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Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK)

Sous-évalué
Consumer CyclicalFootwear & AccessoriesUnited States

Fondamental

79

Prix

$78.14

Capitalisation boursière

$10.67B

Partie 1 · Ce que vaut l'entreprise

Vue d'ensemble

Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs and sells premium footwear, apparel and accessories under its own brands, above all UGG (sheepskin-based lifestyle footwear) and HOKA (performance running and walking shoes), plus a much smaller 'Other brands' group that is now essentially Teva, after the Sanuk brand was sold and the standalone Koolaburra business was phased out. The company does not own factories: production is placed with independent manufacturers, largely in Southeast Asia. In fiscal year 2026, ended 31 March 2026, net sales were $5.472 billion, up 9.8% year on year, with an operating income of $1.263 billion and diluted earnings per share of $7.02. Goods reach the customer either through third-party retailers and distributors or directly, via company e-commerce sites in 54 countries and 203 owned stores (141 UGG and 62 HOKA) as of 31 March 2026.

Comment l'entreprise gagne de l'argent

Deckers earns revenue by selling physical product, one pair at a time, through two channels. Wholesale — sales to specialty retailers, department stores, online partners and international distributors — generated $3.208 billion in fiscal 2026 (up 12.3%). Direct-to-consumer — its own websites and stores — generated $2.264 billion (up 6.3%, with comparable DTC sales up 4.6%). The direct channel carries the full retail price and therefore a richer margin, which is one reason consolidated gross margin reached 57.7% in fiscal 2026 (57.9% the year before). Geographically, domestic net sales were $3.192 billion and international $2.281 billion, the latter up 26.8%. There is no subscription or recurring-fee element: growth has to come from more pairs sold, higher prices, or a larger share of sales going direct.

Chiffre d'affaires par segment

UGG brand50.1%

Sheepskin-based lifestyle footwear, plus apparel and accessories, sold to consumers who buy largely for comfort and fashion; historically concentrated in the autumn and winter. Net sales were $2.739 billion in fiscal 2026, up 8.2% from $2.531 billion.

HOKA brand47.3%

Performance running, trail and walking footwear sold to runners and to a widening base of everyday wearers, through running specialty shops, sporting-goods retailers and HOKA's own stores and site. Net sales were $2.587 billion in fiscal 2026, up 15.9% from $2.233 billion.

Other brands2.7%

Essentially the Teva outdoor sandal brand, after the sale of Sanuk and the phase-out of Koolaburra's standalone operations. Net sales were $146.2 million in fiscal 2026, down 33.9% from $221.2 million, a decline the company attributes to those two exits.

Avantage concurrentiel

Marque · Étroit

What Deckers owns is desire for two names. UGG has held a distinctive position for two decades and HOKA has built one fast among runners; the company holds trademark registrations for HOKA, UGG and Teva in the US and in many other markets, which is what stops copies from being sold under the same name. A 57.7% gross margin in fiscal 2026 shows customers accept a premium price. But the advantage is narrow, and the company says so itself: footwear is subject to rapid changes in consumer preference, competition from established players and new entrants is intense, and nothing about a shoe locks a buyer in for the next purchase. The 'Other brands' line, down a third, is a reminder of how quickly a footwear brand that stops resonating is wound down.

Ce qui stimule la demande

Cyclique

A pair of premium shoes is a postponable purchase, and Deckers itself lists economic conditions and discretionary spending among its risk factors. Demand is driven by how fashionable each brand feels at that moment, by running and outdoor participation for HOKA, and by replacement cycles — people buy again when the last pair wears out, not on a schedule. There is a strong seasonal pattern on top of the cycle: the company states that a significant part of UGG's business has historically been seasonal, with the highest share of net sales falling in the third fiscal quarter, the autumn-winter selling season. Wholesale demand also amplifies the cycle, because retailers cut orders ahead of an expected slowdown and restock into a recovery.

Principaux risques

  • Consumer preferences can change faster than the company can respond — Deckers states that the footwear, apparel and accessories industry is subject to rapid changes in consumer preferences, and that failing to anticipate and promptly respond to demand and spending patterns could cost it sales, damage relationships with customers and dilute brand loyalty.
  • Intense competition — The company reports facing intense competition from both established companies and newer entrants, and says that failing to compete effectively could cause its market share to decline, harm its reputation and have a material adverse effect on its financial condition and results.
  • Inventory planning and global supply-chain execution — Deckers warns that if it is unsuccessful at managing inventory planning, forecasting and global supply-chain execution, it may be unable to forecast inventory and working-capital requirements accurately, with a material adverse effect on its financial condition and results.
  • Everything is made by someone else — The company relies on independent manufacturers for all of its production needs, concentrated in Southeast Asia. It states that a failure by those manufacturers to manage their responsibilities would prevent it from filling customer orders, costing sales and harming customer relationships.
  • Dependence on a limited number of warehouses — Deckers relies on a number of warehouse and distribution facilities, and notes that damage to one of them — or disruption caused by bringing new facilities into the network — could have a material adverse effect on the business.
  • Health of its retail customers — The company states that its financial success is influenced by the success of its customers and that the loss of a key customer could have a material adverse effect on results — relevant given that wholesale is the larger of its two channels.
  • Economic conditions and discretionary spending — Deckers lists changes in economic conditions among its risk factors, noting they may adversely affect its financial condition and results of operations — its products are a discretionary purchase.
  • Retaining talent — The company identifies dependence on qualified talent as a risk, stating that an inability to retain or hire executive officers, key employees and skilled staff could prevent it from achieving its strategic objectives.

Concentration des clients

The filing states that no single customer accounted for 10.0% or more of total net sales during fiscal year 2026, and it does not disclose a combined share for the largest customers. Credit exposure is more concentrated than sales: as of 31 March 2026 one customer represented 18.5% of net trade accounts receivable. Deckers also names the loss of a key customer as a risk factor, so the absence of a 10% customer does not mean the wholesale channel — $3.208 billion of the $5.472 billion total — is spread thinly across many small accounts.

Les arguments en faveur

Buyers argue that Deckers owns two brands that are working at the same time, which is rare in footwear: HOKA grew net sales 15.9% to $2.587 billion in fiscal 2026 while UGG, the older franchise, still added 8.2% to $2.739 billion. They point to a 57.7% gross margin and a $1.263 billion operating income on $5.472 billion of sales as evidence that the price premium holds and that the business converts growth into profit without owning factories. They also emphasise the international line — up 26.8% to $2.281 billion against essentially flat domestic sales — as the runway: both brands are far less penetrated outside the United States, and the company's own fiscal 2027 outlook of $5.86–5.91 billion assumes that continues.

Les arguments contre

Sellers fear that this is a fashion business wearing the clothes of a compounder. Roughly 97% of net sales come from just two brands, and the company's own risk factors open with rapid changes in consumer preference and intense competition; if HOKA's momentum among runners fades or UGG cycles out of favour, there is no third leg to absorb it — the 'Other brands' line fell 33.9% to $146.2 million. They note that domestic net sales were nearly flat in fiscal 2026 ($3.192 billion) with all the growth coming from abroad, that gross margin edged down from 57.9% to 57.7%, and that the fiscal 2027 outlook anticipates tariff pressure while explicitly not assuming refunds for tariffs already paid. They also point to the structural exposures the filing names: all production sits with independent manufacturers concentrated in Southeast Asia, a limited set of warehouses, and one customer at 18.5% of net trade receivables.

Generated on 18 septembre 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on 18 septembre 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 16.9Score: 64Market cap: $30.78B

Nike competes with HOKA in performance running footwear and with UGG for the same consumer's casual and lifestyle footwear spending, on a far larger scale.

P/E: 10.4Score: 79Market cap: $5.62B

Crocs, with its clogs and the HEYDUDE brand, competes for the same casual comfort-footwear purchase that drives UGG and Teva sales.

On Holding AGONON

On's Cloud running shoes target the same premium performance runner that HOKA sells to, through the same specialty running retailers and direct-to-consumer channels.

ASICS Corporation (アシックス)7936

ASICS is a performance-first running brand selling cushioned road and trail shoes to the same committed runners HOKA targets, with particular strength in Asia and Europe.

Brooks Sports, Inc.Not tracked

Brooks sells almost exclusively running footwear through the same specialty run shops where HOKA built its following, especially in the United States.

Birkenstock Holding plcBIRK

Birkenstock sells premium-priced comfort sandals, clogs and shearling-lined styles to the same lifestyle customer who buys UGG and Teva.

Bilan & Liquidités

Chiffre d'affaires

$5.53B

12 derniers mois (au 30/06/2026)

Résultat net

$1.01B

12 derniers mois (au 30/06/2026)

Flux de trésorerie libre

$1.10B

Capitaux propres totaux

$2.50B

Passif total

$1.19B

Ratio de liquidité général

2.75

Couverture des intérêts

327.82

Dette/EBITDA

0.35

Bénéfice par action

Chiffre d'affaires & Résultat net

Flux de trésorerie libre

Décomposition du résultat

État historique

Marges dans le temps

La dette dans le temps

Le poids de la dette

Grille de la croissance

Croissance — Chiffre d'affaires

Estimation de la juste valeur

Cas généralSous-évalué

Juste valeur

$176.85

Prix actuel

$78.14

Marge de sécurité

+55.8%

Fourchette de juste valeur

$114.95 - $238.74

Écart entre les méthodes de valorisation utilisées, pas un intervalle de confiance calibré statistiquement.

Méthodes d'estimation

Objectif de cours des analystes:$120.41
Flux de trésorerie actualisés (DCF):$330.67
Multiple de résultat (P/E):$73.25
Formule de croissance de Graham:$361.90
Valeur de la capacité bénéficiaire (EPV):$66.85
P/B justifié:$84.20
Actualisation des dividendes (Gordon):Données insuffisantes pour le calculer
P/FFO, les fonds provenant de l'exploitation:$129.00
Bénéfices de milieu de cycle:$96.71
Multiple sur le chiffre d'affaires:$68.38
Consensus des analystes:Acheter (19B / 12H / 2S)
Dernière surprise sur les résultats:+5.71%

Indicateurs de valorisation

Ratio P/E

11.12

ROE

41.0%

Ratio P/B

4.63

P/FCF

9.54

Marge brute

57.8%

ROIC

35.3%

Radar de rentabilité

Création de valeur (avantage concurrentiel)

ROIC

35.3%

WACC

10.3%

ROIC − WACC

+25.0 pp

Le ROIC dépasse le coût du capital — l'entreprise crée de la valeur pour les actionnaires.

Critères d'analyse fondamentale

Réussi (23)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 8.09%
  • Price CAGR 24.30%
  • ROIC 35.3%
  • Gross Margin 57.8%
  • P/FCF 9.54
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 22.7%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 41.1%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 16.5%
  • Analyst Consensus 58% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 12.5%
  • PEG Ratio 0.41
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.18
  • Share Dilution -4.4%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Échoué (4)

  • P/B Ratio 4.63
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Net Margin Trend 18.4% vs 19.3%

Indisponible (1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Score F de Piotroski

6/9

Signaux mixtes : certains domaines nécessitent attention

score
criteria

Qualité des bénéfices

1.18

Qualité élevée : bénéfices soutenus par la trésorerie

Dilution du capital

-4.4%

Rachat d'actions. Favorable aux actionnaires

Participations institutionnelles

Gouvernance

Équipe dirigeante

NomTitreÂge
Mr. Stefano CarotiCEO, President & Director62
Mr. Steven J. FaschingChief Financial Officer57
Mr. Thomas Garcia J.D.Chief Administrative & Legal Officer52
Ms. Anne SpangenbergPresident of UGG56
Ms. Robin Spring-GreenPresident of HOKA49
Ms. Erinn KohlerVice President of Investor Relations & Corporate Planning-
Ms. Angela OgbechieChief Supply Chain Officer47
Mr. Marco EllerkerPresident of Global Marketplace58
Mr. Joel AnkarbergChief Digital & Data Officer-
Ms. Melissa GallagherChief People Experience Officer-

Risque d'audit

3

Risque du conseil

3

Risque de rémunération

5

Risque droits des actionnaires

7

Partie 2 · Le prix et le moment d'entrer

Cette partie ne dit pas si l'entreprise vaut la peine : elle aide à choisir quand l'acheter, une fois que les fondamentaux vous ont convaincu. À l'intérieur : analyse technique, potentiel, baisses historiques, exposition gamma.

Documents

  • Rapport annuel (10-K)

    Un aperçu annuel de l'activité, des résultats financiers et des risques de l'entreprise.

    Déposé le 2026-05-22

    Voir le document
  • Rapport trimestriel (10-Q)

    Une mise à jour de la performance financière des trois derniers mois.

    Déposé le 2026-07-30

    Voir le document
  • Rapport d'événement important (8-K)

    Un avis concernant un événement important, comme un changement de direction ou une annonce majeure.

    Déposé le 2026-09-15

    Voir le document

via SEC EDGAR

Historique des résultats

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for DECK, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 5/22/2026NEGATIVE
    Deckers Outdoor, UP Fintech And Other Big Stocks Moving Lower In Friday's Pre-Market Session

    Deckers Outdoor Corp. shares experienced a pre-market decline despite exceeding Q4 revenue expectations and issuing fiscal 2027 guidance. While the company's performance metrics met or surpassed analyst forecasts, the market reaction suggests investor concerns may stem from the forward-looking guidance or other unstated factors. This divergence between reported results and stock movement warrants close observation by investors, as it could signal underlying headwinds or a shift in market sentiment towards the company's future prospects.

via Markets Gazette