itineraries Cathay sells.

Hong Kong Airlines Limited (香港航空)Not tracked

Privately held rival operating from the same home airport, competing head-on with Cathay on Asia-Pacific regional routes where yields have been falling.

Bilan & Liquidités

Chiffre d'affaires

$126.50B

12 derniers mois jusqu'au dernier trimestre publié — estimation à partir de ratios par action

Résultat net

$12.54B

12 derniers mois jusqu'au dernier trimestre publié — estimation à partir de ratios par action

Flux de trésorerie libre

$15.46B

Capitaux propres totaux

$58.02B

Passif total

$63.49B

Ratio de liquidité général

0.44

Couverture des intérêts

-

Dette/EBITDA

2.79

Bénéfice par action

Chiffre d'affaires & Résultat net

Flux de trésorerie libre

Décomposition du résultat

État historique

Marges dans le temps

La dette dans le temps

Le poids de la dette

Grille de la croissance

Croissance — Chiffre d'affaires

Estimation de la juste valeur

CycliqueSous-évalué

Juste valeur

$19.76

Prix actuel

$14.74

Marge de sécurité

+25.4%

Fourchette de juste valeur

$15.37 - $24.16

Écart entre les méthodes de valorisation utilisées, pas un intervalle de confiance calibré statistiquement.

Méthodes d'estimation

Objectif de cours des analystes:$16.09
Flux de trésorerie actualisés (DCF):Non applicable à ce type d'entreprise
Multiple de résultat (P/E):$16.92
Formule de croissance de Graham:Non applicable à ce type d'entreprise
Valeur de la capacité bénéficiaire (EPV):$25.31
P/B justifié:Non applicable à ce type d'entreprise
Actualisation des dividendes (Gordon):Non applicable à ce type d'entreprise
P/FFO, les fonds provenant de l'exploitation:Non applicable à ce type d'entreprise
Bénéfices de milieu de cycle:Données insuffisantes pour le calculer
Multiple sur le chiffre d'affaires:Non applicable à ce type d'entreprise
Consensus des analystes:Acheter (12B / 4H / 0S)
Dernière surprise sur les résultats:-22.94%

Indicateurs de valorisation

Ratio P/E

7.15

ROE

24.5%

Ratio P/B

1.54

P/FCF

5.64

Marge brute

65.2%

ROIC

8.2%

Radar de rentabilité

Création de valeur (avantage concurrentiel)

ROIC

8.2%

WACC

4.6%

ROIC − WACC

+3.6 pp

Le ROIC dépasse le coût du capital — l'entreprise crée de la valeur pour les actionnaires.

Critères d'analyse fondamentale

Réussi (16)

  • ROIC 8.2%
  • Gross Margin 65.2%
  • P/FCF 5.64
  • P/B Ratio 1.54
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 12.3%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Undervalued)
  • ROE 22.7%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 20.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 75% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 50.5%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.58
  • Net Margin Trend 9.3% vs 9.2%

Échoué (4)

  • Price CAGR 4.57%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

Indisponible (7)

  • EPS data insufficient
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
  • Share Dilution (missing shares data)

Score F de Piotroski

2/9

Préoccupations financières sérieuses

score
criteria

Qualité des bénéfices

2.58

Qualité élevée : bénéfices soutenus par la trésorerie

Dilution du capital

-

Rachat d'actions. Favorable aux actionnaires

Participations institutionnelles

Aucune déclaration institutionnelle pour cette entreprise.

Gouvernance

Équipe dirigeante

NomTitreÂge
Mr. Guy Martin Coutts Bradley J.P.Executive Chairman of the Board59
Mr. Siu Por LamCEO & Executive Director52
Ms. Rebecca Jane SharpeCFO & Executive Director54
Mr. James John McGowanChief Operations & Service Delivery Officer and Executive Director52
Ms. Hoi Zee LauChief Customer & Commercial Officer and Executive Director54
Mr. Keith FungGeneral Manager of Corporate Finance-
Ms. Joanna LaiGroup General Counsel & Company Secretary40
Ms. Patricia HwangDirector of People-
Christopher J. BuckleyHead of Financial Service-
Mr. Jonathan NgRegional Head of Customer Travel & Lifestyle - Southeast Asia-

Risque d'audit

3

Risque du conseil

4

Risque de rémunération

5

Risque droits des actionnaires

8

Partie 2 · Le prix et le moment d'entrer

Cette partie ne dit pas si l'entreprise vaut la peine : elle aide à choisir quand l'acheter, une fois que les fondamentaux vous ont convaincu. À l'intérieur : analyse technique, potentiel, baisses historiques, exposition gamma.

Latest News

Recent headlines for CPCAY, sourced from Markets Gazette.

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