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Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT)

Surévalué
TechnologySoftware - ApplicationUnited States

Fondamental

64

Prix

$146.93

Capitalisation boursière

$6.21B

Partie 1 · Ce que vaut l'entreprise

Vue d'ensemble

Commvault Systems is a US software company that sells data protection and 'cyber resiliency' software: tools that back up a company's data, applications and identity systems and then bring them back after a ransomware attack, an outage or an accidental deletion. Its platform, Commvault Cloud, covers workloads that sit on a customer's own servers, in public clouds such as AWS or Azure, and inside SaaS applications, and is packaged into three tiers — Operational Recovery (backup and restore), Autonomous Recovery (automated, tested disaster recovery) and Cyber Recovery (threat and anomaly detection plus recovery into a clean environment). Customers are large enterprises, mid-sized companies and government agencies in banking, insurance, healthcare, manufacturing, energy and the public sector. Revenue for the fiscal year ended 31 March 2026 was $1,183.7 million, up 19% year over year. The company names Rubrik, Cohesity and Veeam as its main competitors, alongside the cloud hyperscalers, and notes that many of them have greater financial resources and larger installed bases.

Comment l'entreprise gagne de l'argent

Commvault sells almost entirely by subscription. A customer either buys a term software licence that it runs itself, or buys the same capability as a SaaS service that Commvault hosts; both are recognised as subscription revenue, which reached $768.3 million in fiscal 2026, 30% more than the year before. Around this sit three smaller streams: customer support contracts ($320.4 million), a shrinking book of legacy perpetual licences ($43.2 million, down 22%) and professional services such as implementation, consulting and training ($51.7 million). The economics are recurring rather than transactional — total annual recurring revenue was $1,121.6 million at 31 March 2026, up 21%, of which SaaS ARR was $400.2 million, and the SaaS net dollar retention rate was 122%, meaning existing SaaS customers spent 22% more than a year earlier. Commvault reaches buyers mostly through other people: roughly 90% of fiscal 2026 revenue came through indirect channels — resellers, distributors, systems integrators, OEMs and cloud marketplaces — and only about 10% directly.

Chiffre d'affaires par segment

Subscription (term licences and SaaS)64.9%

Term-based software licences that customers run themselves and cloud-hosted SaaS offerings, sold to enterprises, mid-sized companies and public bodies. It is the growth engine: $768.3 million in fiscal 2026 against $589.7 million the year before.

Customer support27.1%

Maintenance and technical support contracts attached to software already installed, including the legacy perpetual base. It grew 4% to $320.4 million in fiscal 2026 — a stable annuity rather than a growth line.

Other services4.4%

Professional services sold around the software: implementation, consulting, training and managed services. $51.7 million in fiscal 2026, up 21%.

Perpetual licences3.6%

One-off, indefinite software licences — the model Commvault sold before the shift to subscription. It is deliberately in run-off: $43.2 million in fiscal 2026, 22% lower than the year before.

Avantage concurrentiel

Coûts de changement · Étroit

Backup software is wired into a customer's whole estate — servers, virtual machines, containers, databases, endpoints and SaaS applications — and holds years of retained copies under retention and compliance rules. Ripping it out means re-certifying recovery for every workload and deciding what to do with the existing archive, which makes replacement slow and risky rather than impossible; the 122% SaaS net dollar retention reported for fiscal 2026 is consistent with customers staying and expanding. The limits are real, though: the company itself says it competes with Rubrik, Cohesity and Veeam and with the hyperscalers' own tools, that many rivals have greater financial resources and larger installed bases, and that roughly 90% of its revenue reaches the customer through non-exclusive channel partners who also carry competing products.

Ce qui stimule la demande

Modérément cyclique

Backup and recovery is closer to insurance than to discretionary IT: data must be protected whatever the economy does, retention is often a legal obligation, and ransomware does not wait for an upturn — which is why the subscription base kept compounding (total ARR +21% in fiscal 2026) and support revenue grew even modestly. What does move with the cycle is the size and timing of new deals. Commvault's own filing says enterprise sales and implementation cycles are long and unpredictable, and that economic volatility, trade policy and tariffs can push customers to defer spending; a portion of revenue also depends on government budget cycles. The result is a recurring floor with cyclical expansion on top: renewals hold up in a downturn, new capacity, seat growth and upgrades slow down.

Principaux risques

  • An intensely competitive industry against better-resourced rivals — Commvault states that its industry is intensely competitive and that many competitors have greater financial resources, larger installed customer bases and broader product lines, which may let them outcompete it on features, pricing and market reach.
  • Dependence on indirect sales channels — The company relies on resellers, distributors, systems integrators and OEMs under non-exclusive agreements. Losing a key partner, or a partner choosing to push a competing product, could materially reduce revenue.
  • Pricing pressure and the cost of delivering SaaS — Commvault flags that it may be unable to price competitively while managing the cost of delivering its subscription and SaaS offerings; cloud infrastructure spending is ongoing and substantial, and may not produce the expected return if demand falls short.
  • Long and unpredictable enterprise sales cycles — Sales and implementation cycles with large customers are long and hard to forecast, which makes the timing of revenue uncertain and can swing results from one quarter to the next.
  • Product defects and security vulnerabilities — The solutions are complex and may contain undetected errors, defects or vulnerabilities. For a vendor whose job is protecting other companies' data, such failures would damage customer confidence and raise support costs.
  • Reliance on third-party platforms and interoperability — The products must interoperate with third-party operating systems, cloud environments and hardware. Changes made by those providers, or supply chain disruption, could delay releases or increase costs.
  • Macroeconomic, trade and geopolitical volatility — Volatility in the global economy, including changes in trade policy and tariffs, may cause customers to cut or delay IT spending and may slow collections.
  • Concentration of operations in India and international exposure — Significant operations in India expose the company to wage inflation, competition for talent and political or labour disruption, while international sales bring currency swings, local regulation and geopolitical conflict.
  • Restructuring carried out in fiscal 2026 — New restructuring plans were implemented during fiscal 2026 and the company cannot guarantee they will deliver the intended savings or that they will not disrupt the organisation.
  • Indebtedness, including the convertible notes — Existing and future debt, including the senior convertible notes, limits financial flexibility and could require cash or lead to dilution of existing shareholders.
  • IT failures and cybersecurity incidents at Commvault itself — The company may suffer IT system failures, network disruption or cybersecurity incidents of its own, which could interrupt operations, trigger regulatory penalties and erode customer trust.
  • Exposure to government customers — A portion of revenue comes from government entities, where budget cycles and procurement rules make demand unpredictable and add compliance obligations.

Concentration des clients

Les principaux clients représentent 32% du chiffre d'affaires

The concentration is in distribution, not in end demand. Commvault discloses that one channel partner accounted for 32% of fiscal 2026 revenues (35% in fiscal 2025 and 36% in fiscal 2024) and a second for 11% (below 10% in the prior two years). These are distributors that resell to thousands of end customers, so the underlying demand is spread out — but the commercial relationship runs through a very small number of non-exclusive intermediaries, and the filing names reliance on indirect channels as a risk factor in its own right. No individual end customer is disclosed as exceeding 10% of revenues.

Les arguments en faveur

Buyers argue that Commvault has completed the hard part of a business-model transition that many software companies stumble on: subscription revenue reached $768.3 million in fiscal 2026 and grew 30%, total revenue grew 19% to $1,183.7 million, and total annual recurring revenue reached $1,121.6 million, up 21% — so the great majority of the business is now recurring rather than sold anew each year. They point to SaaS ARR of $400.2 million and a SaaS net dollar retention rate of 122%, which they read as evidence that customers not only stay but buy more, and to the repositioning from plain backup towards cyber recovery — detecting an intrusion and restoring into a clean environment — as a way to sell into security budgets rather than only storage budgets. They also note the reported non-GAAP gross margin of 81.8% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and the breadth of the channel, with roughly 90% of revenue carried by partners the company does not have to pay to employ.

Les arguments contre

Sellers fear that the competitive field is the problem the numbers do not show. Commvault's own filing calls the industry intensely competitive and concedes that many rivals — it names Rubrik, Cohesity and Veeam, plus the cloud hyperscalers whose platforms include their own protection tools — have greater financial resources and larger installed customer bases, which raises the question of whether today's growth can be held without giving ground on price; the filing separately flags the risk of being unable to price competitively while carrying the cost of delivering SaaS. They also point to the fragility hidden in the route to market: about 90% of revenue passes through non-exclusive channel partners, one of which alone accounted for 32% of fiscal 2026 revenues, so a single distributor's change of allegiance matters more than any single customer's. Add the legacy perpetual line shrinking 22%, support revenue growing only 4%, long and unpredictable enterprise sales cycles that make quarters lumpy, restructuring plans launched in fiscal 2026 whose savings the company will not guarantee, convertible notes that could dilute existing holders, and heavy operational concentration in India, and the bear view is of a business that must keep spending to stay in front.

Generated on 18 septembre 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 18 septembre 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: —Score: 61Market cap: —

Named by Commvault as a primary competitor: Rubrik sells a cyber-resilience platform built on immutable backups and ransomware recovery to the same large-enterprise and public-sector buyers.

P/E: 31.3Score: 70Market cap: $347.80B

Its PowerProtect data-protection software and appliances compete for the same enterprise backup budgets, often bundled with the storage infrastructure Commvault's software runs alongside.

P/E: 19.5Score: 58Market cap: $207.90B

IBM Storage Protect and Storage Defender address the same enterprise backup and cyber-recovery requirements, particularly in the banking and public-sector accounts Commvault targets.

Veeam Software Group GmbHNot tracked

Named by Commvault as a primary competitor: Veeam sells backup and recovery software for the same virtual, physical and multi-cloud workloads, and is the vendor Commvault most often meets in enterprise and mid-market deals.

Cohesity, Inc.Not tracked

Named by Commvault as a primary competitor: Cohesity sells backup and secondary-data management to the same enterprise accounts, and after absorbing Veritas NetBackup it holds the largest share of the data protection market.

Druva, Inc.Not tracked

Druva sells cloud-native, fully managed backup for SaaS applications, endpoints and cloud workloads, competing directly with Commvault Cloud's subscription offering.

Bilan & Liquidités

Chiffre d'affaires

$1.22B

12 derniers mois (au 30/06/2026)

Résultat net

$68M

12 derniers mois (au 30/06/2026)

Flux de trésorerie libre

$237M

Capitaux propres totaux

$7M

Passif total

$1.88B

Ratio de liquidité général

2.04

Couverture des intérêts

14.95

Dette/EBITDA

10.88

Bénéfice par action

Chiffre d'affaires & Résultat net

Flux de trésorerie libre

Décomposition du résultat

État historique

Marges dans le temps

La dette dans le temps

Le poids de la dette

Grille de la croissance

Croissance — Chiffre d'affaires

Estimation de la juste valeur

Cas généralSurévalué

Juste valeur

$94.84

Prix actuel

$146.93

Marge de sécurité

-54.9%

Fourchette de juste valeur

$61.64 - $128.03

Écart entre les méthodes de valorisation utilisées, pas un intervalle de confiance calibré statistiquement.

Méthodes d'estimation

Objectif de cours des analystes:$160.55
Flux de trésorerie actualisés (DCF):$112.51
Multiple de résultat (P/E):$39.40
Formule de croissance de Graham:$25.40
Valeur de la capacité bénéficiaire (EPV):$14.71
P/B justifié:$1.38
Actualisation des dividendes (Gordon):Données insuffisantes pour le calculer
P/FFO, les fonds provenant de l'exploitation:$31.27
Bénéfices de milieu de cycle:$45.37
Multiple sur le chiffre d'affaires:$148.22
Consensus des analystes:Acheter (16B / 10H / 0S)
Dernière surprise sur les résultats:+19.93%

Indicateurs de valorisation

Ratio P/E

96.10

ROE

942.8%

Ratio P/B

119.37

P/FCF

24.04

Marge brute

81.1%

ROIC

4.6%

Radar de rentabilité

Création de valeur (avantage concurrentiel)

ROIC

4.6%

WACC

8.4%

ROIC − WACC

-3.7 pp

Le ROIC est inférieur au coût du capital — l'entreprise détruit de la valeur pour chaque dollar investi.

Critères d'analyse fondamentale

Réussi (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 10.71%
  • Price CAGR 11.26%
  • Gross Margin 81.1%
  • P/FCF 24.04
  • Operating Margin 6.1%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 56.1%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 10.3%
  • Analyst Consensus 62% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 11.9%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 3.88
  • Share Dilution -1.3%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Échoué (8)

  • ROIC 4.6%
  • P/B Ratio 119.37
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Net Margin Trend 5.6% vs 7.7%

Indisponible (2)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Score F de Piotroski

5/9

Signaux mixtes : certains domaines nécessitent attention

score
criteria

Qualité des bénéfices

3.88

Qualité élevée : bénéfices soutenus par la trésorerie

Dilution du capital

-1.3%

Rachat d'actions. Favorable aux actionnaires

Participations institutionnelles

Gouvernance

Équipe dirigeante

NomTitreÂge
Mr. Sanjay MirchandaniPresident, CEO & Director61
Mr. Gary MerrillChief Financial Officer50
Ms. Danielle AbrahamsenChief Accounting Officer34
Mr. William Geoffrey HaydonPresident of Customer & Field Operations60
Mr. Pranay AhlawatChief Technology & AI Officer-

Risque d'audit

1

Risque du conseil

1

Risque de rémunération

2

Risque droits des actionnaires

3

Partie 2 · Le prix et le moment d'entrer

Cette partie ne dit pas si l'entreprise vaut la peine : elle aide à choisir quand l'acheter, une fois que les fondamentaux vous ont convaincu. À l'intérieur : analyse technique, potentiel, baisses historiques, exposition gamma.

Documents

  • Rapport annuel (10-K)

    Un aperçu annuel de l'activité, des résultats financiers et des risques de l'entreprise.

    Déposé le 2026-05-11

    Voir le document
  • Rapport trimestriel (10-Q)

    Une mise à jour de la performance financière des trois derniers mois.

    Déposé le 2026-07-29

    Voir le document
  • Rapport d'événement important (8-K)

    Un avis concernant un événement important, comme un changement de direction ou une annonce majeure.

    Déposé le 2026-09-24

    Voir le document

via SEC EDGAR

Historique des résultats

via SEC EDGAR

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